2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Jesus, hopefully the militia types stay home and not storm and disrupt vote counting:

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1324028130496040960

[RINO Tom]

I'm really excited to see the exit polls dissected.  I know they could be totally off, but they have such interesting stuff in them.  For example, as Biden seemingly gains among White college grads (going from Clinton barely losing them to Biden allegedly tying with them), Trump's gain among the $100,000+ crowd increased from four years ago?  Assuming for a second that is true, it would point to some serious generational divide explaining at least some of these trends.  (Obviously, when we look at specific places like Johnson County, KS or whatever, that doesn't hold up; these are national numbers.)

[limac333]

Illinois progressive tax amendment failed thankfully, and with Biden likely winning, I can’t imagine the 2022 electorate will be much more receptive to it.

Definitely shows there’s either significant mistrust of the state government or significant skepticism of big government policy among a portion of Illinois Dems. With a razor-thin margin in Champaign, it’s possible that it could lose in every county but Cook, and it got a laughable 62% in Cook, one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.

The messaging on the "No" campaign was quite good. I think voters from both parties in the state could agree that Illinois needs to manage its budget better, and I'm sure that was enough to peel off a significant chunk of Dems.

I hardly even saw a commercial for the “No” side until right before the election, but I was flooded with “Yes” commercials, and they seemed to try to put a bumper-sticker message on it (meaning way too simplistic to capture what was really being voted on), and voters clearly didn’t buy that.

I get Chicago TV, and I was seeing a lot of ads both ways. I agree the messaging on the No side was better. It's hard to get people to vote for what they think is a tax increase, even if it won't matter to their wallets.

[DrScholl]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

AP called it based off data that was not from Edison Research which apparently had an error over how much of the vote was reporting.

[gf20202]

Just got up, what's the consensus if Peters will make it in MI?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jesus, hopefully the militia types stay home and not storm and disrupt vote counting:

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1324028130496040960

The Art of PROJECTION.

[Alcibiades]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

AP called it based off data that was not from Edison Research which apparently had an error over how much of the vote was reporting.

So the AP call is reliable?

[Kuumo]

Joe Biden has now broken the 69.5 million raw vote record set by Barack Obama in 2008, becoming the most voted presidential candidate in history. Trump is also on track to break it, presumably becoming the second most voted candidate in history.

More Americans have preferred the Democratic candidate for the fourth election in a row, the longest streak since the New Deal.

With the way demographics are shifting, it really does look like we will be seeing more and more winning presidential candidates losing the popular vote. Whether that motivates either side to change now EVs are allocated - who knows, but I am not hopeful anything will change.

These reforms won't happen unless a Republican candidate wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college. So yes, highly unlikely.

[BudgieForce]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

AP called it based off data that was not from Edison Research which apparently had an error over how much of the vote was reporting.

So the AP call is reliable?

It should be, yes.

[Roblox]

I'm really excited to see the exit polls dissected.  I know they could be totally off, but they have such interesting stuff in them.  For example, as Biden seemingly gains among White college grads (going from Clinton barely losing them to Biden allegedly tying with them), Trump's gain among the $100,000+ crowd increased from four years ago?  Assuming for a second that is true, it would point to some serious generational divide explaining at least some of these trends.  (Obviously, when we look at specific places like Johnson County, KS or whatever, that doesn't hold up; these are national numbers.)

Honestly I wouldn’t rely on early exit polls for demographic estimates. The eventual election study should be very interesting though, and the varying swings are very unique to this election and fascinating.

[Badger]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

So...me saying Trump would win 275 electoral votes is somehow more off than the people saying he would only win 125?

I’m sorry....but that isn’t looking very likely.

The point here, which you are missing, is that you were off enough to deserve to eat your own plate of crow, let alone smugly acting like a know-it-all.

[Sir Mohamed]

The old turtle is not with Trump yet, even with the race 4 prez.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1324032431314395138

[Panda Express]

Trump barely won Oklahoma County, 49.2%-48.1%.


So close to breaking the GOP all-county sweep that they have done since 2004. I think by 2024 we can finally break it.

[forza nocta]

So far, in what states did Trump win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016 (Or lose by a smaller margin)? Is it just Florida?

[RINO Tom]

I'm really excited to see the exit polls dissected.  I know they could be totally off, but they have such interesting stuff in them.  For example, as Biden seemingly gains among White college grads (going from Clinton barely losing them to Biden allegedly tying with them), Trump's gain among the $100,000+ crowd increased from four years ago?  Assuming for a second that is true, it would point to some serious generational divide explaining at least some of these trends.  (Obviously, when we look at specific places like Johnson County, KS or whatever, that doesn't hold up; these are national numbers.)

Honestly I wouldn’t rely on early exit polls for demographic estimates. The eventual election study should be very interesting though, and the varying swings are very unique to this election and fascinating.

Another interesting if expected thing is that a pretty decent number of Trump 2016 voters (likely OBAMA-TRUMP VOTERZ lol) did in fact go for Joe Biden, along with Biden winning massive majorities among former third party voters and those that didn't vote in 2016.

[emailking]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

When they call it, it's >99.5% a candidate will win, but the race ending up close is included in those last few %. Basically he's mostly likely won Arizona based on those calls, but yeah it's a bit nerve-wracking.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I predicted the 269/269 scenario, and we're at 270/268 if it breaks the way things sit. 

I'm trying to calm down the autistic Trump supporters right now that don't understand, yes in Wisconsin you can have 100%+ turnout because of new registered voter en masse day of the election.

Sigh. 2020 brings us another cluster****.

[RINO Tom]

Just got up, what's the consensus if Peters will make it in MI?

I like Peters, but this would disappoint me.  For one, it would be an interesting upset, and secondly ... let's be real, it would benefit the GOP a LOT to stumble into more minority Senators.  Whether you're "racist" or not, you get your rhetorical act together if minorities are standing by your side.

[Kuumo]

Trump barely won Oklahoma County, 49.2%-48.1%.


So close to breaking the GOP all-county sweep that they have done since 2004. I think by 2024 we can finally break it.

If the Democratic nominee manages to win in 2024, Democrats could break the all-county sweeps in both Oklahoma and West Virginia. Monongalia County was within 2 points.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

So far, in what states did Trump win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016 (Or lose by a smaller margin)? Is it just Florida?

So far he’s doing relatively well in Illinois, getting 42% of the vote there.

[SunSt0rm]

So far, in what states did Trump win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016 (Or lose by a smaller margin)? Is it just Florida?

Also Indiana I remember, but count hasn't finished yet

[RINO Tom]

Trump barely won Oklahoma County, 49.2%-48.1%.


So close to breaking the GOP all-county sweep that they have done since 2004. I think by 2024 we can finally break it.

If the Democratic nominee manages to win in 2024, Democrats could break the all-county sweeps in both Oklahoma and West Virginia. Monongalia County was within 2 points.

Has anyone ever compiled out (major) college town counties vote?  Obviously, the vast majority would go for Democrats, but it would be interesting to see the ones that don't.  (Depending on your definition of "major," I know Bloomington, IL's McLean County was usually one.)

[n1240]

GA very slowly adding some mail-in vote

DeKalb (around 52k left)

Biden 1812
Trump 256

Houston (around 19k left)

Biden 709
Trump 482

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/thememegifs/status/1324028851626934273

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324033983882166272?s=19