MT-PPP: Tied at 48%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very interesting. I'm glad we got another MT-Sen poll. What's interesting is that Bullock seems to be getting simillar crosstabs to Tester, but Tester was up in an off cycle where R turnout was ok, but D turnout was great. If Bullock is to win, it's prolly by the skin of his teeth. Since partisanship seems to be winning out more than I would like, tilt-lean R, but a 2012 MT-Sen style redux isn't totally out of the question.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's interesting is that Bullock seems to be getting simillar crosstabs to Tester, but Tester was up in an off cycle where R turnout was ok, but D turnout was great. If Bullock is to win, it's prolly by the skin of his teeth.

Don't underestimate the Montana Democratic Party's ability to turn out voters. It's pretty remarkable.

It is, but in 2018, despite Ds having massively higher turnout, Tester still only won by a pretty narrow margin (175k votes for Clinton in 2016 to 250k for Tester in 2018 despite little crossover support).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I believe the final PPP poll in 2018 had Tester up 4, so yeah, this is looking very close. I imagine that most undecided voters are leaning toward Trump, given the state we’re talking about, and Bullock’s path always required winning over Trump voters open to voting for him. I’d give Daines a very slight edge here, but this race is far from over, and some of the “TN-SEN 2018 redux” takes from a couple of months ago aren’t going to look good.

90% of undecideds in this poll being Trump 2016 voters isn't such a crazy issue for Bullock when he and Tester both had to peel off huge amounts of them for their wins in 2016 and 2018. Not a favorable one, but not impossible.

To repeat what people have been saying here, this race will be down to the wire - it could be a real heartbreaker for Democrats (and Jon Tester, who probably never wants to work with Daines again).

Tester only won like 7% of Trumps voters according to exit polls if I remember. The real thing that put him over the edge were 2016 non-voters or 3rd part voters. Bullock will have to win over some Trump voters, but he doesn't need to win over 30% like everyone here likes to think. A lot of it will come down to turnout in this race, and who 3rd party voters like better since there won't be a 3rd party canidate on the ballot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bullock will win; Drained has no appeal beyond generic R.

I actually know quite a few Democrats who use drains for many different purposes such as in a sink. It's really only progressives that don't like drains because they waste too much water.