2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Florida Man for Crime]

I saw a chart yesterday that showed the most common name among Harris county early voters was Nguyen.

That is very interesting. There are not many swing states where higher Asian American turnout would make much difference because the Asian-American population is fairly small and somewhat concentrated in safe blue coastal states like CA and NY and VA, but among those Texas is probably the biggest one where a large increase in Asian-American turnout could make a difference, with Harris, Fort Bend, and Collin Counties being the epicenters. It could also make some difference in Georgia.

Nguyen is a Vietnamese last name. Vietnamese-Americans are the most pro-Trump subgroup of Asian-Americans. There is a generational divide between older Vietnamese-Americans who favor Trump and the GOP, meanwhile younger Vietnamese-Americans favor Biden and the Dems.

Many older Vietnamese-Americans believe that the Democrats are "communists/socialists" and that Democrats "suck up to China". There is a historical anger among many Vietnamese people towards China because China occupied Vietnam 4 separate times in the past. Many Vietnamese people like Trump's "tough" rhetoric on China. Also, there is a decent amount of Vietnamese-Americans who are Catholic and thus they are heavily anti-abortion and anti-LGBT.

It's true that Vietnamese-Americans historically voted Republican, but over the past decade or so they have been trending more and more Dem, especially in the Trump era. Just look at precinct results in places like Little Saigon in Orange County CA over time and especially in 2016/2018 and you will see a dramatic change. As with other groups, 2nd generation/younger Vietnamese-Americans are more likely to be Dem (and also more likely to be citizens/eligible to vote).

In the case of Harris County TX in particular, there is plenty of reason to be skeptical that the Vietnamese-American vote is going to vote for Trump based on previous elections. For example, see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Vo

No doubt Trump will win some votes among Vietnamese-Americans, and I would also bet he will do better among them than among other Asian-American subgroups, but I strongly doubt he is going to win them, especially in urban counties like Harris.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona at 80% of 2016 turnout and Dems still have a +3% lead. If they're killing it with Indies, then things are looking very good for Biden here.

ARIZONA (80.4% of 2016 turnout)
Dems 833,154 (38.9%)
Reps 768,386 (35.9%)
Other 538,819 (25.2%)
= 2,140,359

Dems at 70.4% return rate, Reps at 64.0%

[xavier110]

Arizona at 80% of 2016 turnout and Dems still have a +3% lead. If they're killing it with Indies, then things are looking very good for Biden here.

ARIZONA (80.4% of 2016 turnout)
Dems 833,154 (38.9%)
Reps 768,386 (35.9%)
Other 538,819 (25.2%)
= 2,140,359

Dems at 70.4% return rate, Reps at 64.0%

We are barreling toward 3.2-3.3m total votes

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I saw a chart yesterday that showed the most common name among Harris county early voters was Nguyen.

That is very interesting. There are not many swing states where higher Asian American turnout would make much difference because the Asian-American population is fairly small and somewhat concentrated in safe blue coastal states like CA and NY and VA, but among those Texas is probably the biggest one where a large increase in Asian-American turnout could make a difference, with Harris, Fort Bend, and Collin Counties being the epicenters. It could also make some difference in Georgia.

Nguyen is a Vietnamese last name. Vietnamese-Americans are the most pro-Trump subgroup of Asian-Americans. There is a generational divide between older Vietnamese-Americans who favor Trump and the GOP, meanwhile younger Vietnamese-Americans favor Biden and the Dems.

Many older Vietnamese-Americans believe that the Democrats are "communists/socialists" and that Democrats "suck up to China". There is a historical anger among many Vietnamese people towards China because China occupied Vietnam 4 separate times in the past. Many Vietnamese people like Trump's "tough" rhetoric on China. Also, there is a decent amount of Vietnamese-Americans who are Catholic and thus they are heavily anti-abortion and anti-LGBT.

It's true that Vietnamese-Americans historically voted Republican, but over the past decade or so they have been trending more and more Dem, especially in the Trump era. Just look at precinct results in places like Little Saigon in Orange County CA over time and especially in 2016/2018 and you will see a dramatic change. As with other groups, 2nd generation/younger Vietnamese-Americans are more likely to be Dem (and also more likely to be citizens/eligible to vote).

In the case of Harris County TX in particular, there is plenty of reason to be skeptical that the Vietnamese-American vote is going to vote for Trump based on previous elections. For example, see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Vo

No doubt Trump will win some votes among Vietnamese-Americans, and I would also bet he will do better among them than among other Asian-American subgroups, but I strongly doubt he is going to win them, especially in urban counties like Harris.

We agree pretty much 100%. I never said that Trump would win the Vietnamese-American vote and I did say that younger Vietnamese-Americans favor the Democratic Party.

So yeah, I was just explaining some of the dynamics politically among Vietnamese-Americans.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 16 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 28) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY              1,270,281    51.2%     2016:   96.8%   2018: 105.2%
FORT BEND COUNTY           291,984    60.5%     2016: 111.4%    2018: 114.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      211,312    57.1%   2016:  103.3%   2018: 111.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY          123,821    54.2%   2016:  100.8%   2018: 109.0%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                 698,959    50.0%     2016:  92.1%    2018:   96.0%
TARRANT COUNTY              640,089    52.8%     2016:  95.8%  2018:  101.9%
COLLIN COUNTY                 404,458    62.4%    2016: 111.9%    2018: 113.6%
DENTON COUNTY                341,646    60.5%    2016: 114.4%    2018: 115.5%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   603,173    50.7%   2016: 102.3%  2018: 109.8%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  494,704   57.9%  2016: 103.6%  2018:  102.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        235,348   62.4%   2016: 115.9%   2018:   113.0%
HAYS COUNTY                       86,637   56.7%   2016: 120.1%    2018:  108.6%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                192,648    39.4%  2016:   90.0%    2018:    94.6%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              163,399    41.8%   2016:  94.2%    2018: 107.7%
NUECES COUNTY                  98,998    46.8%   2016:  94.8%    2018: 105.2%
CAMERON COUNTY              84,140     38.4%   2016:  91.4%    2018: 108.0%


I should clarify that turnout numbers are based on the 2016 Presidential vote totals & 2018 Senate vote totals. I understand that not everyone who voted casted a ballot for the Presidential race, same with Senate. I can't find total turnout by county based on who sent in a ballot. Just wanted to point that out after some confusion I had regarding Harris' reporting

[exopolitician]

The Collin and Denton county numbers. 😲😳

[Stockdale for Veep]

Is there any polling data/average on Florida's NPA's?

[SaneDemocrat]

The Collin and Denton county numbers. 😲😳

You think those are bad numbers for Biden?

[exopolitician]

The Collin and Denton county numbers. 😲😳

You think those are bad numbers for Biden?

No, not at all.

From trends and such high turnout (and personal experience voting out here in McKinney) I think these are all encouraging signs for Biden.

[NCJeff]

I'm getting more excited about the North Carolina numbers.

Durham 2016 vote = 156k, now = 145k

Orange 2016 vote = 82k, now = 67k

Mecklenburg 2016 vote = 473k.  Now = 419k

Wake 2016 vote = 528k.  now = 453k

Don't forget Buncombe, home to Asheville.

Any idea what's driving Chatham county's turnout so high?  They are at 66% of registered voters, no other county is above 60% right now.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Tarrant County has surpassed 2016 total vote as of 5 PM Central!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Is there any polling data/average on Florida's NPA's?

From the most recent Monmouth poll:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321861440286973954

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The Collin and Denton county numbers. 😲😳

You think those are bad numbers for Biden?

Hillary Clinton on average won about 75% of the new voters in 2016 in Williamson, Collin, and Denton. That’s assuming there was no party switching, which also happens. New voters here is good for Biden.

[Storr]

Tarrant County has surpassed 2016 total vote as of 5 PM Central!

Not that I don't believe you. But do you have a source?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Tarrant County has surpassed 2016 total vote as of 5 PM Central!

Not that I don't believe you. But do you have a source?

Tarrant has a live tracker: https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

Yesterday Tarrant reported 637,426 votes so we needed 31,088 votes today to surpass that, which we hit at the 4:59 pm report!

[Storr]

Tarrant County has surpassed 2016 total vote as of 5 PM Central!

Not that I don't believe you. But do you have a source?

Tarrant has a live tracker: https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

Yesterday Tarrant reported 637,426 votes so we needed 31,088 votes today to surpass that, which we hit at the 4:59 pm report!

YES. Thanks you!

[wbrocks67]

NC passes 4 million.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

Tonight's the 24-hour Harris voting event, right?

[Gass3268]

2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

Tonight's the 24-hour Harris voting event, right?

Correct

[philly09]

Broward has surpassed 700,000 votes. 83% of the 2016 total. Dems are 58.3% statewide.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321935827274993671

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA

Votes Cast:
Democratic: 3,083,486  (+169,291)
Republican: 2,914,195
NPA/Other: 1,676,716

Total: 7,674,397

Registered voters who have NOT voted yet:
NPA/Other: 2,292,887
Republican: 2,254,817 (+35,049)
Democratic: 2,219,768

Total: 6,767,472

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

If these new voters are anywhere near as Dem in Williamson as they were in 2016 and 2018, the pundits are going to look really stupid next week having John Carter at Likely or especially Safe R!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

2 hours before polls close in Texas & Williamson County is already within 400 votes of yesterday's totals, which were the highest of the week.

Might be hard to believe given how turnout looks already, but I have a feeling tomorrow is gonna be a big voting day in Texas

Tonight's the 24-hour Harris voting event, right?

Correct

I wonder if we'll get any turnout updates from Harris County tonight. I mean the vote/VBM reports, not tweets

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Thursday 5 PM Update:, 164,823 votes have been cast thus far on Thursday.

This includes 127,771 in-person votes and 37,052 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,444,185 in-person & 1,144,157 by mail, for a grand total of 3,588,342 (86.15% of 2016 total vote).