2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Westmoreland Co PA (per CNN), with a 64/35 Trump lead overall, added some mail ballots that went 61/37 Biden.

[Asta]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

I can't speak for latinos or blacks, but i can contribute a bit as an Asian that most Asians, particularly older ones, are socially conservative. If exit polls are correct that Asians swing toward Trump, I'm not surprised by it because my anecdotal experience corresponds with it as well.

Many of us have first generation immigrant parents that would vote for the conservative party of our native country.

We have identified as non-privileged minorities and sided as Obama's coalition but strangely enough, I have begun to observe more than a few around me that, despite Trump's rhetorics, seem to sympathize, and even extol merits in his behaviors (media is untrustworthy, BLM is rude)

These are some of the things I have heard over the last 4 years. It's unfortunate that Trump will be written in history as racially depolarizing candidate but whether this happened because of him and not in spite of him is less conspicuous to me. I'm still of the belief that Kasich would have won OH by double digits and Midwest convincingly over Clinton and Biden. (Kasich had a positive net approval among blacks in 2016) In some sense, one can argue that electing Trump might have decelerated Democrats' collapse among non-whites.

Adding on to this with Latinos and Hispanics, if I can, with the exception of Cubans, who can never be grouped in the rest, you have to remember a few things. First is that most Latinos are very socially conservative, they're mainly catholic, so that plays a lot, they can be swayed. Another thing is the whole "Latinx" crowd, for politically active Latinos, even democrats if they're not young SJW's, I've found that it very much pisses them off, I've also seen many feel, especially in rural areas, used by Democrats that they've voted for for decades, look in TX-23 in those rural Latino areas.

Many blacks are socially conservative as well. I speculate that 2024 GOP candidate will do even better with blacks and Hispanics.

I don't think I can say this without sounding racially insensitive but I will say it anyway. Democrats need to hit reasonable floor with white voters. I'm glad that Biden was the nominee over Sanders even if I didn't like his foreign policy. Bernie would have done better with Hispanics but would have done horribly with whites, especially moderate ones in AZ, GA, FL and TX.

Even before the outcome, I knew Biden would be a far better shot at AZ and GA. I am saying this as someone who supported Sanders in 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

Westmoreland Co PA (per CNN), with a 64/35 Trump lead overall, added some mail ballots that went 61/37 Biden.

"Here's how Trump can win PA..."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Didn't Nicole Wallace say earlier today that she believed NBC will call the race when and if Biden's PA margin reached 35k (which would be 0.5%)?  This should be right around what we get out of the Allegheny dump.

[Horus]

The "Here's how Trump can still win" game that the networks are playing is actually extremely unethical and dangerous. They're framing this like it's a football game or something that Biden came back and won in the 4th quarter. All of these votes were cast on or before election day, and we've been able to project the results of PA and Nevada (and possibly Arizona) for over 48 hours now. They're playing right into Trump's desire to delegitimize the election.

Most of the big networks want four more years of Trump for ratings, this shouldn't be a surprise. They are a repulsive group of people.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden lead up to 14K in PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn't Nicole Wallace say earlier today that she believed NBC will call the race when and if Biden's PA margin reached 35k (which would be 0.5%)?  This should be right around what we get out of the Allegheny dump.

He's currently +14,281 per CNN's sidebar.

[Baki]

Arizona SoS was just live on CNN and said that the state has around 250000 ballots outstanding.
Biggest numbers by counties if I heard correctly:

Maricopa ~ 140000
Pinal ~ 35000
Pima ~ 25000
Apache ~10000
Cochise ~ 10000

EDIT: She also said that an update is expected tonight around 9PM ET and that update should be mostly (if not exclusively) Maricopa and should bring the total uncounted number in Maricopa under 100000.
Furthermore, she said that it is expected that all these outstanding are supposed to be counted by the end of weekend.

[sguberman]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

Because this is how long the ballots are:

Front side: https://i.ibb.co/RgPsjSn/FCFE6361-BBDC-4-BBA-81-EA-A510333-FD940.jpg

Back side: https://i.ibb.co/Wvx51v1/5-FC33672-2-A19-4-C05-AE71-65-D9-F8-D0-A6-A2.jpg

Tiny bit off topic but there seriously needs to be a discussion on how many elected officials there are at the local and state levels in this country. I say at best the only elected officials should be House, Senate, State Legislature, President, Governor, City/County council members, mayors and maybe attorney generals and district attorneys the rest should be appointed and in some cases such as sheriffs outright get rid of.

[TopShelfGoal]

According to exit polls published by the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html) Trump has doubled his share of LGBTQ voters since 2016. Can someone explain this?

Exit polls are useless right now. Atleast until they are properly weighted, maybe not even then.

[DaleCooper]

Some people that need to get some blame here are the election officials (Democrats included) that keep giving us wishful thinking estimates of when the votes will be counted. PA was supposed to have counted almost all of their remaining votes overnight for the past two days.

[n1240]

Arizona SoS was just live on CNN and said that the state has around 250000 ballots outstanding.
Biggest numbers by counties if I heard correctly:

Maricopa ~ 140000
Pinal ~ 35000
Pima ~ 25000
Apache ~10000
Cochise ~ 10000

Pinal has 27k per their website (they recently updated).

[Crumpets]

Looks like Trump just got the tiniest of bumps in Georgia. Biden's lead is now 1,555. I don't remember exactly what it was a few minutes ago, but I think it was somewhere in the 1,610 range.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dan Crenshaw slaps down Georgia's newest Qongresswoman:

https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1324806575597461504

[DaleCooper]

I expect Greene to be censured within the first month or so of the next congress.

[Calthrina950]

Looking through the county level swings from NYT. A couple areas stand out (Latinos4Trump, Mormons coming home, trendz in southern Midwest and non-deep south, Blue Wall reforming, angry New England women, D.C. hates orange man)

Geez, though, the bottom really fell out in Colorado and the Atlanta metro for the GOP; I think it's safe to say that Colorado is blue for the foreseeable future, and the Republicans are clearly in freefall in Georgia. Well done, Stacey Abrams; really hope ATL isn't maxed out for Democrats quite yet. This should also be setting off alarm bells for the GOP, because if something like this were to happen in North Carolina the state is instantly light blue, although I'm not sure if the Democrats have as much room to grow there.

Agree with both, although Colorado's shift to the Democrats is thanks to the Denver Metropolitan Area-without which Republicans cannot win here. Biden has become the first Democrat ever to win more than 80% of the vote in Denver, and he carried Arapahoe County with more than 60% of the vote. Adams and Jefferson Counties both backed Biden by double digits; he lost Douglas County by just 7% and El Paso County by 11%, both significant improvements over previous Democratic performances; and he won Larimer County by double digits as well.

However, the Hispanic and WWC swing to Trump could still be observed here. Trump held Huerfano, Las Animas, and Conejos Counties; Biden flipped back Pueblo County, but with only a 2% plurality; and Trump flipped Alamosa County. Trump also managed to hold Grand County in the end, but Chaffee and Garfield Counties did flip to Biden. All in all, I'm still shocked by how much Biden improved over Clinton here; he's getting 55.16%, while Clinton only got 48.16%. The bulk of 2016's third-party vote consolidated behind Biden here, and he also won large numbers of new voters.

[lfromnj]

Riggleman was also trying to talkdown MGT a few weeks ago. She has not underperformed much actually.

[Bootes Void]

I expect Greene to be censured within the first month or so of the next congress.

I hope democrats use her as the new aoc/ilhan omar boogeymam(woman) among swing voters

[Storr]

Dan Crenshaw slaps down Georgia's newest Qongresswoman:

https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1324806575597461504

I see you Dan.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1324820545645514753
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1324820547251916800

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The "Here's how Trump can still win" game that the networks are playing is actually extremely unethical and dangerous. They're framing this like it's a football game or something that Biden came back and won in the 4th quarter. All of these votes were cast on or before election day, and we've been able to project the results of PA and Nevada (and possibly Arizona) for over 48 hours now. They're playing right into Trump's desire to delegitimize the election.

Most of the big networks want four more years of Trump for ratings, this shouldn't be a surprise. They are a repulsive group of people.

I would bet ready money that, nel segreto della cabina elettorale, more than one of these CNN and MSNBC talking heads who have become famous for talking about how evil Trump is have voted for him twice now.

[DrScholl]

I'm expecting her to pull a gun on somebody on the House floor at some point. She did imply that she wanted to kill members of the Squad.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Arizona SoS was just live on CNN and said that the state has around 250000 ballots outstanding.
Biggest numbers by counties if I heard correctly:

Maricopa ~ 140000
Pinal ~ 35000
Pima ~ 25000
Apache ~10000
Cochise ~ 10000

Pinal has 27k per their website (they recently updated).

Than that means trump is locked out, call it!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1324815171051663360

[Battista Minola 1616]

The "Here's how Trump can still win" game that the networks are playing is actually extremely unethical and dangerous. They're framing this like it's a football game or something that Biden came back and won in the 4th quarter. All of these votes were cast on or before election day, and we've been able to project the results of PA and Nevada (and possibly Arizona) for over 48 hours now. They're playing right into Trump's desire to delegitimize the election.

Most of the big networks want four more years of Trump for ratings, this shouldn't be a surprise. They are a repulsive group of people.

I would bet ready money that, nel segreto della cabina elettorale, more than one of these CNN and MSNBC talking heads who have become famous for talking about how evil Trump is have voted for him twice now.

Nel segreto della cabina elettorale Dio ti vede, the owner of your TV show no.