2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[NOVA Green]

Returned ballots in GOP Favored CDs:

CD01:
73.3k D (57% return rate)
41.9k I/O (35% return rate)
80.0k R (43% return rate)

CD04:
93.4k D (60% return rate)
54.5k I/O (39% return rate)
93.5k R (43% return rate)

CD08:
42.7k D (34% return rate)
23.7k I/O (21% return rate)
35.3k R (25% return rate)

CD22:
60.5k D (44% return rate)
30.8k I/O (28% return rate)
60.5k R (37% return rate)

CD23:
50.0k D (41% return rate)
30.5k I/O (27% return rate)
55.5k R (33% return rate)

CD42:
55.7k D (38% return rate)
30.3k I/O (24% return rate)
48.5k R (28% return rate)

CD50:
65.1k D (49% return rate)
42.2k I/O (32% return rate)
64.3k R (36% return rate)

What's happening in CA-08 and CA-42? Are GOP return rates usually that lagged in those districts? Those seem like pretty bad signs for the GOP.

I will let some of our resident CA experts speak to that question, but it's really starting to look like a meltdown sort of scene among Republican voters up and down the entire West Coast.

Waiting until the last day to vote is not in any way shape or form a normal pattern of voting for California Republicans, especially with easy access for VbM which has been around a long time...

I'll let others with more expertise speak to the districts, but even West Coast wipe out style starts to look like massive swings even in the most unexpected places (My Trump supporting Atlas Colleagues that should be good news--- right?).

Meanwhile Biden rolling at +10% in respectable NTL polls... Biden has significant room to expand in CA even in some of the most impenetrable CD's come 2020 GE.

[Adam Griffin]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

Not great, especially since I have an hour or so before the worst even gets here.

It almost looks like it's changed course slightly over the past half hour and is taking a more eastward turn rather than northeast (which will keep the heavy winds over NE GA & most of the metro longer). Personally I'm glad, as we've just been getting just the edge of the winds here and if it is pivoting, we're not going to have more than 20 mph winds. Gonna be bad if 40-50 mph winds sit over the rest of North GA for an additional hour or two, though.

[NOVA Green]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

Not great, especially since I have an hour or so before the worst even gets here.

It almost looks like it's changed course slightly over the past half hour and is taking a more eastward turn rather than northeast (which will keep the heavy winds over NE GA & most of the metro longer). Personally I'm glad, as we've just been getting just the edge of the winds here and if it is pivoting, we're not going to have more than 20 mph winds. Gonna be bad if 40-50 mph winds sit over the rest of North GA for an additional hour or two, though.

Glad all y'all are doing all right up there so far...

What are the temps looking like if the power goes down for a few days?

Assuming you both have your emergency kits in place?

[Adam Griffin]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

Not great, especially since I have an hour or so before the worst even gets here.

It almost looks like it's changed course slightly over the past half hour and is taking a more eastward turn rather than northeast (which will keep the heavy winds over NE GA & most of the metro longer). Personally I'm glad, as we've just been getting just the edge of the winds here and if it is pivoting, we're not going to have more than 20 mph winds. Gonna be bad if 40-50 mph winds sit over the rest of North GA for an additional hour or two, though.

Glad all y'all are doing all right up there so far...

What are the temps looking like if the power goes down for a few days?

Assuming you both have your emergency kits in place?

Lows near freezing Sunday and Monday morning, but thankfully an outage for that length of time isn't likely unless it did more damage. Might be different in other parts of the state, though.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I found the 2018 early vote tracker for California - https://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/


Keep in mind, a lot of the early vote in 2018 was late ballots postmarked on Election Day (Hence the OC/CD-21 flips weeks after the election).

With that being said, because I'm in election mode and lacking sleep already, I got a spreadsheet going.


Here's the total number of ballots returned + share of total votes





And the return rate by party

[Horus]

Power is out all over the Atlanta metro this morning. If the data looks funny here today that'll be why.

[Tender Branson]

JMC guy says that Hawaii is now the first state at 100% or more of their 2016 total vote.

TX and MT not far behind.

[woodley park]

Are folks following Jon Ralston's Nevada analysis? Seems like he is treated like an authoritative source on Nevada polling, yet I've been highly unimpressed by the way he conducts himself on Twitter. After hyping up major news that was going to "upset" some people and exhilarate others, he capped last night/this morning with this tweet..



..yet, another data scientist following Nevada early voting followed up a few hours later with data that contradicts Ralston's dooming.



Seems like everything in Nevada is going.. fine? We already have better D turnout than 2016, with more time to go. There is already a significant lead for Biden based just on Democrat ballots, let alone Republicans ditching Trump and the indies.

[wbrocks67]

It really feels like Ralston knows that the #s are going to be a little funky for Dems depending on the mail rate/processed amount for that specific day, and he's using that to his advantage to stoke his horse race narrative right now

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems proceed beyond 2016 EV Turnout but Republicans catching up.   Just need to keep at same level as Reps in the end.  NPAs will hit their 2016 EV % today

Dems  56.4% (+2.8 )
Reps   53.9%  (+3.7)
NPAs   40.2%  (+3.0)





Democratic Behemoth Broward and Duval (JAX) on pace to achieve 2016 EV Turnout this morning.  Democrats have achieved already in 54/68 counties.   All the talk about Miami-Dade but they are quietly banking 3% each day.    Pinellas past  60% of all Dem voters!

[n1240]

NC 10/28, day 13 early in-person vote:

Dem 59066 (29.2%)
Rep 77320 (38.3%)
Una 65753 (32.5%)
Total 202139

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 93736 (38.5%)
Rep 83495 (34.3%)
Una 66344 (27.2%)
Total 243575

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1096969 (36.5%)
Rep 1038755 (34.6%)
Una 865650 (28.8%)
Total 3001374

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1493822 (38.8%)
Rep 1208633 (31.4%)
Una 1146929 (29.8%)
Total 3849384

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 1005503 (42.7%)
Rep 749967 (31.9%)
Una 595386 (25.3%)
Total 2350856

R lead in early in-person vote gradually increasing each weekday once again, but total votes down. Interestingly the raw number of unaffiliated voters who voted early in-person yesterday was higher than two days ago, while the raw number of D and R voters decreased. The share of unaffiliated voters voting by mail is also interestingly high, 40% of new mail-in ballots were from unaffiliated voters (35% Dem, 25% GOP).

[wbrocks67]

So right now, Dems have nearly the same lead with 3.9mil cast versus the end of 2016 EV, which was only 3.2mil cast. Again, the fact that their at nearly parity (285K vs 304K) with 700K more votes in, and UNAs are likely breaking Biden this year, I'd say again that NC is looking pretty good for Dems so far.

What day is the last for NC early voting?

The electorate is also looking less white (so far)
Total 2016 NC exit poll: 70% white/30% non-white (+40 white)
2020 EV so far: 66% white/34% non-white (+32 white)

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 2,991,015 (40.5%)
Reps 2,784,101 (37.7%)
Other 1,604,955 (21.7%)
= 7,380,071

Dems still have a +207K lead. Was wondering why there weren't many doomer posts yesterday as there were before - it appears Dems had a better day yesterday than they've had so far this week.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

God knows I'd love a Senator Porter but I'd be very surprised to see Newsom appoint somebody not named Alex Padilla.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

God knows I'd love a Senator Porter but I'd be very surprised to see Newsom appoint somebody not named Alex Padilla.

Justice Porter to replace Breyer next summer if Dems have the senate?

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

Maybe a President Porter someday too.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
34.6% of 2016 turnout

Dems 1,429,082 (67.6%)
Reps 466,954 (22.1%)
Other 216,959 (10.3%)
= 2,112,995

Dems return rate is 73.4%, Reps only 59.3%. Dem lead is now closing in on a million @ +962K. It was +928K yesterday.

[Red Wall]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

[wbrocks67]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

This article is such a hot mess and so wrong I dont even know where to start.

[SLA8]

it's an opinion piece first of all

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems proceed beyond 2016 EV Turnout but Republicans catching up.   Just need to keep at same level as Reps in the end.  NPAs will hit their 2016 EV % today

Dems  56.4% (+2.8 )
Reps   53.9%  (+3.7)
NPAs   40.2%  (+3.0)





Democratic Behemoth Broward and Duval (JAX) on pace to achieve 2016 EV Turnout this morning.  Democrats have achieved already in 54/68 counties.   All the talk about Miami-Dade but they are quietly banking 3% each day.    Pinellas past  60% of all Dem voters!

Something's going on in Tampa too.

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of the focus has shifted to Georgia but the North Carolina numbers are getting really insane.  Charlotte in particular is looking really good.

[Non Swing Voter]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

[Ljube]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You may be right. These ballots will be set aside and then, if they can influence the result, and if Trump is in the lead, will be thrown out.