2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[SaneDemocrat]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

I’m a Bernie guy but thank god we aren’t relying on them in a general.They just don’t care mostly.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322323822213619712?s=19

Now back to your regularly scheduled "We don't need to placate young voters but we'll certainly blame them if Trump wins" election rant

[Holmes]

So what we’re not going to do is complain about and blame young people for an election result that hasn’t happened yet.

[It’s so Joever]

Eh I’m normally a doomer, but young people seem to be turning out more than usual.
Keep in mind our rates are usually abysmal, so I’m not sure it’s that bad.

[philly09]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

[SaneDemocrat]

Early vote jumped today in Hidalgo Co (McAllen), as @KamalaHarris @BetoORourke @JulianCastro rallied supporters

County finishes w 187,893 early + mail votes. 

There were 173,437 total votes there in 2016

E Day to come.

Tweet from Jonathan Martin

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1322385754677514241

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Early vote jumped today in Hidalgo Co (McAllen), as @KamalaHarris @BetoORourke @JulianCastro rallied supporters

County finishes w 187,893 early + mail votes. 

There were 173,437 total votes there in 2016

E Day to come.

Tweet from Jonathan Martin

Poor MJ Hegar not even getting a mention

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1322385754677514241

Hard to see this failing to happen.

[Horus]

Early vote jumped today in Hidalgo Co (McAllen), as @KamalaHarris @BetoORourke @JulianCastro rallied supporters

County finishes w 187,893 early + mail votes. 

There were 173,437 total votes there in 2016

E Day to come.

Tweet from Jonathan Martin

Poor MJ Hegar not even getting a mention

If Dems had gone with Royce West and ignored the #Resistance moms...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1322385754677514241

is 600k just the default goal everywhere this year?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322382525860368385

[Not Me, Us]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

I fall into this category.

[philly09]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

I fall into this category.

Ditto, though I'm 32.

[Hammy]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

[philly09]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

We're at 37.3 %

[YE]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

Hopefully Democrats have a good in-person day tomorrow to get up to the extrapolated 86k mentioned on his blog. Am I right in saying the Saturday before is usually their best turnout?

Yes though there’s still mail in voting through Teusday to add to the firewall.

[forsythvoter]

I think Rs in PA (and NC) overreached in trying to get the late arriving ballots canceled. It's basically caused mass paranoia among all the Ds to return their ballots sooner or via drop box, meaning that the remaining absentees might actually tilt Republican by election night.

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

[Hammy]

I think Rs in PA (and NC) overreached in trying to get the late arriving ballots canceled. It's basically caused mass paranoia among all the Ds to return their ballots sooner or via drop box, meaning that the remaining absentees might actually tilt Republican by election night.

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

There does seem like there's a 13% return rate--I just checked the stats and it's 79% for Dems and
66% for GOP.

Also are they reporting their early vote late? Their turnout vs 2016 is poor compared to the other states which are about 20% higher.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/30/20 AM UPDATE (Day 11 of Full Reports)




Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 1,806,172 (90.2% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +5.5% Daily Jump
                                                                 (61.2%) of 2020 TOTAL RV)       +3.8% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7696894#msg7696894

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7700901#msg7700901

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7704899#msg7704899

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

10/30/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



10/30/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



10/30/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration 10/30/20 AM:



Daily votes batch from 10/29/20 AM to 10/30/AM reporting:



Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:



I will avoid commenting on these numbers in detail Tonight but a few brief parting comments:

1.) PUBs beat the DEMs for the second day in total raw votes with a new +987 Pub Daily Raw Margin, which barely scratches the record +280k D CUM Lead from 10/28/20.

2.) MISC (NAV /3rd Party Voters) continue the lead over both REG DEM & PUBs for the 2nd Daily Ballot Count in a row, with record 35.5% of the Daily Vote Share.

3.) These trends will likely continue, assuming a high TO election in OR where the Monday before the Election and Election Day usually have some of the highest Total Votes Cast. These reports are kinda funky in that they usually post on the AM, so we'll actually possibly see the highest day of Ballots reported the Day after the Election (Lagging update structure).

4.) Although naturally OR is not competitive in either the PRES or US-SEN elections, there are other down-ballot races of interest and DEMs performed extremely well in the '18 Midterms in State House and State Senate Elections, so I would not be surprised to see additional pickups in 2020.

5.) In particular, not only to I believe that DeFazio will win CD-04 by decent margins, I am interested in how poorly the PUB will perform in CD-02, considering numbers from Deschutes and Jackson Counties reported thus far.

6.) Currently there are slightly more TOT DEM ballots outstanding than TOT PUB ballots outstanding, and again Misc (Non-Affiliated-Voters) could present some interesting results in the 1st PRES election where AVR through the VBM is in full effect, with roughly 270k new NAVs / 3rd Party added to the voter rolls since Nov '16.

[Non Swing Voter]

Someone posted an article about how the numbers listed for PA are incomplete.  Some counties have higher turnout than what's being reported.

[Gass3268]

Democrats almost win in person voting today in Clark!

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322402317304356869?s=21

[Adam Griffin]

What's worrisome: there are still approximately 580,000 unreturned mail ballots in Georgia. At this point, perhaps 200-225k get returned by Friday, 11/6. The state hasn't been logging more than 45-55k per day consistently during early in-person voting.

Even more so, here's the breakdown of those who have not returned their ballots:

White: 46.17%
Black: 33.37%
Asian: 4.22%
Latino: 3.53%
Other: 12.71%

Compared to those returned and accepted:

White: 53.98%
Black: 30.33%
Asian: 3.54%
Latino: 2.42%
Other: 9.73%

[NOVA Green]

What's worrisome: there are still approximately 580,000 unreturned mail ballots in Georgia. At this point, perhaps 200-225k get returned by Friday, 11/6. The state hasn't been logging more than 45-55k per day consistently during early in-person voting.

Even more so, here's the breakdown of those who have not returned their ballots:

White: 46.17%
Black: 33.37%
Asian: 4.22%
Latino: 3.53%
Other: 12.71%

Compared to those returned and accepted:

White: 53.98%
Black: 30.33%
Asian: 3.54%
Latino: 2.42%
Other: 9.73%

How much of that is because Brothers & Sisters don't trust the USPS this close to the election and would rather vote in person versus absentee?

Who does Team Biden have running the "Ground War" in Georgia?

I haven't really followed all of his hiring decisions for running the campaign in key States, but pretty sure he's hired talent in GA, just like in pretty much every other of the large number of 2020 "Swing States".

Former President Adam Griffin (Sorry but I wanted to reference your previous Atlas title as a term of respect, plus your expertise on GA Elections), but suspect you got a good handle on all this (Although actually we got a pretty solid DEM and IND crew from GA who also provide high quality and solid perspective, analysis, and updates, so not to disrespect any of the others, but you are one of my first "Go-To GA experts)

[Non Swing Voter]

So 90% of early voting in Nevada occurred in Clark and Washoe.  Is that normally the case?  I wouldn't think that's good for the GOP considering they'll probably lose both counties.