AZ, CO, GA, MI, NC, SC, TX - Morning Consult: Democrats and Perdue, Graham, Cornyn lead

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/13/senate-graham-harrison-supreme-court-polling/

First poll: September 8-17
Second poll: October 2-11

Each poll is of at least 699 likely voters with MoE per poll ranging from 2% to 4%.

AZ
Changes with September 5-14

Kelly 48% (-2)
McSally 41% (+3)

1144 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%

Kelly 49% (+1)
McSally 41% (n/c)

CO
Changes with August 21-30 poll

Hickenlooper 46% (-2)
Gardner 44% (+5)

837 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Hickenlooper 50% (+4)
Gardner 40% (-4)

GA
Changes with July 17-26 poll

Perdue 43% (-2)
Ossoff 43% (+1)

1837 likely voters
MoE: 2.3%

Perdue 46% (+3)
Ossoff 42% (-1)

MI
Changes with July 17-26 poll

Peters 48% (-1)
James 40% (+5)

1710 likely voters
MoE: 2.4%

Peters 49% (+1)
James 40% (n/c)

NC
Changes with August 14-23 poll

Cunningham 46% (-1)
Tillis 39% (n/c)

1993 likely voters
MoE: 2.2%

Cunningham 47% (+1)
Tillis 41% (+2)

SC
Changes with September 2-11 poll

Harrison 46% (+1)
Graham 45% (-1)

903 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Graham 48% (+3)
Harrison 42% (-4)

TX
Changes with July 24 - August 2 poll

Cornyn 45% (+1)
Hegar 38% (n/c)
Undecided 12%

3455 likely voters
MoE: 1.7%

Cornyn 47% (+2)
Hegar 38% (n/c)

Edit: added sample sizes/MoEs.

[wbrocks67]

AZ, CO, MI, NC look about right and what we've seen.

SC is weird, I could buy Graham going up 1 or 2, but Harrison losing 4% support from the last poll seems like a wonky sample. TX and GA have a large amount of undecideds.

Also, they had Hickenlooper down to +2? Really?

[ProgressiveModerate]

AZ, CO, MI, NC look about right and what we've seen.

SC is weird, I could buy Graham going up 1 or 2, but Harrison losing 4% support from the last poll seems like a wonky sample. TX and GA have a large amount of undecideds.

Also, they had Hickenlooper down to +2? Really?

My guess with SC is it's converging with the Presidential numbers, just like AZ and CO are.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sample sizes here: https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/#section-11

[wbrocks67]

Ah, this sample also has Trump at +12 in South Carolina, so that explains Graham being up 6

[woodley park]

I hope we can stop panicking about Michigan now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope we can stop panicking about Michigan now.

No, only polls that show decent news for Rs matter this cycle, haven't you heard?

[woodley park]

I hope we can stop panicking about Michigan now.

No, only polls that show decent news for Rs matter this cycle, haven't you heard?

Once this forum ends its abusive relationship with 2016, we will all be in a better place.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems to be a clear NeverTrump downballot R vote in the more urbanized red states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

They have released months' worth of tracking polls for TXSEN and TXPRES here: https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/13/texas-senate-polling-john-cornyn-mj-hegar/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still don't have any ME, KY, KS polls

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538 has the sample sizes for the August 29 - September 7 polls at 699 in each state

Edit: they've corrected that with different sample sizes for likely voters

AZ 900
CO 599
GA 1402
MI 1451
NC 1664
SC 782
TX 2555