MT-PPP: Tied at 48%

[Sir Mohamed]

Tilt R.

I think Bullock's chances are between 40% and 45% to win. It would be nice as 51st or 52nd seat, but I wouldn't bank on MT to deliver the senate majority.

[Sir Mohamed]

When Bullock got in I posted toung-in-cheek that this looked like a repeat of FL-SEN 2018 but it's really starting to look like it might actually be:

Incumbent Governor enters the race in the Spring and starts with a narrow lead over a quiet/low-profile incumbent Senator
Incumbent Senator is fairly discombobulated at the beginning but slowly pulls together a competent campaign
Incumbent Senator's competent campaign pulls ahead around the end of Summer/Labor Day
Incumbent Governor fights the race back to a tie in the final weeks
Incumbent Governor pulls off the narrowest of wins?

Definitely some parallels here. You might add "incumbent gov getting high grades on handling a disaster". Scott was praised for his Hurricane crisis management in 2018, now Bullock gets high marks for handling the pandemic. Sitting govs definitely have a much better track record winning a senate seat than former govs.