2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DrScholl]

Seems like this thread will be garbage bickering and evidence-free hot takes for the near future.

Side note--is there any way to turn off seeing signatures? Users with huge signatures annoy the sh**t out of me. If I see that photo of Joni Ernst one more time I'm taking a long walk.

If you look under Look and Layout under your profile settings tab you will see a box you can check that says "Don't show users signatures".

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324061986779504642?s=21
Lmao

We already know he's going to do this. I truly hope Biden wins the remaining states so the Electoral Map looks even better and Biden can hit at least 4 million more votes in the popular vote. Best part of this, is the fact the GOP are losing the popular vote and claiming voter fraud and the election being stolen. I know we're stuck with the Electoral College but eventually I would love to see it gone.

[ultraviolet]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

I repeat. There is ZERO path to the senate. Absolutely zero. Anyone who wants me to put my money where my mouth is, let me know. I’ll give 4 to 1 odds

Why would you give 4 to 1 odds if you think there is zero chance? Put your money where your mouth is: 0 to 1 odds.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324061986779504642?s=21
Lmao

We already know he's going to do this. I truly hope Biden wins the remaining states so the Electoral Map looks even better and Biden can hit at least 4 million more votes in the popular vote. Best part of this, is the fact the GOP are losing the popular vote and claiming voter fraud and the election being stolen. I know we're stuck with the Electoral College but eventually I would love to see it gone.

I held onto modest approval for it even after 16.

Screw that. Now I want it gone.

There is already a state by state “keep the majority from running over the minority” check and that’s the senate

[Blair]

There seems to be a worrying amount of confusion with Arizona; some saying that because it's EV that was returned the day before or on election day it could skewer Trump but equally some people are saying that it's fine because the most of it is maricopa county.

After I've stopped worrying about Michigan can somone reassure me Arizona isn't going to f*** us from behind?

[politics_king]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

I repeat. There is ZERO path to the senate. Absolutely zero. Anyone who wants me to put my money where my mouth is, let me know. I’ll give 4 to 1 odds

That's great, it's your opinion and it doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. So continue your best Grandpa from the Simpsons impression and shout at those clouds bud.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Any idea when we can expect a Georgia update?

[BudgieForce]

CNN just projected Biden the winner of Wisconsin.

[ObamaMichael]

Wisconsin has FINALLY been called by CNN

[MillennialModerate]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

I repeat. There is ZERO path to the senate. Absolutely zero. Anyone who wants me to put my money where my mouth is, let me know. I’ll give 4 to 1 odds

Why would you give 4 to 1 odds if you think there is zero chance? Put your money where your mouth is : 0 to 1 odds.

Well I’d like to win something off of other people attempting to get hopes up for no reason.

But fine. 0:1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Finally!
Green Bay Joe!

[Agonized-Statism]

Any idea when we can expect a Georgia update?

Dunno, apparently they can zoom through 95% of the votes late at night and then take their time with the other 5%. The Georgia way.

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin has been called for Joe Biden!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Huge sigh of relief in WI, though AZ is starting to worry me just a tad, but Biden still seems clearly favored

[DaleCooper]

There seems to be a worrying amount of confusion with Arizona; some saying that because it's EV that was returned the day before or on election day it could skewer Trump but equally some people are saying that it's fine because the most of it is maricopa county.

After I've stopped worrying about Michigan can somone reassure me Arizona isn't going to f*** us from behind?

For now, neither AP or Fox have walked back their calls.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324061986779504642?s=21
Lmao

We already know he's going to do this. I truly hope Biden wins the remaining states so the Electoral Map looks even better and Biden can hit at least 4 million more votes in the popular vote. Best part of this, is the fact the GOP are losing the popular vote and claiming voter fraud and the election being stolen. I know we're stuck with the Electoral College but eventually I would love to see it gone.

I held onto modest approval for it even after 16.

Screw that. Now I want it gone.

There is already a state by state “keep the majority from running over the minority” check and that’s the senate

Bingo! I totally agree with you on that. It's been my argument with others at work who lean GOP. It's like everyone gets 2 Senators, that's your check. The person with the most votes in the country should win the election and it would make candidates campaign everywhere. It would also get more people to vote I think since they know the vote will count. In California, we already know who's voting for President, so you can actually sit out if you like.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Can someone explain to me wtf happened in Minnesota? Looks like Biden trounced Trump yet the GOP held the state senate. Why are Americans like this

It's like people really fell for the "check" system or something. Especially with the House races.

Yes, there are a lot of people who still suffer from the delusion that the legislature can check the executive. But what divided government means in reality, at least as long as Mitch McConnell is around and partisan polarization is as strong as it is, to the point where the GOP is willing to sacrifice the country's well-being purely for partisan gain, is that simply nothing of any significance whatsoever can happen and the government will be unable to function.

I don't think that is really what people want - a dysfunctional government - but the problem is a lot of people are stupid (or more accurately and more charitably, uninformed and uninterested in politics).

This. Including the celebrities like Ice Cube, 50 Cents, etc.

The worst part about this is it will drive Biden, assuming he does win the Presidency as it seems he likely will, to rule via executive order.

Nobody should really like that, on a fundamental level it makes the Presidency more and more similar to an elected dictatorship. Increasing reliance on executive orders/unilateral executive governance has become a greater and greater part of the American system as partisan polarization has strengthened because it is the only way that the basic tasks of governance can be fulfilled when a divided government prevents those basic tasks from being accomplished via legislation. This is a bad trend that goes back decades and has only been getting stronger, and it will keep getting stronger unless and until we reform the electoral system.

[BudgieForce]

A Michigan call should be soon according to Biden's camp. Or atleast thats what they said earlier in the day.

[Rand]

Wisconsin has FINALLY been called by CNN

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Hassan 2022]

Would love it if NYT called WI and AZ.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/dougducey/status/1324054428886867969?s=19

[The Free North]

Here is whats left in AZ, take it fwiw

248,000 early ballots that arrived on Monday and Tuesday.
160,000 to 180,000 early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day.
29,000 provisional ballots, about 10,000 of which are from Election Day and the remainder from early voting.


https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

[cwh2018]

I would be really worried about Arizona if I were a dem, I think Trump may do it.  The election day vote is going Trump 2-1 and I think the outstanding votes are mail ballots dropped off on election day.

I don't enough about Pennsylvania, but it doesn't look good for Biden, it will be really close I think, don't think it will be anywhere near the 100,000 Casey predicted anyway. I think Trump may well be favoured in all the remaining races.

[Yeahsayyeah]

So far, in what states did Trump win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016 (Or lose by a smaller margin)? Is it just Florida?

As of now, according to the NYT numbers, so this will change

SD (+0,9)
AR (+1,1)
UT (+1,9)
IN (+2,1)
FL (+2,2)
MS (+8,1)


He would have bettered his margin in the following states he likely looses

NV (+2,2)
IL (+3,2)
NY (+4,8)

And there is still this 7,5 % margin improvement in Pennsylvania that will probably not hold, although he could still win it with a better margin than 2016.

Edit: And I totaly forgot about Alaska for a moment which would be +15% margin-wise at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

It is data based.

We know the following:

1) The EV returns got more Republican in Party Reg the closer we got to Election Day
2) The Election Day vote in AZ was 2-1 for Trump

So, it's safe to assume this vote will be more favorable to Trump than the earlier mail ballots. Just comes down to margins.

And how Indies voted. They made up a large chunk of it as well.