2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1321654543701213184?s=21

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1321654543701213184?s=21

Don't tell Ralston, he'll block you.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

Wow! We really need to be freaking out about Georgia on here at least as much as Texas. This is happening!

[Bootes Void]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

When does early voting end in Georgia?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

When does early voting end in Georgia?

Friday and it will almost certainly have the biggest numbers of early voting as it usually does.

[xavier110]

NV is just simply not a thing. It will not be close. Move on, look elsewhere

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321628279187660800

A good reminder that Republicans can't expect Election Day to be as Red as people here claim.  They are eating into their Election Day vote as well. 

[Minnesota Mike]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

thanks does it update every other day?

[Non Swing Voter]

does anyone know how big Souls to the Polls is the last Sunday in Florida? 

Dems are at 56% turnout and are gaining about 3% every day.  So if they got to 59 on Thursday, 62 on Friday, 65 Saturday, we could be looking at close to 70% turnout on Sunday if that's a big day.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

Wow! We really need to be freaking out about Georgia on here at least as much as Texas. This is happening!

Georgia is going to come very close to reaching 100% of '16 total turnout via EV alone - if not exceeding it. The only variable that could depress this will be tonight's tropical storm that may affect tomorrow's EV in the northern portions of the state.

If Wednesday's raw figures hold as an average over the next two days, Georgia will end in-person EV at 93.1% of '16 turnout (not including any of the 600k+ mail ballots that have yet to be returned; if half of those are returned, we'll be right at 100% by Election Day).

[Gass3268]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20

Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20
Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

yes, but they say it's the opposite of 2018 where repbs voted early and dems closed the gap towards the end, just like repbs are doing now, but i think if they get like 30-50k lead that gives them a shot of keeping it close state wide if the rural margins are there. there isn't in person voting in AZ right?

[Gass3268]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20
Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

yes, but they say it's the opposite of 2018 where repbs voted early and dems closed the gap towards the end, just like repbs are doing now, but i think if they get like 30-50k lead that gives them a shot of keeping it close state wide if the rural margins are there. there isn't in person voting in AZ right?

There is in-person, but culturally AZ is pretty close to becoming an VBM state.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

[xavier110]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20
Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

yes, but they say it's the opposite of 2018 where repbs voted early and dems closed the gap towards the end, just like repbs are doing now, but i think if they get like 30-50k lead that gives them a shot of keeping it close state wide if the rural margins are there. there isn't in person voting in AZ right?

What? Ds did not close any gap at the end of 2018. As the above poster mentioned they’re not even close to how it was in 2018 either.

The lag that caught Sinema up was simply tranches of mail ballots getting counted from various send dates. They couldn’t process early votes like they do now.

Now, all early votes can get counted two weeks before Election Day.

It’s hard to figure out what lead the Rs would need in early votes to win Maricopa. It would probably have to be significant. Is are going to break way harder than 10 points for Biden here and the GOP registered voter base will also have way more defections to Biden than most counties in the US, if things like AZ06 being competitive are true.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/28/20 AM UPDATE (Day 8 of Full Reports)


Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 1,541,944 (77.0% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +8.5% Daily Jump
                                                                 (52.3% of 2020 TOTAL RV)          +5.8% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7696894#msg7696894

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

10/28/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



1.) REG DEMs now leading PUBs by +280k Raw Votes vs the HRC > Trump +220k DEM Raw Vote FINAL Margin.

2.) NAV / 3rd Party Voters flipped back to 2nd place and bumped PUBs down to 3rd Place again, after a few days of sea-saws.

10/28/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



1.) DEM Cumulative Raw Vote % are continuing to decrease (as anticipated) and PUB Cumulative Raw Vote % is trickling up, and REG MISC have now inched up to 27% of the Raw Vote % by Reg.

2.) These spreads will likely flatten a bit, especially with what will likely continue to be a surge of MISC Party voters as we move into the last Week of the Election.

10/28/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



1.) The Turnout Gap dropped a bit to only a +11.2% DEM TO lead in terms of turning out their registered voters to the polls.

2.) 66.4% of REG DEMs have now had their ballots received versus 55.2% of Registered PUBs and 37.2% of REG 3rd Party / NAVs.

3.) I am a bit bemused about what is going on here. Is it simply just that DEM enthusiasm is through the roof, or declining Republican enthusiasm, or has Trump somehow caused Oregon Republicans in the first vote by mail state in the Nation to somehow doubt the way in which they have been casting their votes for ~20 Years.

Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration:



1.) There are still 1.4 Million Ballots not yet received in Oregon, of which over 50% are Miscellaneous Ballots and roughly 25% DEM and 25% PUB.

2.) We have yet to see the full impact combined impact of VBM and AVR in OR in a Presidential Election, so have yet to really understand the potential impacts of an additional 355k+ registered voters, if they actually show out to vote in large numbers.

3.) Side note, is that because many DMV services were suspended because of COVID-19, there is also a chance that many voters who would otherwise have received "unsolicited ballots" (joke), do not have current mailing addresses on file and will be automatically returned.

Daily votes batch from 10/27/20 AM to 10/28/AM reporting:



1.)  170.8k New Ballots Received, but DEMs now shrink slightly again to a daily NET RAW VOTE lead of 6.8k to add the bank already cumulatively received.

2.) My suspicion that Republicans might overtake Democrats today in the daily update by party REG did not materialize.

Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:



1.) This update although it is a slight decrease in the Daily TV DEM Ballot % lead from the 10/27 AM Batch Updates (4.3% D to 4.0% D), Republicans drop as well as MISC voters jump from 30.7% to 32.9% (Which will likely favor Democrats by decent numbers in 2020).

I'll look at possibly going into more detail on the Oregon Megathread, which I've been neglecting as of late.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

PUBs can and will lose additional CD's in CA in 2020... wipeout, just like my brother who was on the HS Surfing scene in Cali, and then later as an adult in the SoCal surfing scene.

Still, TX surfing vote indicates a much greater loss for PUBs on the Gulf Coast of Tejas.

Talked to my Dad who is in his Mid '70s living in OC last Week and although he has been an Evangelical Christian for (30) Years has sometimes in his Younger Years voted DEM for PRES and then shifted a bit Republican with Reagan, voted for another Republican in the 2016 CA PUB Primary (Trump despising), basically came as close to telling me point blank that he voted for Biden.

I have never directly asked my Dad who he voted for in 2008, but he was def tossup Obama-McCain according to my Eldest Sister...

FWIW... This is not your Great-Grand Dads OC...

The real rebellion against the Reagan Youth has come home....

Maricopa will flip, just like their Hardcore Punk Sound from the '90s on the Half-Pipes of the Skate Ramps did, which exported a "scene" from SoCal to NV, AZ, not to mention pre-existing "Hubs" in places like SLC and Boise.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

The CA GOP better pray from now until Tuesday that there's a flatline in Democrat returns, GOP returns skyrocket & the Election Day vote is like 75% GOP.

Some of the competitive GOP seats in those districts:

25th:  AD-36, SD-21
39th:  AD-55, SD-29
45th:  AD-68, SD-37
48th:  AD-72, AD-73

A loss of 5 Assembly seats and 3 Senate seats, which is the exact losses they had in 2018. Republicans would be down to 8 Senate seats and 13 in the State Assembly if they all flipped.

To put that in perspective, Republicans won 20 Assembly races in 2018 (Since then, 1 Republican joined the Democrats and another became NPP).

And I'm just listing the competitive races as I know them. There wasn't much indication that Assemblywoman Baker, the lone Bay Area Republican, would end up losing a squeaker 2 years ago. I also didn't expect the then-Senate Minority Leader to go from a 31% in 2014 to a 3% nailbiter in 2018. All I know is that what's looking like a bad night for the CA GOP could end up being as big a bloodbath as 2018, perhaps moreso if that's possible.

[Stuart98]

Returned ballots in GOP Favored CDs:

CD01:
73.3k D (57% return rate)
41.9k I/O (35% return rate)
80.0k R (43% return rate)

CD04:
93.4k D (60% return rate)
54.5k I/O (39% return rate)
93.5k R (43% return rate)

CD08:
42.7k D (34% return rate)
23.7k I/O (21% return rate)
35.3k R (25% return rate)

CD22:
60.5k D (44% return rate)
30.8k I/O (28% return rate)
60.5k R (37% return rate)

CD23:
50.0k D (41% return rate)
30.5k I/O (27% return rate)
55.5k R (33% return rate)

CD42:
55.7k D (38% return rate)
30.3k I/O (24% return rate)
48.5k R (28% return rate)

CD50:
65.1k D (49% return rate)
42.2k I/O (32% return rate)
64.3k R (36% return rate)

What's happening in CA-08 and CA-42? Are GOP return rates usually that lagged in those districts? Those seem like pretty bad signs for the GOP.

[Adam Griffin]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

[Hammy]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

Not great, especially since I have an hour or so before the worst even gets here.