Germany megathread

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Bit of a random question but what legislative accomplishments were there during Schröder's first term? I cannot find much information even if I search in German.

Most articles focus Schröder's reaction to externally-driven events such as Kosovo, Iraq, and the 2002 floods.

Basically all the legislative initiatives that I managed to find seem to be really basic and underwhelming stuff such as a minor tax reform in 2000, a slight loosening of criteria for citizenship and naturalization, same-sex civil unions, and agreeing to phase out nuclear power.

Is that really it? Is that really all that was accomplished legislatively? Was the infighting over the agenda really so bad to cause this level of gridlock for his first four years?

And was Iraq and the floods really enough to save the SPD in 2002, or were there other underlying factors and strengths of the SPD? I would assume that voters would just be so sick of the Red-Greens that they'd go with Stoiber anyways.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Schroeder managed a significant turnaround in popularity come 2001-02.

Exactly why is, as you say, not quite as clear.

I do see that unemployment began to fall quite rapidly from late-1999 to mid-2001 (from above 9% to about 7.5%), which can probably explain the sentiment that things were turning the corner and his policies were working, but from late summer 2001 it began to rocket back upwards due to the early-2000s recession and in late-2002 was even worse than it was in late-1998 (9.5% vs. 9%), and that was a major weakness of the SPD-Greens campaign in 2002.

I also know that Schröder himself was personally very popular and seen as an "everyman" and "strong, decisive leader". But still, I'm surprised that they didn't lose 2002 even given the floods and Iraq. But perhaps I'm seriously underestimating the intense opposition to the Iraq War, which would make sense given Germany's history and that many elderly voters still remembered....everything that happend back then, and were still around to vote.

Perhaps there was also a "he's only had 4 years, he needs more time" kind of mentality after 16 years of CDU-FDP, just like people were forgiving of Obama in 2012 and were turned off by Stoiber the same way Americans were turned off by Romney. Idk.

*snip*

•   I wouldn’t call the tax reform of 2000 minor. In fact, it lowered the lowest tax bracket from 25.9% to 15% and the highest marginal tax rate from 53% to 42% while increasing tax allowances and cut taxes for corporations from 40%/30% to 25%.
•   A tax on electricity was passed in 1999.
•   Red-Green passed a massive social security reform called the Altersvermögensgesetz, which – facing an aging population – hoped to stabilize our retirement system through limits on future public social security spending and by encouraging private capital-based retirement insurance (e.g. Riester-Rente, which is modelled after 401(k), but doesn’t work half as well).
•   The government managed a swift transition from the D-Mark to the Euro.
•   They significantly expanded the system of deposit bottles.
•   They passed the Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (EEG), guaranteeing fixed prices for everyone producing renewable energy (up to 50ct per kWh), which sparked private investment in renewable energies and made Germany the world leader in solar polar. In fact, the EEG might have been the biggest boost for solar power ever and the reason why it has become so cheap over the last two decades. On the other hand, the EEG has significantly increased the cost for electricity in Germany with customers now paying more than 30ct per kWh.

The Iraq War and the floods of 2002 were certainly the most significant reasons for Schröder’s reelection; the donation scandal of the CDU and Stoiber being a rather weak candidate certainly helped as well.

In addition to the accomplishments during his second term, Schröder has quite an impressive legacy. If not for his extremely stupid decision to call for snap elections in 2005, he might very well have won a third term, governing until 2010. Overall, I consider him the most underrated chancellor in German history.

Hmm, interesting, thank you for sharing. And you're right, in late-2005 unemployment was at 11% but by late-2006 it had fallen rapidly for one year and was approaching 9% very quickly. Perhaps he could have hung on for a third term if he had just waited.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Didn't the CDU get themselves into a real mess over "flat taxes" during that campaign?

Yes, Merkel's shadow finance minister Paul Kirchhof had started a debate on flat taxes, but it didn't make it into the official campaign platform. Generally, the CDU was very conservative in the early 2000s.

If the CDU has gone through various phases of being very conservative, somewhat conservative/mixed, and centrist throughout its history, what time periods would you say those were?

E.g. was the CDU of the 1960s significantly different than the party of the 1950s or 1970s? When did it turn from ordoliberalism to embracing more neoliberal economics? etc.

(obviously I understand that this an oversimplification, but as an American in Sweden I still don't really grasp Christian democracy in Germany that well)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looks like the SPD will introduce a proposal to raise the minimum wage to 12€/hour from October 1st, based on a draft law seen.

The minimum wage is currently 9.62€ per hour and will auto-adjust to 10.45€ per hour on July 1st. The auto-adjust will continue going forward, but first there will be a 15 month pause until January 2024

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So the Traffic Light honeymoon is over. 57% of Germans disapprove of the government's performance against 38% approval, which is a major turnaround from December's numbers of 46% approve/37% disapprove.

Scholz's approvals have collapsed to just 43% approve/51% disapprove. Lindner and Habeck are also in negative territory. Baerbock, interestingly, has gained, but still a majority disapprove.

53% of FDP voters disapprove, while only 4% approve. Even amongst SPD and Green voters, approval is just over 2/3 each.

The CDU is now back ahead of the SPD in polling averages:



So what's the cause of this?

Well, basically everything: gasoline and heating gas prices are through the roof, there is ever-increasing frustration with the COVID restrictions situation, inflation is hurting, SPD infighting about Russia, the Greens are slashing funding for eco-friendly housing and suffered a defeat on nuclear being considered "green", there is total paralysis about a vaccine mandate (which a majority of Germans support), etc.

But one of the biggest issues is that there simply seems to be a total lack of leadership, especially from Scholz himself. He has been more or less totally absent for the past month, it seems. Even if he is working like a dog behind the scenes, he needs to occasionally show some leadership publicly and also corral his own party.

Furthermore, there are very few accomplishments to speak of. What few there are, are either still in the draft stage (12 Euro minimum wage, 11 billion in tax breaks and COVID aid, abortion access, 2% of the budget for wind power, etc.) or are non-actions (not raising taxes). Otherwise just....nothing is happening. Total stagnation in the face of multiple crises, it seems.

Of course, while the CDU/CSU are up, Merz's favorabilities are still quite negative: only 37% approve of him (can't seem to find any disapproval numbers other than a vague "majority disapproves").


As an SPD member, I have to agree. It's been 5 months and nothing meaningful has happened. If anything, things have gotten worse as more COVID restrictions came into effect in October despite 70%+ vaccination rates and there seems to be no end to this. And that moron Drosten wants to consider lifting restrictions only after Easter (!), despite hospitalizations falling, while the government is debating loosening restrictions later this month. It just never ends and the communication has been absolutely atrocious.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

^^ You're right about most things, although I somewhat doubt that the Corona restrictions thing has anything to do with it. The same poll you cite shows that 44% consider current restrictions "appropriate" and for 22% they are even "not going far enough", meaning 66% of the population essentially opposes loosening them at this point. That's less support than a month ago, but still a pretty definitive majority.

True, but i think it's the combination of both lack of a decision on mandatory vaccination plus the restrictions.

If they would make up their mind and mandate it, then the restrictions will end sooner rather than later. But without any decision, there will always be that 20-25% who will basically never get vaccinated voluntarily, hence they will keep spreading it and the pandemic will just keep going.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The bill to raise the minimum wage to 12 Euros an hour from October 1st has passed the Bundestag! 🎉

The CDU and AfD abstained in the final vote.


Thank you SPD! Thank you SCHOLZ!


The €100 billion package for the Bundeswehr to purchase modern equipment also passed today

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Over the past two days, the German Bundesrat (upper house) approved a large batch of measures that were previously passed by the Bundestag (lower house), including:

- a 1-year extension of the suspension of penalties for jobseekers under Hartz IV
- the increase in pensions, 5.35% in the West and by 6.12% in the East
- the increase in the minimum wage to 12 Euros per hour from October 1st
- the COVID bonus to caregivers in hospitals and other care facilities during the pandemic
- the 30 billion Euro relief package to help cushion the effects of inflation & energy costs

The additional money is planned, for example, to purchase modern F-35 fighter jets, new corvettes for the Navy and successors to the Marder infantry fighting vehicle and the Fuchs troop transporter. But it is also about equipment such as night vision devices and radios.Some armament projects have already been initiated: These include the planned purchase of F-35 stealth aircraft and the procurement of 60 CH-47F heavy transport helicopters for the air transport of soldiers and material.

the 100 billion EUR package will be funded with debt, and thus needed a 2/3 majority to amend the Constitution to allow a special package to be passed and violate the debt brake law. The SPD, CDU, FDP, and Greens all voted in favor in the Bundesrat, while four state delegations that have the Left Party in government (Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Bremen and Thuringen) abstained on the vote

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The German Bundestag will vote tomorrow on repealing Paragraph Section 219a of the criminal code, which outlaws the advertisement of abortion services and restricts what kinds of information doctors can provide on the subject.

The repeal is expected to easily pass

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The German Bundestag will vote tomorrow on repealing Paragraph Section 219a of the criminal code, which outlaws the advertisement of abortion services and restricts what kinds of information doctors can provide on the subject.

The repeal is expected to easily pass

As expected, the repeal sailed through this morning with SPD, Greens, FDP, and Die Linke voting in favor, AfD and CDU against

Also i missed this yesterday the Traffic Light coalition + Die Linke voted to expand BAföG (student loans + grants) eligibility and increase payments too, nice 👍

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So the SPD is planning a new relief packet; per a draft paper, here are the proposals:

- the 9 Euro nationwide ticket will instead become a 49 Euro nationwide ticket, with the costs split 50/50 between the federal and state governments
- there will be direct payments to lower- and middle-income households to help cover energy costs, instead of the universal payment from the second package
- housing allowances and energy supports for those receiving state assistance shall also be adjusted upwards
- the gas levy that was recently implemented will be reformed to prevent free-riding from profitable energy firms
- financial supports for utility companies that are struggling are also being discussed
- there will be eviction/Inkasso protections for households who are struggling to pay ancillary costs that are included in rent payments
- a two-year suspension of the scheduled price increase in CO2 taxes
- a temporary extension of the life of nuclear power plants, but a life-time extension is ruled out

There is also a proposal for a targeted windfall profits tax on firms that profit from the spike in energy prices, but it's questionable whether the FDP will approve such a measure.

The SPD, FDP, and Greens will have a cabinet-level meeting on Wednesday and Thursday at Meseberg in Brandenburg to hash this out

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not news, just something I found during one of my "research politics and history while pretending to work from home" days.

How 18 - 24 year olds voted in German elections from 1990 to 2021:


There are the obvious ever-present caveats about polling and sample sizes, but I think the general trend of younger voters leaning slightly to the left is indeed true also in Germany (or at least, the ones who bothered to show up to vote), if not to the same extent as in other countries.

Particularly interesting how young people liked the SPD so much under Schröder. Would be interesting to see all age groups going back as far back as possible, and of course split between West and East post-1990, but for some reason polling data in Germany is incredibly difficult to find for more than just the past few elections (e.g. table i previously created on age).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some minor things here and there:

- Niedersachsen election polling looks pretty stable thus far, with the SPD leading the CDU by 3-6 points depending on the polls. A continuation of the SPD+CDU coalition is still possible, although a SPD+Green majority is also likely. A Green+CDU coalition is possible but currently most polls show them just coming up short. But so long as neither the SPD or Greens suddenly implode, there is not much reason to expect a change. I don't really know if the SPD+CDU coalition is still desired in Niedersachsen amongst the SPD, but I assume an SPD+Green coalition is favored?

- On the same day as the Niedersachsen election (October 9th), Cottbus will have its run-off election for mayor between SPD candidate Tobias Schick and AfD candidate Lars Schieske. In the first round held on September 11th, Schick received approximately 31,8% of the vote to Schieske's 26,4%.

- Speaking of the AfD and polls, they have been gradually ticking up since May when they were at about 9-10% to 13-14% now, likely due to the cost of living crisis that is making virtually every government in Europe unpopular right now. The AfD and associated groups are planning a March to Berlin-esque event on Saturday, October 8th.

- Interestingly, German industry is using significantly less gas despite only modest declines in production:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Why is the German political class so hellbent on doing this fake balancing act between the United States and Russia? In Sweden the social democrats don't have nearly this same problem and, despite often criticizing the United States, still recognized Russia as a threat throughout the Cold War and in the current day. Why are so many German politicians so obsessed with trying to "understand" Russia's "concerns" and apologize for them? Baffling behavior.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Traffic Light coalition has passed the biggest housing allowance reform in 57 years.

Details:

- the number of households receiving the housing allowance will increase from 600,000 households to 2 million
- the allowances for heating and air conditioning will permanently increase from 180 EUR per month to 370 EUR per month
- a climate component is added to the housing allowance to cover the costs for new insulation and eco-friendly systems
- the application process will be streamlined and will be made easier and simpler; they will also introduce a simple-to-use calculator on the Ministry for Construction's website and ensure that processing times will go faster so people will get their money more quickly

The bill was passed today and will come into effect on January 1st, 2023. Another policy W for the SPD and Greens.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Also AfD's offices got raided by the Public Prosecutor today

The investigations are directed against the former party leader Jörg Meuthen and the ex-Federal Treasurer Klaus-Günther Fohrmann, as the public prosecutor announced.

From the searches, the investigators apparently hope above all to find evidence of secret agreements between the AfD and anonymously financed election campaign supporters such as the dubious "Association for the Preservation of the Rule of Law and Civil Freedom" or the Swiss PR company Goal AG. So far, the party has always claimed to have known nothing about the millions in support that its patrons organized in numerous election campaigns

According to the public prosecutor's office, searches were carried out at a total of seven locations in Berlin, Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia in the course of the investigation. Documents and data carriers were secured, which are now to be evaluated. As SPIEGEL learned from judicial circles, the search locations also included the addresses of the Ströer company in Cologne and those responsible for the association, which has since been dissolved.

Thousands of free copies of the newspapers mentioned were used by the AfD as campaign material in the Bavarian state election campaign, among other things . So far, it has been a mystery who financed the newspapers and the association. Traces lead to Switzerland and to the controversial real estate billionaire Henning Conle .

Busy day in Germany!!!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am no fan of the Greens and their anti-nuclear stance, but come on, they are not the ones who have been in power for most of the past 30 years.

It's also a huge stretch to say this is a result of the European Green Deal or whatever, which only became a thing over the past few years, when Germany still burns vast amounts of coal, gas, and oil. It was pure complacency and naïevity towards Russia, which infects all of the German political establishment.

I'm also not sure that the chemical, steel, automotive, and glass manufacturers can necessarily substitute electricity for gas. Electric arc furnace technology only became a thing just a few years ago (SSSB in Sweden produced its first "green steel" in 2019 IIRC); and even if Germany could quickly rebuild its entire steel industry on a dime (hint: you can't), it doesn't have the cheap hydroelectricity that Sweden does. Yes, Germany should have kept its nuke plants open, but it also should have diversified its sources of natural gas instead of going all-in on Russian gas.

Finally, it's also laughable to say that the current crisis will deindustrialize Germany. The recession will sharp and painful and lead to production shutdowns, yes, but after a while the situation will very likely stabilize as Europe finds new long-term gas contracts and the price shock receeds. If the 1992-1993 recession and resulting 12 year stagnation didn't deindustrialize Germany, then this won't either. Germany's economic policy has oriented itself around an industrial- and export-based economy and that isn't going to change, and Germany's apprenticeship system gives its population a strong base of hard-to-train skills that don't just show up overnight in other countries.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Looks like the states and federal government have a preliminary agreement to a nationwide 49 Euro ticket. The ticket is planned to be introduced on January 1st, 2023 and will run for two years before being reviewed.

The "preliminary" is the key word, because while the feds have agreed to put up 1.5 billion EUR per year for this, with a matching amount from the states, the states are now demanding more money for increased maintenance that is naturally expected given the increased usage, and expansion of transit options in rural areas.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I genuinely don't get this guy. I generally approve of the Traffic Light coalition agreement and the actual legislation that has passed the Bundestag. I can forgive the poor communication and infighting and long delays, as frustrating as they are. But this is such a strong case of myopic Merkelbrain: just wishing that these pesky foreign policy problems would just magically go away so you can focus on the real business of running your little kingdom in the middle of Europe and for some reason, refusing to snap out of this mentality even when it is SO OBVIOUS to everyone that you need to step up and face reality.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Scholz approves the sale of almost 25% in the Port of Hamburg and also is planning to approve the sale of a German microchip manufacturer to the Swedish subsidiary of a Chinese company.

This is, again, despite the advice of the Bundesverfassungsschutz and many, many others, including those in his own party.

Genuinely at a loss...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Now the CDU turns its ire to the proposed citizenship modernization law proposed by the Traffic Light Coalition.

The government wants to reduce the number of years of permanent residency required to qualify for citizenship from 8 years to 5 years. They also want to allow children born to permanent residents to receive citizenship upon birth, and allow dual citizenship up to the third generation (currently, only EU citizens and people from a handful of other countries are allowed to have dual citizenship).

The CDU is saying that this "cheapens" the German passport and reduces the incentives to integrate. This is despite the fact that the citizenship and language tests will still remain, which just shows the pre-2005 cheap populism that Merz is trying to mimic again.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

BTW the Bundestag and Bundesrat have both approved the compromise solution to the Bürgergeld reform just now, so it will come into effect on January 1st.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

As usual the debate is polarized between "There is no problem at all, what are you talking about, what about right-wing violence?" on one hand and "It's just in the DNA of the K*nacken to behave like this" on the other.

But yeah, I don't really get the fetishization of Berlin, and specifically Neukölln and Kreuzberg. I live directly on Sonnenallee and stepped outside for a few minutes at midnight, then went right back inside once I saw that the fireworks were being shot horizontally and intentionally into balconies and into traffic.

Whether it's the young white lefty-left radicals rioting every May 1st, or young Arab+Turkish men on New Years, widespread anti-social behavior, garbage and graffiti everywhere, etc. it's really disgusting that people act like this. It's like sh*tting in your own bed and then being proud of it. Can't have a nice neighborhood. Also, it must really suck to be a police officer in Berlin.

The reaction amongst most of my social circles, both at work and in the community, which spans the class divide and also German vs. foreigner, is mostly one of tiredness about both the attacks and the debate that we all know will follow the exact same lines, and then nothing meaningful will be done to fund the police and social services more or solve the fundamental problem of a youth underclass, whether it be in Neukölln or Marzahn.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Wonderful news!

Christian Lindner has been suspected of concealing a loan for his private house when he prepared a ministerial greeting* for a private bank in Karlsruhe in May 2022. Because after the meeting he had another loan from the same bank, he is now threatened with criminal proceedings for possibly benefitting personally from his position.

The corruption unit of the Berlin Public Prosecutor's Office is currently examining the lifting of Lindner's immunity as a member of parliament in order to be able to formally investigate.


*how do I properly translate "Minister-Grußworts" here? It literally translates as "ministerial greeting words" but what does that mean?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The traffic light coalition, with the support of Health Minister Lauterbach, will amend the Transfusion Law to end the discrimination against homosexual men donating blood. Changes are in effect from April 1st.