2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[DaleCooper]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

Conservatives say this about every election though.

Here is some food for a thought.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/1319725828024995840

The information we have about what Republicans are saying behind closed doors also seems to indicate that they expect and are planning on losing both the White House and the Senate.

[roxas11]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

This is really bad because if Biden ends up winning Big on election night they are now going to think that the election was stolen from them because they thought the early voter numbers showed them that trump going to win and trump himself is most likely going to say the same thing

Trump will claim that he was going great during early voting but biden somehow stole the election from him

[EJ24]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

This is really bad because if Biden ends up winning Big on election night
they are now going to think the election was stolen from them beacue they though the early voter number show them that trump going to win and trump himself is most likely going to say the same thing

Trump will claim that he was going great during early voting but biden somehow stole the election from him

That's been the plan this entire election. Convince his base that a loss is literally impossible.

Look at the blue avatars on this site. I promise you none of them will accept the result if Biden wins.

[NOVA Green]

Does anyone have more insight into the GA early vote? It's MASSIVE at this point, but kinda shocked that the black share is only 28.5%. In total in 2018, it was 30%. Kinda surprised to see it lower right now? Interested to see where Souls to the Polls effect the races in places like this.

Paging Former President Adam Griffin....

[NOVA Green]

Day one of early voting here in (Western) New York.

Went at 2PM, and saw a massive line of at least 100 people wrapping the entire perimeter of a Senior Center parking lot.

1 - Looks like I'll be dropping off my ballot on election night.

2 - If this is happening in highly Democratic WNY, imagine swing states. This is NOT good for the Trump campaign.

 It's been unmistakeable that after 4 years people who are strong Democrats can not wait to vote out Donald Trump. We've seen that everywhere.

Albeit I'm 20, I've never seen a line (for anything) that long in my life. Even compared to videos I've seen in swing states, it was insane.

The momentum and energy of the Dems is undeniable.

The New York Times posted an article regarding NY and the first day of early voting:

Thousands of New Yorkers flooded polling places and waited hours in long lines on Saturday, the first day of early voting, with many saying that they turned out because of concerns that their ballots might not be counted if they tried to vote by mail.

Lines stretched for blocks outside polling sites, including Barclays Center in Brooklyn and the Armory in Washington Heights, as election officials contended with malfunctioning electronic poll machines and tried to calm anxious voters.

The hurdles for voters and poll workers on the first day of voting reflected the challenges of a holding a contentious presidential election in the middle of a pandemic. But many people remained undeterred by the delays and the coronavirus....Late last month, the city’s Board of Elections came under fire after as many as 100,000 voters in Brooklyn received absentee ballots with the wrong names and addresses.

This is the first presidential election during which New Yorkers are allowed to cast ballots early. The State Legislature approved early voting in 2019, after Democrats took control, making New York one of the last states to adopt it....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/24/nyregion/new-york-early-voting.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Yank2133]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

Conservatives say this about every election though.

Here is some food for a thought.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/1319725828024995840

The information we have about what Republicans are saying behind closed doors also seems to indicate that they expect and are planning on losing both the White House and the Senate.

Yeah, Wasserman has even said that the private district polling has been awful for Republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Maybe a bold prediction but I think we hit 100 million votes by this coming Friday...

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320129918232109056

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone know if NY will be reporting daily voting totals?

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone have more insight into the GA early vote? It's MASSIVE at this point, but kinda shocked that the black share is only 28.5%. In total in 2018, it was 30%. Kinda surprised to see it lower right now? Interested to see where Souls to the Polls effect the races in places like this.

A good chunk of Black voters in GA aren't registered by race at all, so they'd fall under the Other category.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320129918232109056

And Wisconsin is already over 1.3 million votes, nearly matching Hillary's total in 2016.

[n1240]

Anyone know if NY will be reporting daily voting totals?

NY is very bad at reporting this type of stuff historically, definitely not expecting anything from the statewide BOE. Some counties may report them individually though, and I think NYC reports early in-person vote count daily during the early in-person voting period.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

[pantsaregood]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

does this mean it is time for joe to triage wississippi

[GeorgiaModerate]

Metro Atlanta weekend voters pleasantly surprised by short, efficient lines

[Lief 🗽]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

Someone in the replies makes the point that, since Trump has demonized mail-in voting so much, the Republicans who actually are voting by mail at this point may be disproportionately Biden voters. Which makes sense to  me.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Can you add Hays county to this list?

Sure! I can only find daily updates from 2018 though:


HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs) (Day 11)
2018:    54,942     40.9%  (76.1% of 2016 turnout)
2020:    70,386     46.1%  (97.5% of 2016 turnout)

[Lief 🗽]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

[anthonyjg]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

[Rep Jessica]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

Obama is in Florida right now. Biden going to Georgia doesn’t mean he’s triaged on Florida good grief

[Buzz]

Wouldn’t look too deep into the campaign stops.  Trump was in Nevada this week and is going to New Hampshire tomorrow.  Neither are going his way.

[philly09]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

Bill Clinton won GA, but lost Florida. It can happen.

[philly09]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

Obama is in Florida right now. Biden going to Georgia doesn’t mean he’s triaged on Florida good grief

Amy Klobuchar is also in Florida today. Hardly a triage.