2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sorry for the delay! I slept in and then was away from the computer. Here ya go, minus my OCD formatting.

Day 17 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 29) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY              1,344,915    54.2%  2016: 102.5%   2018: 111.4%
FORT BEND COUNTY           307,292    63.7%    2016: 117.3%   2018: 120.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      222,602    60.2%   2016:  108.8%   2018: 117.1%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                741,007     53.0%    2016:  97.6%  2018:  101.8%
TARRANT COUNTY             680,382     56.1%  2016: 101.8%  2018:  108.4%
COLLIN COUNTY                423,855     65.3%   2016: 117.3%    2018: 119.1%
DENTON COUNTY               35,8439     63.4%   2016: 120.0%   2018:  121.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   637,128    53.6%   2016: 108.1%   2018: 115.9%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                 521,002     60.9%   2016: 109.1%  2018: 107.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY       258,055     68.5%   2016: 127.1%  2018: 123.9%
HAYS COUNTY                      86,637     56.7%   2016: 120.1%  2018: 108.6%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                203,874    41.7%  2016:   95.3%    2018:   100.1%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              173,384    44.3%   2016: 100.0%    2018: 114.3%
NUECES COUNTY                 103,682    49.0%   2016:  99.3%    2018: 110.2%
CAMERON COUNTY              88,873     40.6%   2016:  96.5%    2018: 114.1%

(Hidalgo County actually finished at 99.97%. But screw it, I'm counting it anyway)

(Also, the Texas Elections site didn't report Galveston in-person numbers for whatever reason. Did they just not open the polls yesterday?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

how is black turnout the highest when they are at only 27% of the electorate in GA & NC at 19% which is below the 2016 turnout rates? just curious

White turnout is also below the 2016 turnout rates, but in both states there's ~10% of people who are "other/unknown", which seems a bit high to me.

Someone in this thread said that GA voters that automatically are signed up at the DMV go into the "other" category, since the DMV registrations don't track by race. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.

[Adam Griffin]

how is black turnout the highest when they are at only 27% of the electorate in GA & NC at 19% which is below the 2016 turnout rates? just curious

White turnout is also below the 2016 turnout rates, but in both states there's ~10% of people who are "other/unknown", which seems a bit high to me.

Someone in this thread said that GA voters that automatically are signed up at the DMV go into the "other" category, since the DMV registrations don't track by race. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.

Not all (or even a majority: the DMV has processed 5m registrations/updates since AVR began in 2017), but starting circa 2014-15, a very sizable share of newly-registered GA voters started being processed without race by SoS. No idea why but this predates AVR. Prior to several years ago, you'd have maybe 5% of voters classified as "other": now it's 10% or more.

The quick, easy and rough math on the "other" category in GA is 30% Latino/Asian, 30% black, 40% white.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sorry for the delay! I slept in and then was away from the computer. Here ya go, minus my OCD formatting.

Day 17 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 29) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY              1,344,915    54.2%     2016: 102.5%   2018: 111.4%
FORT BEND COUNTY          307,292    63.7%     2016: 117.3%    2018: 120.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY    222,602    60.2%    2016:  108.8%   2018: 117.1%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                 741007    53.0%     2016:  97.6%    2018:  101.8%
TARRANT COUNTY              680382    56.1%     2016: 101.8%  2018:  108.4%
COLLIN COUNTY                 423855    65.3%    2016: 117.3%    2018: 119.1%
DENTON COUNTY                358439    63.4%    2016: 120.0%    2018: 121.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   637128    53.6%   2016: 108.1%  2018: 115.9%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  521002   60.9%  2016: 109.1%  2018:  107.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        258055   68.5%   2016: 127.1%   2018:   123.9%
HAYS COUNTY                       86,637   56.7%   2016: 120.1%    2018:  108.6%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                203874    41.7%  2016:   95.3%    2018:   100.1%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              173384    44.3%   2016: 100.0%    2018: 114.3%
NUECES COUNTY                 103682    49.0%   2016:  99.3%    2018: 110.2%
CAMERON COUNTY              88873     40.6%   2016:  96.5%    2018: 114.1%

(Hidalgo County actually finished at 99.97%. But screw it, I'm counting it anyway)

(Also, the Texas Elections site didn't report Galveston in-person numbers for whatever reason. Did they just not open the polls yesterday?

Can you do Bell County?

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Can you do Bell County?

I'll try and do it later tonight. I'll be MIA from the computer again

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

Primaries don't indicate election turnout. Especially since the primary in MI was far less competitive by the time it got to Michigan this year.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Sinema won while Republicans had a near double digit lead. Also, there are a good number of VBM days still left. Finally, AZ is likely the epicenter for registered Republican defections.

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

yes of course, do you think he is bleeding the same amount of mcsally in 2018 or getting at least 90% of reps?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

Primaries don't indicate election turnout.

Definately very true, but in general Detroit is the main urban center/Democratic stronghold, and is loosing population pretty fast

[xavier110]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Sinema won while Republicans had a near double digit lead. Also, there are a good number of VBM days still left. Finally, AZ is likely the epicenter for registered Republican defections.

All of this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

yes of course, do you think he is bleeding the same amount of mcsally in 2018 or getting at least 90% of reps?

Among early voters he's probably doing at least that poorly with Republicans, but he'll do considerably better than that among Election Day voters. (which makes sense -- those Republicans most inclined to vote for Biden are also the most likely to heed advice to vote early, while those most loyal to Trump are most likely to reject voting by mail).

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

yes of course, do you think he is bleeding the same amount of mcsally in 2018 or getting at least 90% of reps?

Among early voters he's probably doing at least that poorly with Republicans, but he'll do considerably better than that among Election Day voters. (which makes sense -- those Republicans most inclined to vote for Biden are also the most likely to heed advice to vote early, while those most loyal to Trump are most likely to reject voting by mail).

exactly im nervous to see what happens

[Bootes Void]

[Gass3268]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

[Devout Centrist]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

[Malarkey Decider]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

Wbrocks67 was actually right this time, this guy does seem to maybe want to feel more important than he actually is right now.

I do trust his final prediction, but I don't think NV is really too important this year, and I think he wants it to be.

[soundchaser]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

Hopefully Democrats have a good in-person day tomorrow to get up to the extrapolated 86k mentioned on his blog. Am I right in saying the Saturday before is usually their best turnout?

[Crumpets]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

                               Ralston^                             ^Atlas

[forsythvoter]

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

Wbrocks67 was actually right this time, this guy does seem to maybe want to feel more important than he actually is right now.

I do trust his final prediction, but I don't think NV is really too important this year, and I think he wants it to be.

Vegas is really close to Arizona.  He should just branch out and do that.

[republican1993]

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?