2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Of those listed, the following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals (With another 6 days of early voting left):

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  161,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

[EJ24]

The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

All that suburban vote. Absolutely delicious.

[wbrocks67]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

[Ferguson97]

The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

All that suburban vote. Absolutely delicious.

Biden will win Texas. I’m calling it now.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1320116323309989891

10 days before the election.  Stunning.

[Tintrlvr]

The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

Montgomery is still under 2016, unless there’s a typo somewhere?

[wbrocks67]

Anyway... early voted today in Norristown, PA (Montco). PA has fake early voting where you have to request a mail in ballot in person, and then fill it out and return it right there. Waited in line for about 90 mins b/c they only bring in like 5-10 people at a time, but it was clear people were energized to vote and were willing to wait as long as it took. This is also a huge Dem area too.

[mijan]

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-iowa-health-elections-voting-fraud-and-irregularities-7eded080a100ba799c71d36c9f0f002c
Iowa Republicans  are doing everything to slowdown early voting.
Thousands of early voting requests from Jhonson and woodbury county were invalidated. If they were not invalidated then Dems would have added thousnds of more early voting lead into their already 137k early voting lead. I think Iowa R are making a mistake here.
This kinds of voter supression will backfire on them.

[EJ24]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/flywithkamala/status/1320114741243686913?s=21

[Buzz]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

@ me bruh.  Also no cherrypicking, posting real data as it comes out throughout the day.  Cry more!

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/flywithkamala/status/1320114741243686913?s=21

What are horses if not nature's land boats?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The following Texas counties have eclipsed their 2016 early vote totals

Harris          1,020,885   (977,279)
Dallas             563,148   (549,643)
Travis             399,954   (377,685)
Collin             333,514   (301,939)
Denton          283,253   (239,954)
Fort Bend       225,171   (213,567)
Williamson     193,856   (162,558)
El Paso          158,017   (150,446)
Montgomery  151,244   (156,818)
Galveston      102,655   (101,488)
Nueces            80,454    (74,844)
Cameron         68,504    (64,239)

And these are the counties that will likely beat it this weekend:

Tarrant         482,640   (515,230)
Bexar           466,948   (471,908)
Hidalgo        130,747   (139,833)

Montgomery is still under 2016, unless there’s a typo somewhere?

You're right! There is a typo. I meant to put 161k instead of 151k

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyway... early voted today in Norristown, PA (Montco). PA has fake early voting where you have to request a mail in ballot in person, and then fill it out and return it right there. Waited in line for about 90 mins b/c they only bring in like 5-10 people at a time, but it was clear people were energized to vote and were willing to wait as long as it took. This is also a huge Dem area too.

That sounds promising.  Sounds similar to Fairfax.  Not enough poll workers so the line escalated more than it had to but the suburbanites were angry enough at Trump to stay in line.

[Gass3268]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

@ me bruh.  Also no cherrypicking, posting real data as it comes out throughout the day.  Cry more!

I got no problem with Buzz and Jessica reporting data. It’s more everyone else freaking out at it.

[EJ24]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

@ me bruh.  Also no cherrypicking, posting real data as it comes out throughout the day.  Cry more!

LOL right, it's not cherrypicking, it's just a convenient coincidence that everything you post leaves out mail-in votes that show a large DEM advantage.

Everybody would be better served putting Buzz, Jessica, and Single Issue Covid voter on ignore, they add nothing valuable to this discussion, and you'll see their true colors shortly after the election. I'm sure Buzz will call for the repeal of the Votings Rights Act because those "other" people didn't vote the "correct" way.

[Umengus]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

because it's not a sure thing: if FL is tied, like polls say, then NPA are 50/50 (In ras poll, Trump wins indies by 5 and in some other polls, Biden win by a +6-+10 margin).

[Brittain33]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

[Buzz]

Oh my god. The Florida discussion in here is a flaming hot mess and is getting so ridiculous.

Bottom line is, we have no idea who is turning out to vote and who is going to come out on Election Day. People keep saying the Election Day vote will be huge GOP, but it's completely possible they are also cannibalizing their election day voters right now with in-person early vote. We just don't know.

Also, NPAs are going to likely favor Biden, and no one seems to be taking that into account.

It's primarily because of two posters here, who are cherrypicking data they like and posting it all throughout the thread, you have one in particular who will be forced into Atlas exile when Biden wins Florida, which I'm personally excited about but since he's a member of the Trump cult I'm sure he has no problem with pathalogically lying, so I don't expect him to actually leave.

@ me bruh.  Also no cherrypicking, posting real data as it comes out throughout the day.  Cry more!

LOL right, it's not cherrypicking, it's just a convenient coincidence that everything you post leaves out mail-in votes that show a large DEM advantage.

Everybody would be better served putting Buzz, Jessica, and Single Issue Covid voter on ignore, they add nothing valuable to this discussion, and you'll see their true colors shortly after the election. I'm sure Buzz will call for the repeal Votings Rights Act because those "other" people didn't vote the "correct" way.

I've posted VBM at least once everyday.  Not my fault you don't pay attention.  Go ahead and censor your surroundings. Nothing like only surrounding yourself with people you agree with!  I don't like the PA/TX data I see on here, but I don't go wetting my pants and blocking posters that post it.  Lolz

[pantsaregood]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

Can you elaborate on their reasoning?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Wow, who would've thought that 4 years of terrorizing increasingly liberal, increasingly non-white suburbs with corporate oppression, racist policies, and state sponsored xenophobia would have electoral consequences?

I pray that the Phil Scott types will take over the GOP, but I know it won't happen sadly.

[icemanj]

I interrupt the Florida bedwetting to bring you an update on Texas' early vote numbers:


Day 11 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 23)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:     678,155     33.9%
2016:     869,392     38.9%  (73.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     755,877     32.3%
2020:  1,020,885     41.2%  (77.8% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:     386,654     32.8%
2016:     485,081     37.7%  (68.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     468,715     35.1%
2020:     563,148     40.3%  (74.2% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     364,509     37.4%
2016:     457,966     42.5%  (75.0% of 2012 turnout) 
2018:     413,372     36.8%
2020:     482,640     39.8%  (72.2% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:     324,157     35.3%
2016:     424,135     40.6%  (82.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     370,277     33.7%
2020:     466,498     39.2%  (79.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     201,373     31.8%
2016:     334,132     46.1%  (86.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     326,927     42.1%
2020:     399,954     46.8%  (85.3% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     190,790     41.6%
2016:     270,853     50.4%  (89.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     254,362     43.9%
2020:     333,514     51.4%  (92.3% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     148,107     38.3%
2016:     214,546     46.2%  (88.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     203,582     40.9%
2020:     283,253     50.1%  (94.9% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:       82,035     21.4%
2016:     133,304     31.1%  (77.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     123,951     27.2%
2020:     158,017     32.4%  (73.8% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     142,101     41.8%
2016:     189,548     46.9%  (86.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     175,336     40.6%
2020:     225,171     46.7%  (85.9% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       88,890     29.2%
2016:     123,851     36.6%  (89.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     100,773     27.9%
2020:     130,747     33.4%  (75.4% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:       90,980     35.9%
2016:     144,966     48.3%  (88.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     145,475     43.6%
2020:     193,856     51.4%  (95.5% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     108,377     40.9%
2016:     140,912     45.2%  (81.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     124,416     37.3%
2020:     161,244     43.6%  (78.8% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:       74,037     39.9%
2016:       91,675     44.0%  (83.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       80,519     37.9%
2020:     102,655     44.9%  (83.5% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       36,878     20.4%
2016:       55,823     28.2%  (72.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       48,341     23.4%
2020:       68,504     31.3%  (74.4% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     53,194     27.7%
2016:     66,442     33.3%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     59,898     29.2%
2020:     80,454     38.0%  (77.1% of 2016 turnout)

Can you add Hays county to this list?

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have more insight into the GA early vote? It's MASSIVE at this point, but kinda shocked that the black share is only 28.5%. In total in 2018, it was 30%. Kinda surprised to see it lower right now? Interested to see where Souls to the Polls effect the races in places like this.

[Yank2133]

A lot of conservatives on Election Twitter really seem to believe the data and the environment are pointing to a Trump victory.

As every Democrat says, Trump could still win, but it's not because that's what the evidence now shows is likely to happen.

Conservatives say this about every election though.

Here is some food for a thought.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/1319725828024995840

[DaleCooper]

Earlier polling data indicated that black voters were more likely to vote on election day rather than mail their ballots, but I don't know if that took into account in-person early voting. That could possibly answer the small discrepancy so far in Georgia.