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October 25, 2020, 12:27:59 PM
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  MT-PPP: Tied at 48%
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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Tied at 48%  (Read 1140 times)
VARepublican
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« on: October 12, 2020, 07:45:02 AM »
« edited: October 12, 2020, 07:53:17 AM by Latino NV-01 Rosen-Sisolak-Titus Voters for Trump »

Daines 48% (+4)
Bullock 48% (+2)

Bullock approval: 48/44 (+4, was +12)
Daines approval: 47/43 (+4, was +1)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MontanaOctober2020Poll.pdf
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VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 07:50:32 AM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2020, 07:52:16 AM »

October 9-10
798 voters
MoE: 3.5%
Changes with July 9-10 poll

Not sure 4% (-6)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2020, 07:57:02 AM »

Wow, Bullock might make it.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2020, 08:00:48 AM »

Undecideds are disproportionately non-white and disproportionately independent. This looks like a real nail-biter.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2020, 08:11:26 AM »

Very interesting. I'm glad we got another MT-Sen poll. What's interesting is that Bullock seems to be getting simillar crosstabs to Tester, but Tester was up in an off cycle where R turnout was ok, but D turnout was great. If Bullock is to win, it's prolly by the skin of his teeth. Since partisanship seems to be winning out more than I would like, tilt-lean R, but a 2012 MT-Sen style redux isn't totally out of the question.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2020, 08:12:38 AM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.
Undecideds are disproportionately non-white and disproportionately independent. This looks like a real nail-biter.

Lol, your analysis is pretty different from mine.  Smiley Just keep in mind that non-whites make up a very small percentage of the electorate in Montana (just 9%).
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2020, 08:25:41 AM »

Not optimistic about that one. I think at this point Harrison and maybe Hegar are more likely to win than Bullock.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2020, 08:39:00 AM »

Not optimistic about that one. I think at this point Harrison and maybe Hegar are more likely to win than Bullock.

They are literally tied with only 4% undecided/other
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YE
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2020, 09:04:01 AM »

This is a 50/50 ball if I've seen one.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2020, 09:07:57 AM »

This may be the closest race of the cycle, but we really have not gotten enough polling here.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2020, 09:14:04 AM »

Montana remains a Tossup/Lean R, as it has been for months. Bullock definitely still has a chance, although I think this election is for Daines to lose.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2020, 09:17:22 AM »

What's interesting is that Bullock seems to be getting simillar crosstabs to Tester, but Tester was up in an off cycle where R turnout was ok, but D turnout was great. If Bullock is to win, it's prolly by the skin of his teeth.

Don't underestimate the Montana Democratic Party's ability to turn out voters. It's pretty remarkable.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2020, 09:18:56 AM »

What's interesting is that Bullock seems to be getting simillar crosstabs to Tester, but Tester was up in an off cycle where R turnout was ok, but D turnout was great. If Bullock is to win, it's prolly by the skin of his teeth.

Don't underestimate the Montana Democratic Party's ability to turn out voters. It's pretty remarkable.

It is, but in 2018, despite Ds having massively higher turnout, Tester still only won by a pretty narrow margin (175k votes for Clinton in 2016 to 250k for Tester in 2018 despite little crossover support).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2020, 09:40:50 AM »

Tilt R.

I think Bullock's chances are between 40% and 45% to win. It would be nice as 51st or 52nd seat, but I wouldn't bank on MT to deliver the senate majority.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2020, 09:42:49 AM »

Pure tossup.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2020, 09:46:20 AM »

Really want surprise wins in MT, IA and GA so that we can ram DC and PR statehood through and have a relatively safe majority entering 2022.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2020, 09:47:38 AM »

I believe the final PPP poll in 2018 had Tester up 4, so yeah, this is looking very close. I imagine that most undecided voters are leaning toward Trump, given the state we’re talking about, and Bullock’s path always required winning over Trump voters open to voting for him. I’d give Daines a very slight edge here, but this race is far from over, and some of the “TN-SEN 2018 redux” takes from a couple of months ago aren’t going to look good.
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2020, 09:49:23 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 10:02:28 AM by Pollster »

When Bullock got in I posted tongue-in-cheek that this looked like a repeat of FL-SEN 2018 but it's really starting to look like it might actually be:

Incumbent Governor enters the race in the Spring and starts with a narrow lead over a quiet/low-profile incumbent Senator
Incumbent Senator is fairly discombobulated at the beginning but slowly pulls together a competent campaign
Incumbent Senator's competent campaign pulls ahead around the end of Summer/Labor Day
Incumbent Governor fights the race back to a tie in the final weeks
Incumbent Governor pulls off the narrowest of wins?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2020, 09:55:22 AM »

When Bullock got in I posted toung-in-cheek that this looked like a repeat of FL-SEN 2018 but it's really starting to look like it might actually be:

Incumbent Governor enters the race in the Spring and starts with a narrow lead over a quiet/low-profile incumbent Senator
Incumbent Senator is fairly discombobulated at the beginning but slowly pulls together a competent campaign
Incumbent Senator's competent campaign pulls ahead around the end of Summer/Labor Day
Incumbent Governor fights the race back to a tie in the final weeks
Incumbent Governor pulls off the narrowest of wins?

Definitely some parallels here. You might add "incumbent gov getting high grades on handling a disaster". Scott was praised for his Hurricane crisis management in 2018, now Bullock gets high marks for handling the pandemic. Sitting govs definitely have a much better track record winning a senate seat than former govs.
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Estrogen Kefauver
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2020, 09:55:37 AM »

I believe the final PPP poll in 2018 had Tester up 4, so yeah, this is looking very close. I imagine that most undecided voters are leaning toward Trump, given the state we’re talking about, and Bullock’s path always required winning over Trump voters open to voting for him. I’d give Daines a very slight edge here, but this race is far from over, and some of the “TN-SEN 2018 redux” takes from a couple of months ago aren’t going to look good.

90% of undecideds in this poll being Trump 2016 voters isn't such a crazy issue for Bullock when he and Tester both had to peel off huge amounts of them for their wins in 2016 and 2018. Not a favorable one, but not impossible.

To repeat what people have been saying here, this race will be down to the wire - it could be a real heartbreaker for Democrats (and Jon Tester, who probably never wants to work with Daines again).
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2020, 09:58:54 AM »

Yeah I was really bullish on this race for a long time but in the last month I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic. It seems to be fairly close but aside from the characteristics of this race I can’t imagine Montana having TWO Democrats Senators
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2020, 10:01:08 AM »

Polls showed Rosendale losing by landslide and the t ended up closer than we realize, Bullock is gonna win
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2020, 10:09:09 AM »

Reminder that in 2016, when Bullock was re-elected for governor, the last 3 polls were:

46-46
45-44
44-46

and Bullock won by 3.9% in the end.  This in a year where pretty much every race shifted hard against the Democrats at the last minute.

Don't underestimate Bullock.  He's an excellent politician.  Of course, COVID really hurts him in a retail state like Montana.
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woodley park
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2020, 10:18:08 AM »

If this year is as bad for the GOP as 2008 was -- and I would say 2020 is worse -- we are going to see most of the toss-ups go the Democrats' way. That is bad for Daines, Ernst, Collins, Marshall, Sullivan, and Graham -- and especially bad for Trump's fortunes in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.
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