Voter suppresion/"stealing the election" megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

I honestly wouldn't vote by mail at this point.  The Republicans are clearly trying to get all these new rules and regulations written so they can ex-post-facto invalidate votes already cast or votes of people who aren't keeping up with the ever-changing requirements for your vote to be counted.

Just vote early, in-person.  Don't let the Republicans get away with it.

The good news is that the South Carolina case indicates that Roberts and Kavanaugh aren't willing to invalidate votes already cast...although who knows about Republican hack state Supreme Courts.

I still dropped off my ballot in person although I received it in the mail but two weeks before election day Minnesota will mix in all mailed ballots with in person ones. They only keep them separate now in case someone wants to change their vote.

Don't you have to vote by mail because there's no other way?

In WA we vote by mail but we've had the system in place for years, it's pretty locked-in.  The danger is states that are new to VBM, possibly doing it for the first time, like South Carolina.  They've got a process in place, the Republicans challenge it in every possibly venue, and any court cases they win they try to use to invalidate ballots.  Since VBM is like 70-30 Biden, that's tons of Biden votes getting tossed out, not to mention votes for Jaime Harrison and other downballot candidates.

It's very obvious that this is the strategy and it's frustrating that there's nothing we can do about it.  even if the Biden campaign gives people precise instructions for how to vote, the Republicans can go to the courts and change the rules, and then anyone who doesn't follow those rules from that point on gets their ballot thrown out.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This seems to be the most appropriate thread for this.
https://twitter.com/FBI/status/1313494766387105794

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1313586500097978371

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1313588469483139072

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1313275226034237444?s=19

I don't like this. It seems to suggest that the SC will generally side with republicans in their generalized efforts to suppress the vote. And what effects will this have in other more important states?

On the other hand, it also seems to suggest that Roberts and Kavanaugh will not outright just toss ballots, which I guess is some kind of comfort for the inevitable post-election judicial battles. Disappointed in Gorsuch though, it's been known that Thomas and Alito are partisan hacks, but had hoped that Gorsuch was more sensible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1313275226034237444?s=19

I don't like this. It seems to suggest that the SC will generally side with republicans in their generalized efforts to suppress the vote. And what effects will this have in other more important states?

On the other hand, it also seems to suggest that Roberts and Kavanaugh will not outright just toss ballots, which I guess is some kind of comfort for the inevitable post-election judicial battles. Disappointed in Gorsuch though, it's been known that Thomas and Alito are partisan hacks, but had hoped that Gorsuch was more sensible.

Gorsuch's reasoning is probably that he thinks there should be next to no federal control of elections at all and have them ne entirely up to state officials. So if South Carolina officials want to require a witness signature and make it retroactive it's not the feds' business to tell them otherwise.

That might be different if the state officials are actually allowing something though especially if it's after the election.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1313586500097978371

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1313588469483139072

"Best in the West"...

Even despite successive PUB court-packing in the Western Region over recent years, 9th district still holds out for voting rights....

FF's and cautionary lesson for all y'all out there about how the Executive Branch can attempt to create "complete control" over the 3rd branch of GVT.

Still good to see that even here the naked power grabs and vote theft aren't happening  yet within District Court appeal levels.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/NBCNewYork/status/1313921048472170497

[(no subject)]

Dave from the movie "Dave" (1993) did subvert the Constitution but he had to do *something* to stop Bob Alexander's attempt to become President. And it's because of Dave's actions that the nation mourns when the real President Bill Mitchell is laid to rest in Arlington National. Because of Dave's Jobs bill, Bill Mitchell is remembered as a second FDR and not as another Richard Nixon.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those participating in this thread may find it worthy of note that Pence openly admitted in the debate that part of the Trump campaign's strategy for the election is to ask courts to throw out as many mail-in ballots as possible.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/1314171803137388544

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/1314171803137388544

Self-government is a key aspect of liberty, Mike.

[Ferguson97]

Lincoln Project puts their money where their mouth is.

I admit, I was skeptical but this rocks.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1314194575867744257

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

[BlueSwan]

Awful!

[Skill and Chance]

So far, the SCOTUS majority (Roberts and Kavanaugh) position is consistently "leave what the state decided to do in place."  With this in mind,  I expect Pennsylvania Democrats and Wisconsin Republicans to win their cases based on leaving the state law as-is.

[Gass3268]

So far, the SCOTUS majority (Roberts and Kavanaugh) position is consistently "leave what the state decided to do in place."  With this in mind,  I expect Pennsylvania Democrats and Wisconsin Republicans to win their cases based on leaving the state law as-is.

Montana seems like an exception, but it sounds like it was because they were going to mail out the ballots tomorrow.

[Skill and Chance]

So far, the SCOTUS majority (Roberts and Kavanaugh) position is consistently "leave what the state decided to do in place."  With this in mind,  I expect Pennsylvania Democrats and Wisconsin Republicans to win their cases based on leaving the state law as-is.

Montana seems like an exception, but it sounds like it was because they were going to mail out the ballots tomorrow.

No, expanding mail in voting is what the election authorities in Montana originally wanted to do.  They did it without explicit legislative approval using leeway an existing law gave.  This is fairly similar to the  PA case where the courts and statewide officials unilaterally made changes this year. 

[Gass3268]

So far, the SCOTUS majority (Roberts and Kavanaugh) position is consistently "leave what the state decided to do in place."  With this in mind,  I expect Pennsylvania Democrats and Wisconsin Republicans to win their cases based on leaving the state law as-is.

Montana seems like an exception, but it sounds like it was because they were going to mail out the ballots tomorrow.

No, expanding mail in voting is what the election authorities in Montana originally wanted to do.  They did it without explicit legislative approval using leeway an existing law gave.  This is fairly similar to the  PA case where the courts and statewide officials unilaterally made changes this year. 

Got it!

The Republican argument in PA horrible and hopefully will be rejected by the Supreme Court.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

[Skill and Chance]

For reference, since SCOTUS is leaning heavily on a "don't question the states" policy, here is a map of swing states and competitive senate seat states by partisanship of the governor and secretary of state or other institution that regulates election procedures:

Split states:

AZ: R Gov/D SoS
NH: R Gov/D SoS
NV: D Gov/R SoS


And here is a map of state supreme courts by party if elected or by partisanship of appointing governor/legislature if appointed, dark shading = strong majority, light shading = 1 seat majority:

Notes:

AZ: appointed, 7/0 R, Ducey and legislative R's packed the court in 2016
CO: appointed, 6D/1R
FL: appointed, 7R/0D, but one of the Crist appointees is clearly liberal so in practice it's 6R/1D
GA: appointed, 9/0 R, Deal and legislative R's packed the court in 2017
IA: appointed, 6R/1D
ME: appointed, 6D/1R
MI: elected, officially 4R/3D, 2 of the R's are known for being moderate, voted 4/3 in favor of the R position in a recent 2020 election case, but voted 4/3 in favor of the D position on the nonpartisan redistricting initiative back in 2018 when the court was 5R/2D (one R seat flipped in 2018)
MN: appointed, 5D/2R
NC: elected, 6D/1R
NE: appointed, 6R/1D
NH: appointed, is split 2/2 between R appointees and D appointees with the 5th seat vacant
NV: elected, court is officially nonpartisan, but analysts consider it liberal and it unanimously refused to block universal VBM when the Trump campaign appealed
OH: elected, 5R/2D, fairly moderate
PA: elected, 5D/2R, consistently supports the D position on any election issues
TX: elected, 9/0 R
WI: elected, for all practical purposes it's 4R/3D, one R is notably moderate and there was a recent 2020 election case that was decided 4/3 in favor of the D position
VA: appointed, system is complicated, but it's clear that Dems had a say in appointing 3 of the 7 justices and no say in appointing the other 4

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

Deplorable authoritarians.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

Deplorable authoritarians.

And with that, Trump keeps Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

Deplorable authoritarians.

And with that, Trump keeps Wisconsin.

Exactly nothing has changed in Wisconsin. Wisconsin always counts votes up until the polls close and nothing received afterward.

You guys are shrieking for no reason. Biden's campaign will plan around what has been the norm for years.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

Deplorable authoritarians.

And with that, Trump keeps Wisconsin.

Exactly nothing has changed in Wisconsin. Wisconsin always counts votes up until the polls close and nothing received afterward.

You guys are shrieking for no reason. Biden's campaign will plan around what has been the norm for years.

This.  Simply maintaining the rule that was already on the books does nothing to help or hurt either campaign.  If they end up overturning the PA Supreme Court on mail voting, that would be a different story.  Simply leaving the status quo in place is not a conspiracy.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1314318053883211778

Deplorable authoritarians.

And with that, Trump keeps Wisconsin.

Exactly nothing has changed in Wisconsin. Wisconsin always counts votes up until the polls close and nothing received afterward.

You guys are shrieking for no reason. Biden's campaign will plan around what has been the norm for years.

This.  Simply maintaining the rule that was already on the books does nothing to help or hurt either campaign.  If they end up overturning the PA Supreme Court on mail voting, that would be a different story.  Simply leaving the status quo in place is not a conspiracy.

Leaving the status quo in place during a global pandemic and failing to make the needed changes is--especially when voting is under attack from the top down.

Not to mention:

n a terse six-page opinion, the majority did not even consider Wisconsinites’ constitutional rights, but simply deferred to Republican legislators, who are fighting tooth and nail to throw out mail-in ballots.