VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 02, 2023, 11:23:36 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: VT - Braun Research: Biden +23%  (Read 1147 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,593


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 22, 2020, 05:29:15 AM »

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Biden 56%
Trump 32%
Someone else 6%
None of the above 2%
Not sure/no opinion 3%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,170
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 06:31:46 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,690
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -6.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 06:34:04 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Wouldn't be super surprising to see Vermont slowly drift right since it's anomalous compared to most other rural areas of the country. Will be a few more cycles before this makes it competitive though.

That's assuming this isn't just noise.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,672


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 06:35:48 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Yeah, it will probably swing & trend R this cycle, even if Biden wins.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,593


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2020, 06:36:09 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,016
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 07:09:51 AM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.

For example, Iím not entirely sure Biden will do that well in SC.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 82,205
Jamaica
P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 07:12:28 AM »

Leahy needs to retire and Zuckerman needs to be Senator, Leahy is too old
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,941
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 09:04:20 AM »

If Trump's getting 32%, that means he will hold Essex County-the only county in the state that he carried in 2016 (and the only county carried by George W. Bush in 2004). Obviously, Biden should consolidate most of the third-party vote, so he will win a clear majority in all counties carried by Clinton with a plurality.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,758
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 09:09:02 AM »

This is still a good poll for Trump though. 32% is a slight improvement over 30% he got in 2016.
Logged
Filing False Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,635
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 09:20:25 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 09:52:03 AM by Crumpets »

10% of the 2016 vote was write-ins for Bernie. I have a hard time seeing it swing to Trump this time around even if it does trend to the right in the next couple of cycles.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,692
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 01:20:57 PM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.

The dominant party tends to be a little underrated by polls in deep red/blue states.

For example, Iím not entirely sure Biden will do that well in SC.

SC is nowhere near as R as VT is D.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 02:22:25 PM »

This would be kind of an improvement for Trump compared to 2016, when it was H+26.
Wouldn't be super surprising to see Vermont slowly drift right since it's anomalous compared to most other rural areas of the country. Will be a few more cycles before this makes it competitive though.

That's assuming this isn't just noise.

Vermont is anomalous for a reason. It might trend R but not to the point of becoming a swing state.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 02:32:40 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 02:44:41 PM by KaiserDave »

Quote
Leahy needs to retire and Zuckerman needs to be Senator, Leahy is too old

They're grooming Molly Gray for that. Either way it will be more hair than the state's entire congressional delegation has had in decades.

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love to have your input. Smiley
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,593


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2020, 03:08:15 PM »

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love love love to have your input. Smiley

I don't know how much anyone wants to hear me kvetching about the Democrats and their ridiculous climate change bill, or Burlington Progressive who believe that their immense concern for social justice exempts them from open meeting laws and union contracts whenever they become inconvenient...

Debbie Ingram's endorsement is an interesting development and Gray's polling here is pathetic. That said, it would an upset if she lost, and when you look at who is undecided in this poll her advantage is clear enough.

Grim.

Is there a pro-union faction at the local level?
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2020, 03:27:16 PM »

Do you think Gray is a shoo-in for the Lt Gov. job however? In any case join us in the VT-Gov chat we'd love love love to have your input. Smiley

I don't know how much anyone wants to hear me kvetching about the Democrats and their ridiculous climate change bill, or Burlington Progressive who believe that their immense concern for social justice exempts them from open meeting laws and union contracts whenever they become inconvenient...

Debbie Ingram's endorsement is an interesting development and Gray's polling here is pathetic. That said, it would an upset if she lost, and when you look at who is undecided in this poll her advantage is clear enough.

Oh please do. We'd love your commentary.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 13 queries.