2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Your dates for December are a little off, pbrower; today is only the 2nd.

He's only posting a modified, weird version of my updated post on top of the first page (but why ?)

[Tender Branson]

D.C. has certified today.

Sadly, no further votes added - which means the capital had a swing towards Trump of 0.02% vs. 2016.

https://electionresults.dcboe.org/election_results/2020-General-Election

[Tender Branson]

Forget pbrower's updates, here's the correct one:

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

42/51:

211 Trump
162 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Alaska
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas
Washington
West Virginia

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Oregon

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Colorado (missed Nov. 30 deadline)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

12/51 states (+DC) have now submitted their Certificates of Ascertainment to the National Archives.

Pretty slow if you ask me, but I guess it will pick up speed during the next week ...

[Tender Branson]

According to the AP results page, the following states are at 100% (and therefore official):

32/51

Not sure why they are not rating WA, PA, NC and others as 100% counted when they ran headlines on their own that their results are certified ...

[DINGO Joe]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

[Antonio the Sixth]

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

yes need a rework for the 0.5% or 0.6% if and that remain in NY&CA is enough

The practice of adjusting exit poll crosstabs to actual results is deeply unscientific and makes them less reliable, not more.

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Do you have the exact numbers, by any chance?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The "% counted" figures used by the media are just estimates iirc. Actual State elections administrators obviously know better.

[Roll Roons]

At this point, is NY the only state with a lot of outstanding ballots?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

At this point, is NY the only state with a lot of outstanding ballots?

California as well in some counties.

[iceman]

At this point, is NY the only state with a lot of outstanding ballots?

California as well in some counties.

California is basically done. Less than 20,000 votes I presume left to count.

[iceman]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

[Bootes Void]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

one is a swing state  while the other isnt. Also no campaign spends money in NY and lastly the election board in NY are laughably incompetent

[iceman]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

one is a swing state  while the other isnt. Also no campaign spends money in NY and lastly the election board in NY are laughably incompetent

Not really, there are safe states with arguably very high turnout e.g. Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts. In fact all 9 states in the NE US have very high turnouts, except for New York. I reckon this is probably due to the fact that NYC has a very low turnout which would probably drag down the state as a whole. But then again, the upstate NY also has very low turnout compared to other areas in the rust belt.

[Crucial Waukesha]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

one is a swing state  while the other isnt. Also no campaign spends money in NY and lastly the election board in NY are laughably incompetent

Not really, there are safe states with arguably very high turnout e.g. Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts.

Oregon and Washington mail ballots to every voter.  NY has an antiquated system that makes it difficult for people to vote, especially absentee

[iceman]

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Total number of votes in New York probably hovers around 8.5-8.6 Million. In contrast to Florida which has about 11.4 Million votes. Why such big discrepancy in turnout between the 2 states with approximately the same population size?

one is a swing state  while the other isnt. Also no campaign spends money in NY and lastly the election board in NY are laughably incompetent

Not really, there are safe states with arguably very high turnout e.g. Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts.

Oregon and Washington mail ballots to every voter.  NY has an antiquated system that makes it difficult for people to vote, especially absentee

If that so, then an electoral reform should be in order after this embarassing predicament.

[DINGO Joe]

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

yes need a rework for the 0.5% or 0.6% if and that remain in NY&CA is enough

The practice of adjusting exit poll crosstabs to actual results is deeply unscientific and makes them less reliable, not more.

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Do you have the exact numbers, by any chance?

No, I'm just basing the estimate off of counties that have fully reported, like Nassau and assume that they match the same type of increase compared to 2016.  So, presumably Suffolk has about 150-160 thousand votes left to report and Westchester 100,000 or so.

[FrancoAgo]

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

yes need a rework for the 0.5% or 0.6% if and that remain in NY&CA is enough

The practice of adjusting exit poll crosstabs to actual results is deeply unscientific and makes them less reliable, not more.

yes, but they did
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-day-exit-polls/story?id=73792952
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

[jimrtex]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate). Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

Michigan: Ken Blackwell (R). Two candidates with fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!"

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Pennsylvania.

I did not recognize any electors for Kentucky, Maine, or Massachusetts. Anybody see any notables?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334281667498958848

[Bootes Void]

Biden just cracked 5 million votes in NY. First ever candidate to ever do so.

He also has more votes in Florida a state he lost than in New York, a state he will win 20%%+ despite both states having a  similar population

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate). Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

Michigan: Ken Blackwell (R). Two candidates with fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!"

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Pennsylvania.

I did not recognize any electors for Kentucky, Maine, or Massachusetts. Anybody see any notables?

LaChapelle is the Mayor of Easthampton, but that's only notable within Western Massachusetts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

yes need a rework for the 0.5% or 0.6% if and that remain in NY&CA is enough

The practice of adjusting exit poll crosstabs to actual results is deeply unscientific and makes them less reliable, not more.

As bad as NYC is, Suffolk and Winchester still have more than 100,000 votes each to report

Do you have the exact numbers, by any chance?

No, I'm just basing the estimate off of counties that have fully reported, like Nassau and assume that they match the same type of increase compared to 2016.  So, presumably Suffolk has about 150-160 thousand votes left to report and Westchester 100,000 or so.

I see. So best guess is that Biden nets 50k votes out of Suffolk (winning VBM by 33 points, losing the county overall by 3) and maybe 60k out of Westchester (winning VBM by 60 points and the county as a whole by 35).

Applied to the national popular vote (using Cook numbers since they're the more up to date) this should bring the popular vote margin up to 4.45. That's guaranteed to flip NC blue on the trend map (f**king kill me now...) and it could actually flip ND if these estimates turn out to be a tad too conservative.

Statewide, it should bring the margin up to 23.05 points, a Democratic swing of 0.55 and a Republican trend of 1.8. This could of course get up a bit more with what's left Upstate.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden could lose NY and still win the EC, in 2012 Obama could have lost CA and still won the EC.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I see. So best guess is that Biden nets 50k votes out of Suffolk (winning VBM by 33 points, losing the county overall by 3) and maybe 60k out of Westchester (winning VBM by 60 points and the county as a whole by 35)

Honestly, I think those could both be underestimates.