2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

What is Ralston even saying here? VBM ballots will continue to be counted past the weekend. Lol

His mind is still stuck on every other cycle. Mail is gonna come in every day until even past Election Day, why does it need to be in by the end of the in person voting?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

What is Ralston even saying here? VBM ballots will continue to be counted past the weekend. Lol

His mind is still stuck on every other cycle. Mail is gonna come in every day until even past Election Day, why does it need to be in by the end of the in person voting?

Someone who's on Twitter needs to tell him, lol.

[cwh2018]

Anyone want to guess on a number for final Texas turnout when all is said and done.  Texas just passed 8.1 million with 3 days left for early voting.  I think with population growth and a small spike in turnout nationwide Texas vote floor should be 10.5 million.  I expect Texas to ultimately fall pretty flat for everyone.  Despite the hype I think we will get about 10.8 million-11million.  For the hype to be justified I think you have to get close to 12 million.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

What is Ralston even saying here? VBM ballots will continue to be counted past the weekend. Lol

His mind is still stuck on every other cycle. Mail is gonna come in every day until even past Election Day, why does it need to be in by the end of the in person voting?

Let's wait and see what Ralston actually ends up predicting before we start attacking his analysis and conclusions.  The man has an almost perfect track record and knows far more about Nevada politics than everyone on Atlas combined.  His predictions are the gold standard for a reason and if anyone can make heads or tails of this cycle's craziness in NV, it's probably him.

[MATTROSE94]

Anyone want to guess on a number for final Texas turnout when all is said and done.  Texas just passed 8.1 million with 3 days left for early voting.  I think with population growth and a small spike in turnout nationwide Texas vote floor should be 10.5 million.  I expect Texas to ultimately fall pretty flat for everyone.  Despite the hype I think we will get about 10.8 million-11million.  For the hype to be justified I think you have to get close to 12 million.

Probably 11 million. Even though I think Joe Biden wins Texas with about 5.7 million votes, John Cornyn easily wins his reelection with maybe 9 million votes.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321456845014200331

What is Ralston even saying here? VBM ballots will continue to be counted past the weekend. Lol

His mind is still stuck on every other cycle. Mail is gonna come in every day until even past Election Day, why does it need to be in by the end of the in person voting?

Let's wait and see what Ralston actually ends up predicting before we start attacking his analysis and conclusions.  The man has an almost perfect track record and knows far more about Nevada politics than everyone on Atlas combined.  His predictions are the gold standard for a reason and if anyone can make heads or tails of this cycle's craziness in NV, it's probably him.

Yeah, okay, but he's wrong on a basic fact about the election, however, or at least, he's not being straightforward about it.

[forza nocta]

Anyone know what's going on in Tennessee? Their #s are pretty incredible too.

They were bottom 5 in turnout like Texas/Hawaii, so with a bigger push to vote this year and more early voting access, they have a lower bar to hit with their 2016 turnout than other states.

[wbrocks67]

GA so far

2018: 60% white/40% nonwhite (+20 white)
2020: 57% white/43% nonwhite (+14 white)

Given Biden doing better with Whites than Abrams possibly too, and many Black voters waiting until Election Day to vote, this looks very good for Biden so far.

[BlueSwan]

What's the most logical explanation for the comparatively low number of EV/VBM in the midwestern swing states?

[Dr. Arch]

What's the most logical explanation for the comparatively low number of EV/VBM in the midwestern swing states?

Almost entirely Democrats/Biden supporters are the ones sending in VBM and doing EV. At least, that's my take on it.

[Skill and Chance]

What's the most logical explanation for the comparatively low number of EV/VBM in the midwestern swing states?

It's much newer culturally there.  In person EV is a longstanding tradition in many Southern states and VBM is a longstanding tradition in many Western states.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

[Dr. Arch]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

Yeah, the return rate is what is most interesting to me. We all know Dems blew out Reps in terms of requesting ballots, but Reps are still lagging in returning their ballots. Dems seem to have gotten the message that the ballots need to be in ASAP.

[BlueSwan]

What's the most logical explanation for the comparatively low number of EV/VBM in the midwestern swing states?

It's much newer culturally there.  In person EV is a longstanding tradition in many Southern states and VBM is a longstanding tradition in many Western states.

Makes sense, thanks.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Ralston stuff seems odd to me, especially since he literally says "pending mail count" - so yeah, uh, it's not surprising that Dems lost ground in Washoe and Clark in *in person early voting* since the majority of Dems are... mailing in the votes... and you're doing an analysis .... *without* the mail count that will likely help Dems?

Like I said before too, it's not an apples to apples comparison either. If the mail is delayed, or one day is a bigger count than the rest, that will easily make things look better or worse. If today was a slow mail day and not as many ballots processed, then obviously it's going to look bad next to the live daily updates from early in person where votes are being processed *that day* compared to god knows whenever the mail decides to move for the mail in ballots.

Like let's say the mail is backed up and for 3 days in a row, they don't process a whole ton of ballots. Well of course Reps are going to look great for those 3 days since they are voting in person!

I trust Ralston, but this all seems like important context that he's willfully ignoring...

Also: is this a dumb question or is Ralston not even taking account that NPAs will likely go more for Biden this year than Clinton in 2016?

Ralston the surprise bedwetter of 2020?

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Democrats achieve the EV turnout % from 2016 with 5 days of early voting left.  Next goal, to bank tons more turnout before Sunday so they can blow past the Final 74.5% number on election day and at least match Republicans in the low 80s.




Dems have surpassed '16 EV Turnout now in 40 of 68 counties.   For comparison, at this time, Republicans have only done this in 5 counties.

Miami Dade hits 50% of all Dems registered but along with Orange county needs to keep the pressure on.  Large Hillsborough County (Tampa) has achieved '16 EV Turnout.   This might not get so much press but Dems are doing quite well in small/mid size counties.  I expect one outcome might be Trump winning these counties at much lower margins vs. '16

This analysis is really good.  Dems need to keep a singular focus on Orange and Miami Dade.

Everyone needs to remember that these were the two counties that mailed ballots out the latest.  It doesn't change the fact that we are where we are though and Dems need to get these people out.  These two places have a lot of young Democrats though so it's entirely plausible that you might see a lot of them vote on Election Day as young people procrastinate.  I'd still rather be Biden in Florida.

[compucomp]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

[Dr. Arch]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

I didn't say otherwise.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

Given how Biden is over performing Clinton among independents, substantially in some states, the metric is just getting out Democrats to vote.  There's no doubt Trump supporters are going to turn out but it's probably not going to be enough if Democrats are voting too, which they clearly are.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Update - I really doubt Republicans match their 2016 turnout with how pathetic their ballot returns have been so far.


Democrats have returned 70% of 2016 their ballots
Independents have returned 69% of their 2016 total ballots
Republicans only 49%

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

No one is saying this isn't cannibalization. Obviously it is, since PA voters have requested 3M+ ballots compared to like 100,000 in 2016.

The point though is that Dems are energized and Reps aren't. Dems have made sure to return 70% of their ballots and Reps only 54%. The fact that the difference is so wide makes me wonder if Rep enthusiasm isn't that high in PA.

[Skill and Chance]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

PA has widespread drop boxes, so the procrastinators have an option to ensure their votes will count as late as day of. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough?