2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

Friendly reminder that when the Bolivian right made the exact same claims about Morales' reelection, the NYT and other mainstream outlets took them at face value and enabled a coup against him. Just sayin'.

(Not whatabouting obviously. This is just as ludicrous and pathetic)

1. No, it was not “exactly the same.” Not even close. This election took place during a pandemic during which one side told its voters to vote by mail and the other told them not to. We knew going in exactly how this would go down, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why.

2. I wasn’t aware The New York Times had the authority to “enable a coup.”

3. Trying to or not, you ARE “whatabouting” this. By textbook definition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

Friendly reminder that when the Bolivian right made the exact same claims about Morales' reelection, the NYT and other mainstream outlets took them at face value and enabled a coup against him. Just sayin'.

(Not whatabouting obviously. This is just as ludicrous and pathetic)

1. No, it was not “exactly the same.” Not even close. This election took place during a pandemic during which one side told its voters to vote by mail and the other didn’t. We knew going in exactly how this would go down.

2. I wasn’t aware The New York Times had the authority to “enable a coup.”

It was literally the exact same counting logic as you see in the tweet. MAS-supporting areas reported their results later, so the results got better for Morales as the night went on. Then the OAS alleged with no evidence that those late votes were fraudulent.

Anyway let's not derail this.

[ucscgaldamez1]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/11/18/alan-dershowitz-reveals-what-trump-team-legal-challenges-that-could-be-successful-n2580346

I would not be surprised that Dershowitz voted for Trump.

Liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz on Tuesday laid out the Trump campaign's legal strategy for winning the White House through a number of legal challenges. According to Dershowitz, the strategy is to pull electoral votes away from former Vice President Joe Biden.

"The clock is a double-edged sword in this election because if they don't have enough time but if they can put forward a sufficiently strong case then they may be able to get some Republican secretaries of states or legislatures to say, 'Look, we just don't have enough time to certify these electors' and if they can bring down the number of electors, 35 [to] 37, from the 305 and bring it down to 267 or 268 then the election goes to the House, where the Republicans win," he explained.

Dershowitz explained that the Trump Team's legal strategy is to pull enough electors away from Joe Biden that he doesn't meet the 270 threshold by the time the election needs to be certified. He also said there's no possible way for President Trump to get to 270 electoral votes in time.

"The goal is to prevent Biden from getting 270, that's why the clock is a double-edged sword," he said.

According to the Harvard professor, Bush v. Gore will be referenced if and when the Trump campaign's case makes its way to the Supreme Court. The reason: Trump's Team is focusing on the Equal Protection Clause. Their argument is that not all voters were treated equally because some had their ballots counted with an observer while others didn't. Some had rules set by other government officials and not the state legislatures, which the Supreme Court ruled against.

In order for these cases to make their way to the Supreme Court, Dershowitz said "the numbers have to be there," meaning the Trump Team successfully pulls electors away from Biden so the former vice president is no longer at the 270 threshold. The other option is for Trump's lawyers to provide "hard evidence" of irregularities occurring with voting machines, which could call into question hundreds of thousands of votes in various states.

"If that happens, then yes, it will go to the Supreme Court," Dershowitz said. "I think at least under the Constitutional challenge, the Article 2 challenge in Pennsylvania, they have a pretty good chance of winning."

[n1240]

Biden's lead in Nassau nearly 9% with about 10k absentees to count. Could reach 10% still depending on provisional ballot count and how favorable it is to Biden.

[emailking]

If they somehow manage to pull Biden under 270 I think the Dems refuse to seat sufficient Republicans in the House until after they've voted Biden the winner. Like 2 can play at that game.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If they somehow manage to pull Biden under 270 I think the Dems refuse to seat sufficient Republicans in the House until after they've voted Biden the winner. Like 2 can play at that game.

That would require Democratic leadership to suddenly discover a spine.

[Tender Branson]

MA has certified its results.

Galvin’s office said Thursday afternoon it had officially certified that 3,657,972 ballots were cast in the election, equalling 76 percent of registered voters and shattering the previous turnout record set in 2016 by nearly 300,000 votes.

This is 130.000 more votes than Dave shows, but the results are not on their website yet.

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/11/19/massachusetts-2020-turnout

[Non Swing Voter]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/11/18/alan-dershowitz-reveals-what-trump-team-legal-challenges-that-could-be-successful-n2580346

I would not be surprised that Dershowitz voted for Trump.

Liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz on Tuesday laid out the Trump campaign's legal strategy for winning the White House through a number of legal challenges. According to Dershowitz, the strategy is to pull electoral votes away from former Vice President Joe Biden.

"The clock is a double-edged sword in this election because if they don't have enough time but if they can put forward a sufficiently strong case then they may be able to get some Republican secretaries of states or legislatures to say, 'Look, we just don't have enough time to certify these electors' and if they can bring down the number of electors, 35 [to] 37, from the 305 and bring it down to 267 or 268 then the election goes to the House, where the Republicans win," he explained.

Dershowitz explained that the Trump Team's legal strategy is to pull enough electors away from Joe Biden that he doesn't meet the 270 threshold by the time the election needs to be certified. He also said there's no possible way for President Trump to get to 270 electoral votes in time.

"The goal is to prevent Biden from getting 270, that's why the clock is a double-edged sword," he said.

According to the Harvard professor, Bush v. Gore will be referenced if and when the Trump campaign's case makes its way to the Supreme Court. The reason: Trump's Team is focusing on the Equal Protection Clause. Their argument is that not all voters were treated equally because some had their ballots counted with an observer while others didn't. Some had rules set by other government officials and not the state legislatures, which the Supreme Court ruled against.

In order for these cases to make their way to the Supreme Court, Dershowitz said "the numbers have to be there," meaning the Trump Team successfully pulls electors away from Biden so the former vice president is no longer at the 270 threshold. The other option is for Trump's lawyers to provide "hard evidence" of irregularities occurring with voting machines, which could call into question hundreds of thousands of votes in various states.

"If that happens, then yes, it will go to the Supreme Court," Dershowitz said. "I think at least under the Constitutional challenge, the Article 2 challenge in Pennsylvania, they have a pretty good chance of winning."

This guy is a perfect example of the perils of lifetime faculty tenure.

[Tender Branson]

I would assume that GA will use the recount numbers to certify and will do so today ?

[Non Swing Voter]

I would assume that GA will use the recount numbers to certify and will do so today ?

Yes that is what a GA elections guy said on tv earlier. 

They will certify Friday.  Then Trump has 2 business days to request a recount (which of course he will).  Then they'll recount it with machines and hopefully will be done with the process before Thanksgiving.  But certification will occur tomorrow/today depending on time zone.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Margin map so far of the certified results.

Mississippi and Wyoming have also certified their results.

[Bootes Void]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/11/18/alan-dershowitz-reveals-what-trump-team-legal-challenges-that-could-be-successful-n2580346

I would not be surprised that Dershowitz voted for Trump.

Liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz on Tuesday laid out the Trump campaign's legal strategy for winning the White House through a number of legal challenges. According to Dershowitz, the strategy is to pull electoral votes away from former Vice President Joe Biden.

"The clock is a double-edged sword in this election because if they don't have enough time but if they can put forward a sufficiently strong case then they may be able to get some Republican secretaries of states or legislatures to say, 'Look, we just don't have enough time to certify these electors' and if they can bring down the number of electors, 35 [to] 37, from the 305 and bring it down to 267 or 268 then the election goes to the House, where the Republicans win," he explained.

Dershowitz explained that the Trump Team's legal strategy is to pull enough electors away from Joe Biden that he doesn't meet the 270 threshold by the time the election needs to be certified. He also said there's no possible way for President Trump to get to 270 electoral votes in time.

"The goal is to prevent Biden from getting 270, that's why the clock is a double-edged sword," he said.

According to the Harvard professor, Bush v. Gore will be referenced if and when the Trump campaign's case makes its way to the Supreme Court. The reason: Trump's Team is focusing on the Equal Protection Clause. Their argument is that not all voters were treated equally because some had their ballots counted with an observer while others didn't. Some had rules set by other government officials and not the state legislatures, which the Supreme Court ruled against.

In order for these cases to make their way to the Supreme Court, Dershowitz said "the numbers have to be there," meaning the Trump Team successfully pulls electors away from Biden so the former vice president is no longer at the 270 threshold. The other option is for Trump's lawyers to provide "hard evidence" of irregularities occurring with voting machines, which could call into question hundreds of thousands of votes in various states.

"If that happens, then yes, it will go to the Supreme Court," Dershowitz said. "I think at least under the Constitutional challenge, the Article 2 challenge in Pennsylvania, they have a pretty good chance of winning."

What the hell is this?

[Gustaf]

"Liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz"

lol

[Gustaf]

So much like election night red states are off to a quick advantage in certification and Trump has way more electoral votes locked up.  Democrats are terrible with optics.

I wonder what we'd find if all these deep red states' election processes were subject to the same scrutiny that the swing states are getting?

Exactly.  The big city vote has been pretty stable.  The places that have had wild upticks in voter participation have mostly been rural (despite population loss). 

This whole thing is a joke and shows how ridiculous the gerrymandering abuse is.  Now Trump is trying to get legislators to overturn state results in places like Michigan, which are only GOP legislatures in the first place because of gerrymandering. 

So basically gerrymander -> legislators pick President -> President puts GOP hack judges -> Judges affirm gerrymandering. 

They basically never get held accountable.  The scary thing is this is exactly what these traitors want.

Republicans hate America and have done a pretty good job of destroying it. The US might become  just another quasi-fascist banana republic at this rate.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dershowitz, Rudy and Trump were all palling around with Epstein for decades. Dershowitz is being accused of sexual assault by one of Epstein's under age girls. Sad!

Any thoughts Q-Anon?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So will Trump now claim in Caps Lock tweets that Georgia was illegally stolen from him by Republicans Brad Raffensperger and Brian Kemp? Or is he too concerned that would make him look like a sucker and a cuck?

[Hnv1]

What up in Duchess Co.? is Trump really winning or they failed to count absentees and mail ins?

[Tender Branson]

Total votes cast & turnouts (2016 => 2020) of the certified states so far:



The numbers are slightly different for a few states compared to Prof. McDonald's numbers.

They also include ballots cast for offices other than President.

Most states are reporting "total ballots cast", but some like OK don't (so this is an estimate based on their turnout and registration numbers), while other red-shaded states only report those counts later ...

WY had more ballots cast than registered voters, but that's always the case there. WY allows election-day registration.

[n1240]

What up in Duchess Co.? is Trump really winning or they failed to count absentees and mail ins?

0 mail-in counted, Biden probably wins by 9% once they do.

[wbrocks67]

New Jersey has gone the way of CO, late ballots have trended D and moved it back up again. Was down to D+15.5, now up to Biden +16.1.

Wonder if the same thing will happen in CA with late arriving/processed ballots.

[n1240]

New Jersey has gone the way of CO, late ballots have trended D and moved it back up again. Was down to D+15.5, now up to Biden +16.1.

Wonder if the same thing will happen in CA with late arriving/processed ballots.

CA only has about 300k left and they aren't from collectively from areas overwhelming for Biden (remaining ballots have roughly a 6 point R lean relative to state as a whole) so it might be difficult for CA to trend that much further up. Late late ballots in counties that are already complete didn't really have that much of a D lean as far as I know.

[Kalimantan]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

The problem here is that you're applying logic to argue a Trump tweet lol

We should just make our own twisted data set for NC and OH

[Badger]

he losin his mind

what is that?

sane messages from the most attractive person ever

If by most attractive you mean most punchable face ever oh, sure.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

The problem here is that you're applying logic to argue a Trump tweet lol

We should just make our own twisted data set for NC and OH

He's going to use these tweets is court lol.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329761125404205057

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

The problem here is that you're applying logic to argue a Trump tweet lol

We should just make our own twisted data set for NC and OH

He's going to use these tweets is court lol.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329761125404205057

I confess to a morbid sort of curiosity. Is he repeating this sort of crap in complete bad faith, knowing his supports will believe it or at least pretend to? Or is he personally so delusional and willfully ignorant that he really believes his own BS?