MI-Mitchell Research: HD polls
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  MI-Mitchell Research: HD polls
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Author Topic: MI-Mitchell Research: HD polls  (Read 949 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 21, 2020, 04:49:01 PM »

HD-19: D 47-45, Biden 49-44, James leads, Stevens 47-46 (Trump +8 in 2016)
HD-25: D 48-41, Biden 51-44, Peters 48-43 (Trump +10 in 2016)
HD-39: D 47-43, Biden 54-39, Peters 51-40, Stevens 53-39 (Trump +4 in 2016)
HD-45: D 45-44, Biden 50-43, Peters 49-45, Slotkin 54-38 (Trump +7 in 2016)
HD-61: D 45-41, Biden 54-38, Peters 52-39, Hoadley 54-35 (Clinton +4 in 2016)
HD-62: D 52-39, Biden 55-38, Peters 50-39, Scholten 48-41 (Trump +2 in 2016)
HD-104: R 48-40, Trump 48-44, James 47-45 (Trump +12 in 2016)

n=~300, MoE: 5%

https://mirsnews.podbean.com/e/mirs-monday-sept-21-2020/
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 04:50:33 PM »

Good for James
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Stuart98
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 04:52:30 PM »

Disastrous numbers for Trump. James running ahead of Trump by a bit as expected but nowhere near enough to win.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 04:53:02 PM »

Really good polls here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 04:53:25 PM »

Wow, swings of 13%, 16%, 19%, 14%, 12%, 15%, 8% for Biden. No wonder Trump is triaging it.
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Splash
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2020, 04:58:52 PM »

HD-25 is Sterling Heights, I think. That's in the heart of Macomb County, which means if Biden is leading there by that much, he's likely carrying the county as a whole.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2020, 05:00:49 PM »

Trumps last stand is Pennsylvania.
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VAR
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2020, 05:03:05 PM »

2018 results:

HD-19: Stabenow +4
HD-25: Stabenow +5
HD-39: Stabenow +4
HD-45: Stabenow +2
HD-61: Stabenow +7
HD-62: Stabenow +3
HD-104: James +4
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 05:09:43 PM »

If a challenger Republican for Senate (who just lost 2 years ago) is running ahead of Trump but still losing, does that mean Trump really is toast in Michigan?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 05:14:38 PM »

Primary Community (County)

HD-19 - Livonia (Wayne County)
HD-25 - Sterling Heights-East (Warren)
HD-39 - Commerce/West Bloomfield-West (Oakland)
HD-45 - Rochester Hills (Oakland)
HD-61 - Portage (Kalamazoo)
HD-62 - Battle Creek (Calhoun)
HD-104 - Traverse City (Grand Traverse)
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Stuart98
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2020, 05:16:17 PM »

If a challenger Republican for Senate (who just lost 2 years ago) is running ahead of Trump but still losing, does that mean Trump really is toast in Michigan?
If this poll is accurate, then yes. This is much stronger than most of the state level polls have been and even those have been bearish for Trump's chances.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 05:23:49 PM »

All polls within September 14-18
MoE: about 5.6% per district

State legislature results:
HD19
Pohutsky 47%
Ptashnik 45%

Pohutsky (D) won 50.2%-49.8% in 2018.

HD25
Shannon (D) 48%
Smith (R) 41%

Shannon (D) won 54.0%-46.0% in 2018.

HD39
Julia Pulver (D) 47%
Berman (R) 43%
Anthony Croff (L) 2%

Berman (R) won 54.1%-42.3% in 2018.

HD45
Barb Anness (D) 45%
Mark Tisdell (R) 44%

Webber (R) won 55.1%-44.9% in 2018.

HD61
Christine Morris (D) 45%
Branwyn Haltom (R) 41%

Iden (R) won 54.1%-42.3% in 2018.

HD62
Jim Haadsma (D) 52%
Dave Morgan (R) 39%

Haadsma (D) won 51.4%-48.6% in 2018.

HD104
John Roth (R) 48%
Dan O'Neil (D) 40%

Inman (R) won 50.4%-49.6% in 2018.
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kph14
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 05:34:18 PM »

A bit sad that they didn't poll HD-110. I still have some hope that Biden can carry Gogebic county
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 05:47:51 PM »

So do Democrats have a shot at taking Michigan's State House?
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 10:32:14 PM »

HD-61 is the west side of Kalamazoo, which is primed and ready to flip. The R incumbent is termed out and his two re-elections were within a couple points.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2020, 12:06:10 AM »

Trump won Michigan because of the suburban vote... and he does not have it now.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2020, 12:19:35 PM »

MI House will flip. I'm calling it
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2020, 12:37:53 PM »

So do Democrats have a shot at taking Michigan's State House?

I mean only 4 seats need to flip so itís not too hard
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AGA
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2020, 01:43:17 PM »

Why does every poll of congressional or state house districts show huge swings to Biden?
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