VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%
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  VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%
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Author Topic: VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%  (Read 1187 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 22, 2020, 05:29:15 AM »

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Biden 56%
Trump 32%
Someone else 6%
None of the above 2%
Not sure/no opinion 3%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 06:31:46 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 06:34:04 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Wouldn't be super surprising to see Vermont slowly drift right since it's anomalous compared to most other rural areas of the country. Will be a few more cycles before this makes it competitive though.

That's assuming this isn't just noise.
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Woody
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 06:35:48 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Yeah, it will probably swing & trend R this cycle, even if Biden wins.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2020, 06:36:09 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 07:09:51 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.

For example, I’m not entirely sure Biden will do that well in SC.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 07:12:28 AM »

Leahy needs to retire and Zuckerman needs to be Senator, Leahy is too old
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 09:04:20 AM »

If Trump's getting 32%, that means he will hold Essex County-the only county in the state that he carried in 2016 (and the only county carried by George W. Bush in 2004). Obviously, Biden should consolidate most of the third-party vote, so he will win a clear majority in all counties carried by Clinton with a plurality.
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VAR
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 09:09:02 AM »

This is still a good poll for Trump though. 32% is a slight improvement over 30% he got in 2016.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 09:20:25 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 09:52:03 AM by Crumpets »

10% of the 2016 vote was write-ins for Bernie. I have a hard time seeing it swing to Trump this time around even if it does trend to the right in the next couple of cycles.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 01:20:57 PM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.

For example, I’m not entirely sure Biden will do that well in SC.

SC is nowhere near as R as VT is D.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 02:22:25 PM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Wouldn't be super surprising to see Vermont slowly drift right since it's anomalous compared to most other rural areas of the country. Will be a few more cycles before this makes it competitive though.

That's assuming this isn't just noise.

Vermont is anomalous for a reason. It might trend R but not to the point of becoming a swing state.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 02:32:40 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 02:44:41 PM by KaiserDave »

Quote
Leahy needs to retire and Zuckerman needs to be Senator, Leahy is too old

They're grooming Molly Gray for that. Either way it will be more hair than the state's entire congressional delegation has had in decades.

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love to have your input. Smiley
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2020, 03:08:15 PM »

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love love love to have your input. Smiley

I don't know how much anyone wants to hear me kvetching about the Democrats and their ridiculous climate change bill, or Burlington Progressive who believe that their immense concern for social justice exempts them from open meeting laws and union contracts whenever they become inconvenient...

Debbie Ingram's endorsement is an interesting development and Gray's polling here is pathetic. That said, it would an upset if she lost, and when you look at who is undecided in this poll her advantage is clear enough.

Grim.

Is there a pro-union faction at the local level?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2020, 03:27:16 PM »

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love love love to have your input. Smiley

I don't know how much anyone wants to hear me kvetching about the Democrats and their ridiculous climate change bill, or Burlington Progressive who believe that their immense concern for social justice exempts them from open meeting laws and union contracts whenever they become inconvenient...

Debbie Ingram's endorsement is an interesting development and Gray's polling here is pathetic. That said, it would an upset if she lost, and when you look at who is undecided in this poll her advantage is clear enough.

Oh please do. We'd love your commentary.
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