Germany megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Storr]

A winning message for sure, lol:

"The far-right Alternative for Germany will push for a Brexit-style referendum on membership of the EU if it comes to power, its leader Alice Weidel said, hailing the UK’s exit from the bloc as “dead right”.

“It’s a model for Germany, that one can make a sovereign decision like that,” she said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Weidel, party leader since 2022, said an AfD government would seek to reform the EU and remove its “democratic deficit”, including by curbing the powers of the European Commission, an “unelected executive”.

“But if a reform isn’t possible, if we fail to rebuild the sovereignty of the EU member states, we should let the people decide, just as Britain did,” she said. “And we could have a referendum on ‘Dexit’ — a German exit from the EU.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1749324622909067751?s=20

[President Johnson]

With regard to AfD, even Marine LePen distances herself now and opposed mass deportations of legal immigrants or citizens of non-German descent. She apparently even threatens to break up the faction in the EU parliament over this. It's already stunning that Meloni voiced criticism of AfD and specifically dennounced their views on Russia.

If LePen criticzes others for immigration policy, it tells you all you need to know how insane AfD is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's this old saying... when the public discourse is about immigration, the AfD wins. When the discourse is about the AfD, the AfD loses.

[jaichind]

No real recovery in German consumer confidence since its collapse from putting sanctions on Russia

[President Johnson]

There's this old saying... when the public discourse is about immigration, the AfD wins. When the discourse is about the AfD, the AfD loses.

I'm conflicted on that question.

Some argue the democratic parties should pay less attention to "AfD issues" like immigration because the political discourse around these only increases support for them. There's some truth to that, but on the other hand, people are apparently concerned about that. If SPD, Greens, FDP and CDU/CSU just ignore them, AfD and the media will say the governing parties and democratic opposition blatently refuse to address issues important to voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A++ creativity. Props to whoever came up with that idea.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The budget fiasco has been a catastrophe for the favorability ratings of the governing parties, with all of them taking a massive hit.

Notably, the SPD now has a negative unfavorability rating for the first time since 2005. This government is cooked.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The budget fiasco has been a catastrophe for the favorability ratings of the governing parties, with all of them taking a massive hit.

Notably, the SPD now has a negative unfavorability rating for the first time since 2005. This government is cooked.

Union's unbroken streak of having favorable ratings for almost a full quarter century is really quite something.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD drops below 20% in first poll, losing three points compared to previous week:

Verian for Focus:
CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19%
SPD 16%
Greens 16%
FDP 4%
Left 4%
BSW 3%

[jaichind]

It seems there are 3 roughly equal blocs

Ruling bloc: SPD-Greens-FDP            32
Mainstream opposition: CDU/CSU      29
Anti-system opposition: AfD+BSW     31

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1751291322244190416

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looking at the positions that have come out of the BSW party convention yesterday, i think it's kind of funny how people keep thinking this is some kind of "anti-immigration party". They've been very elusive and contradictory on the subject, and mostly focus on things like refugees/asylum seekers, unless we're doing that annoying thing where any all forms of migration are collapsed into a simplistic black-and-white dichotomy of "Open Borders" vs. "Tough on Immigration^TM".

BSW does not fundamentally reject the right of asylum, it does not reject the idea of taking refugees in principle. It is completely silent on the topic of work-based immigration, family reunification, or students staying in Germany after graduation.

The Wagenknecht party wants asylum procedures at the EU's external borders and in third countries. “It must no longer be left to criminal smuggling networks to decide who gets access to the EU,” the program says. The EU must “fundamentally” reform its refugee and migration policy, according to the demand. The BSW warns that “in France and other countries, and to a somewhat lesser extent in Germany,” “Islamist-influenced parallel societies have emerged in recent years.”

I mean, this is basically the traffic light government's policy? The Scholz government tightened asylum laws, erected border checks, reduced the flow of refugees, voted in favor of the new Common European Asylum System, made it easier to deport criminals and people who have been denied their asylum claim, and have given the police new powers to surveil suspected extremists. They are also introducing a new payment card system to crack down on asylum seekers sending cash back to their home countries. And both immigration acts passed by SPD-led governments with Green participation in 2005 and 2023 specifically provide resources and money for integration, restrict low-skill/low-wage immigration, and privilege people who speak the language and take integration courses. The new citizenship law also introduces a large raft of new requirements for integration as well.

Regarding "regular immigration", I cannot for my life find any comments by Wagenknecht, Lafontaine, or BSW on the new immigration act passed in November 2023, the new citizenship law passed in January, or going further back, the Skilled Workers Act of 2019 or the Immigration Act of 2005.

It's funny how these online narratives collide so much with reality. In Sweden and Germany, it was the political right who massively increased immigration, defunded the police, and gutted the military, while on the other hand, it was the Social Democrats and Greens in both countries who more often than not implemented controlled immigration systems (in Germany, with the Immigration Act of 2005), cracked down on huge refugee and asylum seeker waves (in Sweden, both in 1991 and 2016-2021, and in Germany, in 1992 with the Asylum Compromise and now in 2023-2024), and opposed cuts to military spending and conscription and also began rebuilding the armed forces (Sweden after 2014, Germany from 2021).

So I don't really understand how BSW is "anti-immigration" unless we also consider the SPD and Greens as "anti-immigration", which is just a stupid claim. If BSW starts agitating against the new immigration laws or thinks that we should reduce the number of foreigners in Germany, then yes, that would be truly "anti-immigration". Right now, their state positions are actually very mainstream and not at all different from the positions and actions of the SPD and Greens.

[CumbrianLefty]

Again, lots off politics these days is about vibes.

And this is maybe more so when it comes to immigration.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looking at the positions that have come out of the BSW party convention yesterday, i think it's kind of funny how people keep thinking this is some kind of "anti-immigration party". They've been very elusive and contradictory on the subject, and mostly focus on things like refugees/asylum seekers, unless we're doing that annoying thing where any all forms of migration are collapsed into a simplistic black-and-white dichotomy of "Open Borders" vs. "Tough on Immigration^TM".

BSW does not fundamentally reject the right of asylum, it does not reject the idea of taking refugees in principle. It is completely silent on the topic of work-based immigration, family reunification, or students staying in Germany after graduation.

The Wagenknecht party wants asylum procedures at the EU's external borders and in third countries. “It must no longer be left to criminal smuggling networks to decide who gets access to the EU,” the program says. The EU must “fundamentally” reform its refugee and migration policy, according to the demand. The BSW warns that “in France and other countries, and to a somewhat lesser extent in Germany,” “Islamist-influenced parallel societies have emerged in recent years.”

I mean, this is basically the traffic light government's policy? The Scholz government tightened asylum laws, erected border checks, reduced the flow of refugees, voted in favor of the new Common European Asylum System, made it easier to deport criminals and people who have been denied their asylum claim, and have given the police new powers to surveil suspected extremists. They are also introducing a new payment card system to crack down on asylum seekers sending cash back to their home countries. And both immigration acts passed by SPD-led governments with Green participation in 2005 and 2023 specifically provide resources and money for integration, restrict low-skill/low-wage immigration, and privilege people who speak the language and take integration courses. The new citizenship law also introduces a large raft of new requirements for integration as well.

Regarding "regular immigration", I cannot for my life find any comments by Wagenknecht, Lafontaine, or BSW on the new immigration act passed in November 2023, the new citizenship law passed in January, or going further back, the Skilled Workers Act of 2019 or the Immigration Act of 2005.

It's funny how these online narratives collide so much with reality. In Sweden and Germany, it was the political right who massively increased immigration, defunded the police, and gutted the military, while on the other hand, it was the Social Democrats and Greens in both countries who more often than not implemented controlled immigration systems (in Germany, with the Immigration Act of 2005), cracked down on huge refugee and asylum seeker waves (in Sweden, both in 1991 and 2016-2021, and in Germany, in 1992 with the Asylum Compromise and now in 2023-2024), and opposed cuts to military spending and conscription and also began rebuilding the armed forces (Sweden after 2014, Germany from 2021).

So I don't really understand how BSW is "anti-immigration" unless we also consider the SPD and Greens as "anti-immigration", which is just a stupid claim. If BSW starts agitating against the new immigration laws or thinks that we should reduce the number of foreigners in Germany, then yes, that would be truly "anti-immigration". Right now, their state positions are actually very mainstream and not at all different from the positions and actions of the SPD and Greens.

Well, I suppose it's possible that Greens and BSW have de facto similar positions on immigration.

That is the Greens-in-government and the BSW-in-opposition.

I guess the BSW-in-opposition would be more restrictive on the issue than the Greens-in-opposition.


Other than that I read that the BSW loves Putin and wants to investigate COVID restrictions which essentially caters to the AfD base.

[President Johnson]

The budget fiasco has been a catastrophe for the favorability ratings of the governing parties, with all of them taking a massive hit.

Notably, the SPD now has a negative unfavorability rating for the first time since 2005. This government is cooked.

I don't think it's necessarily cooked for done for 2025. There's a lot of time to turn things around and as several elections in the last decade have shown, incumbency is a massive factor and often starts kicking in just months or weeks before the election.

Although CDU/CSU are nowhere near the Merkel years, it's still absolutely mindboggling so many people have goldfish memories. A lot of issues the current government has to deal with on top of multiple crisis are reforms that CDU/CSU just left untouched for 16 straight years. That worked in a time of economic prosperity that was largely the product of reforms during the Red-Green years or basically the work of SPD in the first grand coalition under Merkel. The Union should have no business returning to power for the remainder of this decade at least.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There's this old saying... when the public discourse is about immigration, the AfD wins. When the discourse is about the AfD, the AfD loses.

I'm conflicted on that question.

Some argue the democratic parties should pay less attention to "AfD issues" like immigration because the political discourse around these only increases support for them. There's some truth to that, but on the other hand, people are apparently concerned about that. If SPD, Greens, FDP and CDU/CSU just ignore them, AfD and the media will say the governing parties and democratic opposition blatently refuse to address issues important to voters.

I find the whole idea of not addressing issues because you dont want to legitimize a fringe party as being completely ridiculous. No, what legitimizes fringe parties and politicians is the fact that the mainstream is not addressing issues the public wants addresses which increases the appeal of such fringe parties.

Like AFD's rise is directly the fault of mainstream parties calling anyone who opposed the refugee policy of the Merkel years as racist bigots .

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's this old saying... when the public discourse is about immigration, the AfD wins. When the discourse is about the AfD, the AfD loses.

I'm conflicted on that question.

Some argue the democratic parties should pay less attention to "AfD issues" like immigration because the political discourse around these only increases support for them. There's some truth to that, but on the other hand, people are apparently concerned about that. If SPD, Greens, FDP and CDU/CSU just ignore them, AfD and the media will say the governing parties and democratic opposition blatently refuse to address issues important to voters.

I find the whole idea of not addressing issues because you dont want to legitimize a fringe party as being completely ridiculous. No, what legitimizes fringe parties and politicians is the fact that the mainstream is not addressing issues the public wants addresses which increases the appeal of such fringe parties.

Like AFD's rise is directly the fault of mainstream parties calling anyone who opposed the refugee policy of the Merkel years as racist bigots .

That's a pretty simplified analysis ignoring any other factors as well as the fact that right-wing populist and right-wing extremist movements have been on the rise worldwide in recent years, from Poland to Italy to the U.S. to Brazil to arguably India. Germany is in fact the last one to the party. So it's questionable to what extent domestic policies played a role in any significant manner. "It's Merkel's fault" is merely repeating the AfD's own partyline.

A common theory in political science, I think, is that in the early 21st century political camps don't divide along the old traditional "right"/"left" lines any longer, but rather along the line between the (self-perceived) winners and losers of globalization (or as a Trumpist would say, "globalism").

This is why the gradual rise of both the AfD and the Greens (the latter of which with a temporary? dent in their polling right now) in the past five to ten years had been attributed to that very same phenomenon: The tradtional right/left parties of CDU and SPD being replaced by the more clear-cut pro- or anti-globalization AfD and Greens.

In addition, the rise of social media as a tool for political communication (and to signifcant extent, misinformation) served as facilitator for the rise of more extremist forces, both in Germany and abroad.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD drops below 20% in first poll, losing three points compared to previous week:

Verian for Focus:
CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19%
SPD 16%
Greens 16%
FDP 4%
Left 4%
BSW 3%

Forsa follows suit btw, making it the second pollster with the AfD under 20% now.


CDU/CSU 32%
AfD 19%
SPD 15%
Greens 14%
FDP 3%
Left 3%
BSW 3%
Free Voters 3%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Doing research on Helmut Kohl's last two terms in office (because what else do you do in your spare time), found this interesting Der Spiegel article published on December 26th, 1993:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ins-niemandsland-a-f02cd361-0002-0001-0000-000013683535

Into No Man's Land

This year the Union parties have become weaker than ever before. From 50.2 percent in Adenauer's election victory in 1957, Kohl reduced it to 35 percent.

The SPD also only got a maximum of 39 percent in the Emnid surveys in 1993. It is not certain whether it will remain the strongest party and win the federal election in October 1994. Both parties were usually too close to each other.

It is also uncertain whether, in addition to the SPD and CDU/CSU, only the FDP and Alliance 90/Greens will enter the next Bundestag.

The Republicans were more often at 3 or 4 percent than at 5 or 6 percent, but they have many sympathizers: 11 percent of German citizens would "welcome" their move to Bonn, and even 20 percent "understand right-wing radical tendencies." The success or failure of the Republicans is decided in the West; they are more popular there than in the East.

Despite its successes in Brandenburg, the PDS's chances are far lower. It had more supporters at the end of 1993 than in the 1990 federal election, but needs almost twice as many to reach 5 percent nationwide. The PDS can only hope for three direct mandates. In 1990 Gysi won the only one in East Berlin.

In almost every respect, the distance of many German citizens from Bonn politics and the parties increased at the end of 1992/beginning of 1993 and then remained pretty much the same throughout the year.

The dissatisfaction is greater than before. The two popular parties have lost a lot of people, and neither will probably get it back to 40 percent. In 1993, consistent majorities were dissatisfied with the government, but also with the opposition. Most expect change, but not change.

According to the prevailing opinion, the problems have increased and the ability of the parties to solve them has decreased. 45 percent said “no one” was able to do it.

Trust in the parties (from 51 to 23 percent) and even satisfaction with the political system (from 74 to 28 percent) have fallen to the lowest numbers that Emnid has ever measured.

Many Germans no longer switch from one party to another, but instead migrate to the no man's land of non-voters: the parties can no longer count on almost a quarter of German citizens.

The 1990s were a time of intense cynicism and pessimism all over, it seems. The SPD led the CDU by 10 percentage points, Scharping was seen positively by 57% of Germans and had a running start out of the gate, a majority of Germans disapproved of Kohl and predicted a change of government at the next election. Article predicts that neither the SPD nor CDU could crack 40% for the forseeable future.

And we all know how that turned out!

[Storr]

"AfD loses run-off in first vote since mass-deportation story"

"Christian Herrgott of the conservative CDU beat out far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate Uwe Thrum in a regional run-off election in the eastern German state of Thuringia on Sunday.

The vote was viewed by political observers as a barometer for the AfD's popularity at a time when damaging headlines may have dented its alarming nationwide momentum.

The vote was the first since Correctiv, an investigative journalism outfit, published a report outlining a November meeting in which AfD politicians and far-right extremists — including Austrian neo-Nazi Martin Sellner of the Identitarian Movement — discussed plans for the mass deportation of foreigners and unassimilated German citizens should they come to power.

AfD candidate Thrum had led the race safely before the Correctiv report was released — he dominated the general election two weeks ago with 45.7% of the vote compared to Herrgott's 33.3% — but only gained 47.6% of the vote to Herrgott's 52.4% on Sunday."

[Middle-aged Europe]

A recording from December has Björn Höcke (AfD) saying that he wants to deport 20%-30% of the German population, arguing the country could easily handle it provided that ethnic German women would increase their birthrates in the aftermath.

20%-30% is more or less the share of all residents with some sort of migrant background (30% would actually exceed the total number of people falling in that category a bit - the Federal Statistical Office defines "migrant background" as someone with at least one parent who at one point in their lives was not a German citizen).

Technically, that would include the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, the co-chairman of the Green Party, the general secretary of the FDP, the president of the German Trade Union Confederation, and, well, Sahra Wagenknecht.

https://www.derwesten.de/politik/afd-hoecke-remigration-deportation-id300814756.html

[Estrella]

A video from December has Björn Höcke (AfD) saying that he wants to deport 20%-30% of the German population, arguing the country could easily handle it provided that ethnic German women would increase their birthrates in the aftermath.

20%-30% is more or less the share of all residents with some sort of migrant background (30% would actually exceed the total number of people falling in that category a bit - the Federal Statistical Office defines "migrant background" as someone with at least one parent who at one point in their lives was not a German citizen).

Technically, that would include the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, the co-chairman of the Green Party, the general secretary of the FDP, the president of the German Trade Union Confederation, and, well, Sahra Wagenknecht.

https://www.derwesten.de/politik/afd-hoecke-remigration-deportation-id300814756.html

Also presumably including however many million Russlanddeutsche and the few people still alive who grew up in the Sudetenland and east of the Oder–Neisse.

[Lord Halifax]

A video from December has Björn Höcke (AfD) saying that he wants to deport 20%-30% of the German population, arguing the country could easily handle it provided that ethnic German women would increase their birthrates in the aftermath.

20%-30% is more or less the share of all residents with some sort of migrant background (30% would actually exceed the total number of people falling in that category a bit - the Federal Statistical Office defines "migrant background" as someone with at least one parent who at one point in their lives was not a German citizen).

Technically, that would include the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, the co-chairman of the Green Party, the general secretary of the FDP, the president of the German Trade Union Confederation, and, well, Sahra Wagenknecht.

https://www.derwesten.de/politik/afd-hoecke-remigration-deportation-id300814756.html

Also presumably including however many million Russlanddeutsche and the few people still alive who grew up in the Sudetenland and east of the Oder–Neisse.

the ones growing up east of the Oder-Neisse were born as German citizens

[Estrella]

A video from December has Björn Höcke (AfD) saying that he wants to deport 20%-30% of the German population, arguing the country could easily handle it provided that ethnic German women would increase their birthrates in the aftermath.

20%-30% is more or less the share of all residents with some sort of migrant background (30% would actually exceed the total number of people falling in that category a bit - the Federal Statistical Office defines "migrant background" as someone with at least one parent who at one point in their lives was not a German citizen).

Technically, that would include the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, the co-chairman of the Green Party, the general secretary of the FDP, the president of the German Trade Union Confederation, and, well, Sahra Wagenknecht.

https://www.derwesten.de/politik/afd-hoecke-remigration-deportation-id300814756.html

Also presumably including however many million Russlanddeutsche and the few people still alive who grew up in the Sudetenland and east of the Oder–Neisse.

the ones growing up east of the Oder-Neisse were born as German citizens

this is what happens when you post at four in the morning

[Middle-aged Europe]

Technically, that would include the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, the co-chairman of the Green Party, the general secretary of the FDP, the president of the German Trade Union Confederation, and, well, Sahra Wagenknecht.

Fun fact though: With the exception of the agriculture minister, all these aforementioned people are of Iranian descent. Iranians are the backbone who are running this country. You can in part thank Ayatollah Khomeini for that.

(A friend of mine is a German-Iranian working at Berlin's state department of transportation.)