Germany megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Classic example of a leading question, what counts as "Islamic" for a start?

[Yeahsayyeah]

This would include people that are persecuted for being "not islamic enough". People are either dumb or vile. News at eleven.

[Cassius]

I see that the FDP are currently seriously in danger of dropping below the threshold federally - any chance that they decide to pull the plug on the Traffic Light coalition? I assume not as that’s unlikely to help them and would (presumably) mean a snap election, but has there been any discussion about that option within the party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I see that the FDP are currently seriously in danger of dropping below the threshold federally - any chance that they decide to pull the plug on the Traffic Light coalition? I assume not as that’s unlikely to help them and would (presumably) mean a snap election, but has there been any discussion about that option within the party?

Recently there has been an open letter by 29 FDP politicians (mostly from the state and local level) who have argued in favour of just that.

So far, I don't see the coalition in any serious danger though. Also, you don't terminate coalitions because your polling numbers are bad. The media and people would say that you should simply try to govern better in that case, instead of running away. Coalitions are terminated over unsolvable conflicts. Of course, such a conflict could arise from bad polling numbers if the FDP tries again to play hardball to improve their numbers (a strategy which they already tried in the past, although it didn't seem to have much of an effect on their numbers).

[CumbrianLefty]

FDP currently polling where they are is if anything an argument *against* them pulling the plug on the ruling coalition, rather than the opposite. Turkeys rarely vote for Christmas.

(though the SNP voting down the Labour government in 1979 is one counter-example)

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP currently polling where they are is if anything an argument *against* them pulling the plug on the ruling coalition, rather than the opposite. Turkeys rarely vote for Christmas.

(though the SNP voting down the Labour government in 1979 is one counter-example)

Especially since they've already had the experience of getting booted from the Bundestag in 2013.

But in any case, they're caught between a rock and a hard place. They think they need to push for "purer" FDP policies in the government in order to improve their numbers. But this causes friction and infighting within the government which at best drags all the governing parties' (including the FDP's) numbers down. And if the leave the government now they got booted from parliament in an early election.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1721936913794273647

Germany is reexamining its refugee policy. With many cities overwhelmed by the number of migrants coming in, the government has now announced changes.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a "historic moment" after his federal government and the premiers of the 16 states agreed on a series of measures to amend Germany's refugee policy.

Benefits for refugees are more generous in Germany than in many other EU countries. Conservative politicians have described this as a "pull factor" attracting refugees to Germany, and have suggested paying out less or no more cash to new arrivals.

Currently, it takes an average of six to 18 months for an asylum application to be processed. Until now, applicants would receive higher benefits after they had been in the country for 18 months. That threshold will now be extended to 36 months. Until then, the reduced rate of €410 (about $440) per month will apply. Benefits such as food in state accommodation are offset.

After the announcement of the changes, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that this could lead to savings of €1 billion. This would "not only relieve the burden on states and municipalities," he wrote, it would also "reduce the appeal of the German welfare state."

[...]

[Storr]

November 8-10th is the 85th anniversary of Kristallnacht. Here's a DW News segment about it:

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/RihamKousa/status/1722647571552718917

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bad-schandau-syrisch-deutsche-wandergruppe-mit-fluechtlingen-verwechselt-polizei-rueckt-an-a-f58e1723-0680-4de4-bdfe-909f6b121c50

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Die Linke's parliamentary members have voted to dissolve themselves as a "Fraktion" effective from December 6th

They will remain in the Bundestag as a "group", but will lose their status as a "Fraktion" and with it, funding, staffing, and privileges due to their smaller size

So outside of the major parties, if my numbers are correct, there will be 1 member of SSW (elected 2021), 2 members of Zentrum (defected from AfD), 28 members of a rump Linke, and 10 members of BSW

[CumbrianLefty]

Was the "new" party perhaps hoping for more Linke defections than that?

[palandio]

[...]
So outside of the major parties, if my numbers are correct, there will be 1 member of SSW (elected 2021), 2 members of Zentrum (defected from AfD), 28 members of a rump Linke, and 10 members of BSW

There seem to be 5 members that were elected as AfD candidates and
- never became member of the AfD caucus, but remains a member of the party (Helferich)
- or left both caucus and party, with an intermezzo in the Zentrum that is already over (Witt)
- or left both caucus and party (Cotar, Huber, Farle [Farle left the caucus over a year ago, but the party only a couple of days ago]).

Was the "new" party perhaps hoping for more Linke defections than that?

It depends on what you mean by "more". Before the split Wagenknecht and the members relatively close to her within the Linke caucus were sometimes called the Wilde 13. The ten member that defected plus Pellmann, Perli and Birkwald. I would say that 13 would have been the maximum, because apart from that almost all others (except Ferschl) belong to two groups:
1. Bewegungslinke ("movement Left") and therefore completely opposed to Wagenknecht,
2. Eastern Reformers that in the past temporally entered a tactical alliance with Wagenknecht, but are politically quite far away from her and also feel a strong bond to "their" party (SED -> PDS -> LINKE).

[President Johnson]

Massive setback for the traffic light coalition: The Constitutional Court (Supreme Court of Germany) rules that the government can't redirect previously approved funds/loans from Covid into a climate action fund. Consequently, 60 billion euros left from the Covid recovery program are no longer available for climate policy. CDU/CSU parliamentary group issues a lawsuit and argued it was a "shadow budget" to get around the debt brake (which was temporary suspended during the pandemic).

While I personally believe the funds should be approriated again and the debt brake be debates again over this, it's technically the right decision by the court in my view.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1724785632437047352

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Federal Constitutional Court announced today that the ruling on the repeat election in Berlin will be made on December 19th 🎅

The question is whether it will be repeated in individual precincts or in six entire constituencies.


Swear to God if we have yet another winter election....

[Cassius]

The Federal Constitutional Court announced today that the ruling on the repeat election in Berlin will be made on December 19th 🎅

The question is whether it will be repeated in individual precincts or in six entire constituencies.


Swear to God if we have yet another winter election....

Babylon Berlin Season Funf.

[Estrella]

The recent debate on Ukraine feels like a return to February 2022.

In the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU has renewed its call for the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. "Ukraine will only achieve the necessary goal of restoring its territorial integrity if it can break up the trench warfare with a wide variety of weapons systems and force the Russian troops to retreat," said Florian Hahn (CSU), the defense policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, which submitted a motion to this effect.

Hahn criticized the fact that the German government - in particular the Chancellery - has nevertheless refused to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles for more than six months, while partner nations such as France, the UK and the USA have already supplied similar systems. He said: "And the Federal Chancellor is dithering and hesitating, as he has done so often in the past."

Meanwhile, the comments made by SPD politician Jörg Nürnberger caused irritation. "Please imagine we are in a children's playground," Nürnberger began his speech. "As is so often the case, there is this one child who is never really satisfied. No matter how many toys it has, it always strives for more and is jealous if it can't get its way and doesn't get what it would like to have extra," explained the SPD politician.

In the same parliamentary debate Gregor Gysi apparently decided to stick a fork in any hopes that a post-Wagenknecht Linke will be any less Putinist than the current version. He came up with a bathsxt conspiracy theory about how mediation led by Gerhard Schröder (?!) almost managed to stop the fighting, but the agreement was sabotaged by Washington that wanted the war to continue — and then he got torn a new one:

Dear Gregor Gysi, it is interesting that you are now referring to Gerhard Schröder of all people. But I must strongly disagree with you on one point. The peace talks that took place at the beginning of this war did not end in Washington. They ended in Bucha.

To be fair, we are talking about the man who said that the Skripal assassination attempt was a US false flag to sabotage Nord Stream, but this is jumping the shark even for him. I can't wait for his comrades to end up with 4.9% and 2 direct seats in 2025.

[President Johnson]

The government could slip into a serious crisis after the constitutional court ruled transferring 60 billion Euro in loans from the Covid recovery program into the climate action fund is unconstitutional and violating the rules of the debt brake.

SPD and Greens now calling to reform the debt brake and/or raise taxes on upper incomes while FDP vows to cut spending.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1727032881107632595

Germany's budget woes: A threat to the government?

Finance Minister Christian Lindner has imposed a freeze on the federal budget. This is the latest dramatic twist triggered by a bombshell ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court, which threatens all policy plans.

A matter-of-fact announcement was issued by the Finance Ministry on Monday evening: With immediate effect, a spending freeze applies to almost the entire budget for 2023, it read. This drastic step was taken due to "the need to review the overall budgetary situation for the federal budget," read a statement from the ministry.

The government is sending the message that it considers last week's dramatic landmark ruling by Germany's highest judges to have much more severe consequences than initially thought.

The Constitutional Court's verdict on November 15 was a political bombshell for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his federal government. It ruled that the government cannot reallocate €60 billion meant to fight the COVID-19 pandemic to instead address climate change.

More money, in the form of credit, was earmarked for the pandemic than turned out to be necessary.

Shortly after coming to power in late 2021, the current government led by the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in coalition with the Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) transferred the remaining allowance to a climate transformation fund. The fund was to be used to finance energy-efficient refurbishment of buildings and electromobility projects, but also for the modernization of Germany's rail network.

[...]

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

[President Johnson]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

These are subventions which are probably cherished by FDP voters though.

[President Johnson]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

These are subventions which are probably cherished by FDP voters though.

Of course, though each side has to make concessions. Scholz often did so and frequently sided with the FDP what frustrated parts of the Greens (especially their left wing).

[MaxQue]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

Any reason why the Court is obviously veering into policymaking? Packed with CDU cronies?

[Oryxslayer]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

Any reason why the Court is obviously veering into policymaking? Packed with CDU cronies?

I wouldn't ay that. The funds were set aside for COVID use by extraordinary action to deal with an extraordinary situation. And because there was a leftover surplus, the government saw it as an easy way to get money for what they wanted to do without confronting what they are having to now: FDP say no taxes, Greens say no to cuts. The court is saying that the money was earmarked in a special fashion, and therefore couldn't be used in other normal ways, at least without the appropriate special process.

[Oryxslayer]

🚨FDP to survey members on remaining in the coalition after recent events. 🚨

Such a survey is nonbinding and internal, with only the official membership allowed to respond. Since this is Germany, I don't think leaving the government (and likely forcing new elections) is the likely outcome. It can't however be counted out, especially if the vote is resounding enough that the party has to follow it's wishes.

[President Johnson]

🚨FDP to survey members on remaining in the coalition after recent events. 🚨

Such a survey is nonbinding and internal, with only the official membership allowed to respond. Since this is Germany, I don't think leaving the government (and likely forcing new elections) is the likely outcome. It can't however be counted out, especially if the vote is resounding enough that the party has to follow it's wishes.

Yeah, I don't see FDP leaving the government. They would be blamed for instability and pay the price in a snap election. However, I expect not more than 55-60% of their members to vote remain despite the party actually getting more concessions that it should be (based on the fact that SPD and Greens received around four times as many votes and Scholz often even sides with them over Greens and parts of the SPD).