IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It's a cause for concern, but probably not a cause for a thread this large.

And yes, I appreciate the irony that this post makes the thread bigger.

[SnowLabrador]

It's pretty hilarious the thread got this big.

[Blair]

Surely this just shows how boring the race has been?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's a cause for concern, but probably not a cause for a thread this large.

And yes, I appreciate the irony that this post makes the thread bigger.

I know this isn't time for memes (I gotta get 'em out before getting down to business on election night), but...this was just too fitting. 

[Splash]

LOL - This thread is even more hilarious in the cold light of day.

Random side note:

I might be in the minority here, but participating in this thread last night was a bit cathartic for me if I am going to be honest.

I don't subscribe to doomerism, but I don't think I am the only one who has to admit to an incredible amount of built up anxiety when it comes to this election. We understand what's at stake and despite all the models, polls, and precedents, nobody can be 100% certain of the outcome - even the most level-headed of us.

For me, this poll served as sort of a metaphorical release valve for all that built up anxiety. I know, it's sounds counter-intuitive, but I actually feel better after indulging a bit in the dooming and glooming last night. Glad I got that out of my system. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming

[ExSky]

Good lord this thread is going to be an absolute blast to quote Election Day and after.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1322916712468172800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322916712468172800%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322916712468172800

Smth seems off here.....

[Gustaf]

20 pages, come on guys we can do it

[jamestroll]

20 pages, come on guys we can do it

We can not keep chasing the past.

Yes #elasticity does exist and some states are more swingy than others but such a rural Midwestern state was never going to easy for Biden to win.

But this poll does seem to be a little flawed. I could easily see Biden barely losing it and Greenfield barely winning it if Biden is indeed winning nationally by over eight points.

[EJ24]

My God, this has just ruined the reasoning of any Democrat.

I guess they must have shown this poll on CNN because my grandfather is now convinced Trump is winning the election. He claims Jake Tapper just said Trump is gonna win because of this poll.

I can't take anymore of this until Tuesday. The dooming is just too much.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Since this poll has caused mass hysteria, I'll do my best to defuse it.

Throw it into the average, people. Iowa was going to be a tough lift for Biden either way. While I don't think Trump wins it again by this much, I can see him favored there.

[Sirius_]

Why is this 19 pages?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is this 19 pages?

Because THIS IS ATLAS!

[tmthforu94]

Good poll for Trump, suggests Tuesday night wont be a complete massacre.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Good poll for Trump, suggests Tuesday night wont be a complete massacre.

Um, this poll is an outlier and the crosstabs are trash.

[Horsemask]

19 pages ayy lmao

[S019]

Why is this 19 pages?

Because people (foolishly) actually expected Biden to win IA, its time for us to admit that this state is the Republican version of Nevada.

[jamestroll]

Why is this 19 pages?

Because people (foolishly) actually expected Biden to win IA, its time for us to admit that this state is the Republican version of Nevada.

Not really. The GOP could actually win Nevada if they were winning the popular. Biden needs to win nationally  by 10 points to win Iowa.

In fact the next GOP presidential winner may have to win both NV and NM to win.

[S019]

Good poll for Trump, suggests Tuesday night wont be a complete massacre.

Um, this poll is an outlier and the crosstabs are trash.

It isn't even that, it's just that IA could still drift hard right, but that doesn't mean the rest of the Midwest and surely the Sunbelt would do the same. Maybe for all we know, Trump is collapsing almost everywhere and the only reason he isn't losing by 15+ is because he's keeping it relatively steady compared to 2016 in IA and OH.

[S019]

Why is this 19 pages?

Because people (foolishly) actually expected Biden to win IA, its time for us to admit that this state is the Republican version of Nevada.

Not really. The GOP could actually win Nevada if they were winning the popular. Biden needs to win nationally  by 10 points to win Iowa.

In fact the next GOP presidential winner may have to win both NV and NM to win.

NV and NM would not fall before AZ and TX, you need to make inroads among Hispanics to win any of the four, and the whites in AZ and TX are much easier than the ones in NM.

[jamestroll]

I am not predicting it but Missouri could end up being closer than Iowa. If the Midwestern suburban Biden surge is real.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

20 pages incoming

Here's a cute video compilation of babies playing with dogs to assuage the doomers:

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1322916712468172800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322916712468172800%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322916712468172800

Smth seems off here.....

Yeah... I’m starting to wonder if there was some kind of organized manipulation of this poll by Trump supporters somehow.

[VAR]

Um, the last Selzer poll showed Feenstra leading by only 5, but no one called it an outlier because muh crosstabs.

(I’m not saying that I don’t think this poll is an outlier)

[Alben Barkley]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.