2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Inmate Trump]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

It doesn't do him any good to run up the score in a state that's already extremely blue. Would have been much more helpful to get a 6 point swing in North Carolina.

On the other hand, we won Georgia...the first time the state went blue since 1992...so we still won in a "landslide."  I'd call pulling Georgia out of it's red hold is pretty good.

[Roll Roons]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

It doesn't do him any good to run up the score in a state that's already extremely blue. Would have been much more helpful to get a 6 point swing in North Carolina.

On the other hand, we won Georgia...the first time the state went blue since 1992...so we still won in a "landslide."  I'd call pulling Georgia out of it's red hold is pretty good.

He definitely deserves credit for that. But winning North Carolina by a couple points would have likely pulled Cunningham over the line, making the runoff task that much easier.

[Ferguson97]

Biden breaks 80M

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080

[Gass3268]

Looking at the Massachusetts results, Biden flipped 40 towns/cities and Trump only won 53.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm curious to see how long the 80 million record will stand. The NPV winner of 2024 could very well get fewer votes.

[Gass3268]

Erie County absentees have been posted:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331262450784722947?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure if this was pointed out yet, but Biden flipped Clinton, Rockland, and Essex counties in NY, according to the DDH. Essex was a Trump county in 2016.

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

done (including Erie results from Wasserman)

Standard:



Swings:

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1331265475205066759

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1331265475205066759

https://twitter.com/GovernorTomWolf/status/1331263684681867266?s=20

[Tender Branson]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1331265475205066759

https://twitter.com/GovernorTomWolf/status/1331263684681867266?s=20

So, did those lagging counties submit their data today ?

Or does the certificate from Wolf still miss some votes ?

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if this was pointed out yet, but Biden flipped Clinton, Rockland, and Essex counties in NY, according to the DDH. Essex was a Trump county in 2016.

Based on what we've seen so far, what are we looking like for a final margin in NY? Will Biden cross 60%/break Hillary's +22.5?

[Wiz in Wis]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

Trump only nets about 300-400 votes tops if you extrapolate it out.

Actually, you'd extrapolate it out to 160. Milwaukee and Dane are clearly not rejecting ballots for the same reasons, which seems odd, unless there is something non-random about the counts we are not aware of (like if Dane is doing absentee's first and Milwaukee is doing day of first).

[Gass3268]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

Trump only nets about 300-400 votes tops if you extrapolate it out.

Actually, you'd extrapolate it out to 160. Milwaukee and Dane are clearly not rejecting ballots for the same reasons, which seems odd, unless there is something non-random about the counts we are not aware of (like if Dane is doing absentee's first and Milwaukee is doing day of first).

This is fun:

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1331267255947194371?s=20

[Wiz in Wis]

So... this seems likely to help Biden a smidge:

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1331267255947194371

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1331265475205066759

https://twitter.com/GovernorTomWolf/status/1331263684681867266?s=20

So, did those lagging counties submit their data today ?

Or does the certificate from Wolf still miss some votes ?

I read that the state can certify even if only a few counties are behind.

[wbrocks67]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania certifies results of 2020 presidential election, giving Biden win

The Certificate of Ascertainment included the following vote totals:

Electors for Democratic Party candidates Joseph R. Biden and Kamala D. Harris – 3,458,229

Electors for Republican Party candidates Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence – 3,377,674

Electors for Libertarian Party candidates Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy Spike Cohen – 79,380

https://local21news.com/news/local/gov-wolf-pennsylvania-has-certified-results-of-2020-presidential-election

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-pennsylvania-elections-8a61a1609d7a0d60c1db13fa8e7c3019

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1331265475205066759

https://twitter.com/GovernorTomWolf/status/1331263684681867266?s=20

So, did those lagging counties submit their data today ?

Or does the certificate from Wolf still miss some votes ?

I read that the state can certify even if only a few counties are behind.

That’s extremely absurd from PA.

You only certify a result if all votes have been reported.

[Tender Branson]

Wolf’s Certificate of Ascertainment for PA contains fewer votes than Cook’s Vote Tracker ...

[wbrocks67]

Wolf’s Certificate of Ascertainment for PA contains fewer votes than Cook’s Vote Tracker ...

Yeah, cert has Biden at 3.458, while Cook has Biden at 3.459

[Wiz in Wis]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

[wbrocks67]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

Was this particular anti-Trump sentiment or was Biden just a good fit, or are both MA/MD just on a continued blueward trend?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/1331271633319890944