MT-PPP: Tied at 48% (user search)

VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,755

	MT-PPP: Tied at 48% « on: October 12, 2020, 07:45:02 AM »
	« edited: October 12, 2020, 07:53:17 AM by Latino NV-01 Rosen-Sisolak-Titus Voters for Trump »

Daines 48% (+4)
Bullock 48% (+2)

Bullock approval: 48/44 (+4, was +12)
Daines approval: 47/43 (+4, was +1)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MontanaOctober2020Poll.pdf

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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,755

« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 07:50:32 AM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.

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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,755

« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2020, 08:12:38 AM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.

Undecideds are disproportionately non-white and disproportionately independent. This looks like a real nail-biter.

Lol, your analysis is pretty different from mine.

Just keep in mind that non-whites make up a very small percentage of the electorate in Montana (just 9%).

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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,755

« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2020, 11:06:43 AM »

Senator Heitkamp, who outperformed her polls just like she did in 2012, agrees with MacArthur’s take.

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