IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- if nobody is gonna say anything intelligent, even after I posted the Sioux City numbers, I'm gonna leave this s**t-storm* meltdown thread and go focus on something more interesting...

The lack of comprehensive discussion involving Iowa on this thread is pitiful in the extreme, especially regarding how and where the votes are actually at in Iowa.

*Show me the Numbers*, "Put up or shut up", this whole thread is virtually lacking in any type of real analysis or discussion, so I will shift my attention elsewhere until we actually get a post which presents real data vs "Op-ED" pieces from various avatars...

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1322688467894104065

Weighting by CD but not education? The f**k?

trump lead maybe larger or smaller, or selzer is no longer a gold standard

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

So that makes it ok to steal an election? Look at what is happening in Texas and what has been happening with the post office. And you endorsed it in the early voting thread. Do you have an excuse for that or are you just a russian troll here to stir up things?

No, of course it's not ok. Do you think I support any of that?
Their efforts to throw out 100k votes will be unsuccessful. I don't even know why they are trying.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it true that Selzer changed methodology since their last poll? That seems kind of ...important.

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1322692201118277632

[Suburbia]

The other thing this suggests to me is that if Dems do nonetheless win a trifecta in 2020, after taking care of the immediate/necessary COVID relief legislation etc, when they eventually start on policy legislation the first order of business should probably be immigration reform. Winning the sunbelt in the future is going to be very important for Dems in future elections, and so it is time to try and lock in more Hispanic support, and get more people on the pathway to citizenship and eventually voting in those sunbelt states (most importantly, Texas).

First order of business after COVID/stimulus is healthcare and police reform

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1322688467894104065

Weighting by CD but not education? The f**k?

That explains why Fink is down 15...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is it true that Selzer changed methodology since their last poll? That seems kind of ...important.

They do have a new option for respondents to pick - "prefer not to answer" - that has gotten 5% in the presidential race and 4% in the Senate race.

As with Marist, weighting by education is not the be-all-and-end-all.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.

Stop it. Hillary won the youth vote in Iowa in 2016. There is no way that Trump is winning it this year against Biden.

Wait what? What is the source for that? Exit polls had Trump winning, and an article on the youth vote helping Democrats even cites Iowa as a counterexample to this fact.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

[KaiserDave]

This thread is Exhibit A why I'm not going to be looking at Atlas on E-Day

[BudgieForce]

Is it true that Selzer changed methodology since their last poll? That seems kind of ...important.

They do have a new option for respondents to pick - "prefer not to answer" - that has gotten 5% in the presidential race and 4% in the Senate race.

As with Marist, weighting by education is not the be-all-and-end-all.

Granted, Marist and Selzer both had misses in 2018.

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/520871-aei-bidens-proposals-would-cut-taxes-for-most-households-in-2021'

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/09/25/biden-democratic-sweep-would-be-best-outcome-for-the-economy-moodys-says/?sh=c12774142838

[Devils30]

Iowa was 0.4% more Republican than Texas in 2016. Why should anyone be shocked if it's 3-4% more red in 2020??

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

[Stockdale for Veep]

Doomer Utopia!

Dems now need a 600000000K lead to win a single House seat in Iowa.

[ON Progressive]

This thread demonstrates exactly why calling pollsters "gold standard" is malarkey.

When you put a pollster on a pedestal like this, people will put way too much stock into a single poll. Even people who should know better, such as the kinds of people who are enough into politics to be on a forum of less than 500 people solely about politics.

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/520871-aei-bidens-proposals-would-cut-taxes-for-most-households-in-2021'

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/09/25/biden-democratic-sweep-would-be-best-outcome-for-the-economy-moodys-says/?sh=c12774142838

Yeah, he's full of sh**t about Biden's tax proposals. I got a newsflash, most people don't make more than 400k!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

[lfromnj]

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

There is little need to draw it to Chicago Land, just strip the rurals and add Mcclean county. There isn't even enough room in Chicago land.

[RBH]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

how often do we get leaked internals from a top Presidential campaign anyways?

that being said, prepare for a PPP poll to squirt out or something

[Landslide Lyndon]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

how often do we get leaked internals from a top Presidential campaign anyways?

that being said, prepare for a PPP poll to squirt out or something

There was a "leaked" internal a month ago that showed Biden 3 points behind. Obviously they still think it's competitive otherwise they wouldn't waste his time sending him there a couple of days before the election.

[Alben Barkley]

GAME OVER LIBS!

Biden doesn't need Iowa.

No, but this is a sign that there's likely once again a systemic polling error in the midwest. Biden is gonna really have to hope he locks down AZ, FL and NC.

How can a poll be a sign there’s a systemic polling error? Who’s to say this poll isn’t the one off this time?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1322704822383104001

[TheLaRocca]

This forum thought for months that Biden was winning Michigan by 15%.

Lmfao.

Ayo this man thinks Trump has a chance in Michigan

He does lol.

I don't think he wins the state but it's going to be close.

I've said Biden +3-4 for months in that state. Only thing saving Biden is the suburbs.