IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Iowa-01 R+15?! It was only Trump 49% - Clinton 45% in 2016.

[DrScholl]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

Again, you are still missing the point that Trump is still trailing in several states that he needs to win the electoral college. Even if he does carry Iowa again he can't become President again in he's losing Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The math is impossible.

[Splash]

Just putting this out there....

Selzer doesnt weigh by education.

Which means Trump is probably up even more. Christ.


*I don't actually believe that but since it appears no rational argument can derail the doom-posting in this thread, I figure I'll join in on the fun!

[redjohn]

OOoooooooooh sh**t. We have a race on our hands!

[libertpaulian]

Rod Blum didn't even win IA-01 by 15% in 2016, and he had the benefit of Trump's mega-coattails that year.

This poll is trash.

[DrScholl]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

[Umengus]

2016

[dspNY]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Iowa-01 R+15?! It was only Trump 49% - Clinton 45% in 2016.

That's the outlier part of the poll. Selzer got an extremely trump-heavy part from the 1st district. Recalibrate that to what the 1st district actually is (around even, you can go a point or two either way D or R) and you get a result for the state that makes sense

[new_patomic]

They've never weighed by education, I believe.

And wouldn't that being a problem mean Trump is up by even more.

[lfromnj]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

I JUST WARNED EVERYONE its a sample size of 200 for the district polls and it should be discounted, I even recall having this exact conversation a few months . There is obviously no way Iowa 2nd is 14 points to the left of the first but thats merely MOE and the district polls are merely crosstabs and should be seen as such, I have no idea why Selzer even reports them without at least doubling their total poll size. Even if the 1st is way too R friendly, for Trump +7 the 4th is way too D friendly. The 2nd seems about right and I am not sure about the 3rd which is the only Iowa district that has a major city so it could trend differently.

However Iowa 2nd and the 1st had the same Obama and Trump numbers although the 2nd has more red rurals while the 1st has less blue D counties.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

It even voted for Hubbell for Governor in 2018. R+15 is definitely surprising if not preposterous.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1322691488476790784

[gf20202]

It's worth noting that in the Biden internals released on a grassroots call 12 days ago that Iowa was their worst polling swing state with them losing by 3.2, even worse than Ohio which they said they were losing by 1.8.

Trump's lead is probably not seven, but sure feels like Iowa is coming home for republicans.

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

[Ferguson97]

Missouri is not voting to the right of Iowa lmfao

It absolutely is. Did you meant to say "left"?

[Hammy]

R 51-44 if undecideds break similarly, as third party will be less.

Not sure why everyone's freaking out over a state Biden wasn't likely to win in the first place with high undecideds present.

[It’s so Joever]

So is this how Atlas will react when Trump wins re-election?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1322689964249882624

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

How "doesn't" Cedar Rapids count? It's the second largest city in the state.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Lmfao, ok yea Selzer's reign is done.

I dont doubt Trump wins Iowa but the margin here aint happening.

[pikachu]

lol we’re only a couple more posts from becoming the most commented post on this board.

[Tekken_Guy]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

[RBH]

so either Trump wins by a lot, or Ann Selzer becomes Selzalgar

[swf541]

Missouri is not voting to the right of Iowa lmfao

It absolutely is. Did you meant to say "left"?

Yes that is what I meant

[lfromnj]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls from Selzer. Iowa 2nd and Iowa 1st should basically have the same margin.