2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

                               Ralston^                             ^Atlas

Jon Ralston is a pussy

[NYSforKennedy2024]

/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

[forsythvoter]

I think the Sinema race is a good benchmark. She won Maricopa by 3% (and the whole state by 2%) even though registration was +6R. I would guess the Republican registration gap would probably need to be around +8 or so in Maricopa for Trump to win.

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?

[Crumpets]

/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

Losing it in which direction?

[soundchaser]

/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

As they should — a million vote lead by registration seems...big.

[republican1993]

I think the Sinema race is a good benchmark. She won Maricopa by 3% (and the whole state by 2%) even though registration was +6R. I would guess the Republican registration gap would probably need to be around +8 or so in Maricopa for Trump to win.

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?

this is great thank you, where are we at % as of today statewide? I know dems were ahead statewide.

[gf20202]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/elaijuh/status/1322322271881617414?s=21

[Storr]

/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

As they should — a million vote lead by registration seems...big.

Scranton Joe

(I'm bad at coming up with original memes, but that's a good one so I'm going with it. )

[GP270watch]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

 Ralston is a good reporter, he's not a homer for anybody and he tries to account for surprises. Everything he has reported has been accurate and shows Democrats in the driver's seat. Atlas is too critical of anybody who's not a Democratic Party cheerleader, which is myopic.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

 Ralston is a good reporter, he's not a homer for anybody and he tries to account for surprises. Everything he has reported has been accurate and shows Democrats in the driver's seat. Atlas is too critical of anybody who's not a Democratic Party cheerleader, which is myopic.

Ralston is literally the best there is when it comes to dealing with the early vote, and people shouldn't fault him too much for what has been some frustrating noise in the day-to-day data. Particularly important for a state that is notoriously hard to poll.

[Storr]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

 Ralston is a good reporter, he's not a homer for anybody and he tries to account for surprises. Everything he has reported has been accurate and shows Democrats in the driver's seat. Atlas is too critical of anybody who's not a Democratic Party cheerleader, which is myopic.

Ralston is literally the best there is when it comes to dealing with the early vote, and people shouldn't fault him too much for what has been some frustrating noise in the day-to-day data. Particularly important for a state that is notoriously hard to poll.

Exactly, he only got ME-2 and Iowa wrong in 2016. He didn't do that by being a blogger trying to whip up as much page views as possible.

Edit: Plus he just had a new post!

He added a new column to his hypothetical models:

"I added a sixth column, which I call the Trump Fantasy Scenario, which shows what would happen if Biden gets 90 percent of Dems, Trump gets 95 percent of Rs, both get 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45."

Result? Biden still up by 7,040.

He sums it up with:" So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire."

[prag_prog]

Number of ballots requested in PA-
Dems: 1,945K
Reps: 787K

Number of unreturned ballots-
Dems: 410K
Reps: 270K

The unreturned ballots gap is narrowing even though number of ballots Dems requested is significantly higher than Reps

[ON Progressive]

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/a4511cd6-18aa-4102-bb22-ee81b6db10a5/Statewide_Report_Day_17.pdf

Derek Ryan's penultimate report for TX EV turnout. Parenthesis are changes from Day 16's report.

Last Voted in R Primary - 29.3% (-0.6)
Last Voted in D Primary - 24.8% (-0.6)
GE/No Primary History - 29.4% (+0.5)
First Time Voter - 16.6% (+0.6)

R Primary voters with no D history are now below their 2016 share of the electorate. First time voters now equal 2016. Both GE/No primary and first time voters should climb up in the final report tomorrow because of just how tapped out the primary electorate of both parties are (even the 1R and 1Ds are >70% turnout!).

Also, voters under 30 are now a bigger slice of the electorate than they were two years ago.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322332457241399296

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322332457241399296

Jimmy Stewart halfway through the movie, or Jimmy Stewart at the end? There’s an important difference!

[Storr]

According to the Travis County's live early voting location wait times map, there are 6 voting locations with 21-51 minute waits, and 5 with >51 minute waits. It seems a lot of folks are rushing to early vote at the last minute.
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/current-election.html

[Inmate Trump]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

 Ralston is a good reporter, he's not a homer for anybody and he tries to account for surprises. Everything he has reported has been accurate and shows Democrats in the driver's seat. Atlas is too critical of anybody who's not a Democratic Party cheerleader, which is myopic.

Ralston is literally the best there is when it comes to dealing with the early vote, and people shouldn't fault him too much for what has been some frustrating noise in the day-to-day data. Particularly important for a state that is notoriously hard to poll.

Exactly, he only got ME-2 and Iowa wrong in 2016. He didn't do that by being a blogger trying to whip up as much page views as possible.

Edit: Plus he just had a new post!

He added a new column to his hypothetical models:

"I added a sixth column, which I call the Trump Fantasy Scenario, which shows what would happen if Biden gets 90 percent of Dems, Trump gets 95 percent of Rs, both get 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45."

Result? Biden still up by 7,040.

He sums it up with:" So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire."

That’s just concerning NV correct? Or the election as a whole?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston runs an independent blog. Is it all that surprising he wouldn't want to declare it over and hurt himself traffic-wise? It doesn't make him a coward or a pussy. It's also an entirely different kind of year so hedging is probably smart until his typical weekend prediction. Can we stop with this garbage?

 Ralston is a good reporter, he's not a homer for anybody and he tries to account for surprises. Everything he has reported has been accurate and shows Democrats in the driver's seat. Atlas is too critical of anybody who's not a Democratic Party cheerleader, which is myopic.

Ralston is literally the best there is when it comes to dealing with the early vote, and people shouldn't fault him too much for what has been some frustrating noise in the day-to-day data. Particularly important for a state that is notoriously hard to poll.

Exactly, he only got ME-2 and Iowa wrong in 2016. He didn't do that by being a blogger trying to whip up as much page views as possible.

Edit: Plus he just had a new post!

He added a new column to his hypothetical models:

"I added a sixth column, which I call the Trump Fantasy Scenario, which shows what would happen if Biden gets 90 percent of Dems, Trump gets 95 percent of Rs, both get 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45."

Result? Biden still up by 7,040.

He sums it up with:" So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire."

That’s just concerning NV correct? Or the election as a whole?

Just Nevada.

[Kirby Reed]

Travis County just hit 550,000 with 1.5 more hours of early voting left. Looking forward to updates from other counties but I’m particularly proud of my new home. Shattering turnout expectations and breaking records with each new vote cast.

[charcuterie]

According to the Travis County's live early voting location wait times map, there are 6 voting locations with 21-51 minute waits, and 5 with >51 minute waits. It seems a lot of folks are rushing to early vote at the last minute.
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/current-election.html

Are they turned away when the locations are supposed to close? Or is it like the actual election day, where they are entitled to vote so long as they're in line by closing time?

[philly09]

Yeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaw!

https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk/status/1322335507959959555

[Non Swing Voter]

Travis County just hit 550,000 with 1.5 more hours of early voting left. Looking forward to updates from other counties but I’m particularly proud of my new home. Shattering turnout expectations and breaking records with each new vote cast.

wow, it was 468,000 in 2016!

If you apply the margins from the last election that should net Biden at least an additional 40k votes.

[soundchaser]

Dread it, run from it — Blue Texas arrives all the same

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the Travis County's live early voting location wait times map, there are 6 voting locations with 21-51 minute waits, and 5 with >51 minute waits. It seems a lot of folks are rushing to early vote at the last minute.
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/current-election.html

Are they turned away when the locations are supposed to close? Or is it like the actual election day, where they are entitled to vote so long as they're in line by closing time?

From https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/when.html#early-voting: "All other voting rules and procedures apply – e.g., eligibility and polling hours."  I would assume this means those in line at closing time will still be allowed to vote.