Germany megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1535687620260507648?s=20&t=a6dX5wC9G...

This poll marks the two-month divider since the SPD last lead a poll, and three if you base it off a data point that wasn't an outlier. Now yes, the YouGov numbers do appear to be an outlier in the opposite direction, but it has become abundantly clear that people are tired of Scholtz waffling on the big issues of the day - never mind its the Greens rather than the Union who actually do have clear line in regards to the Ukraine.

[Oryxslayer]

Schröder just emerged victorious before the arbitration committee.

Now's a good time to note that in the approximately 55+ National polls released since June, the SPD has been in third place in approximately 50 of them.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the German political class so hellbent on doing this fake balancing act between the United States and Russia? In Sweden the social democrats don't have nearly this same problem and, despite often criticizing the United States, still recognized Russia as a threat throughout the Cold War and in the current day. Why are so many German politicians so obsessed with trying to "understand" Russia's "concerns" and apologize for them? Baffling behavior.

Guilt over World War II

More the legacy of like 20% of your population remembering a time when they quite literally were prisoners of Moscow.

[Oryxslayer]

Hasn't Die Linke gotten more than 5% support before? Particularly with polling showing that younger Germans are more opposed to Ukraine aid I don't see how they lose all of their seats.

Yes, they have gotten more than 5% in the past. But the overall trend seems to be downwards, since loyal post-soviet voters are dying and not getting replaced. And you would think the party would be in a good position, what with having a small chunk of voters committed to one side of a wedge issue all to themselves and the SPD presently not doing so hot overall. But Linke have been stuck at or under 5% in national polls for over a year now (Union has also led polls since approx. the same period by increasing margins, but that is not really relevant). Which shows they have deep structural, electoral, and internal issues that I have elaborated on elsewhere.

[Oryxslayer]

What’s behind the recent AFD rise to ~20% nationally? I can understand a rise to say 15%, but what’s caused them to battle for 2nd place? Is there an issue they have the sole popular stance on or have their signature issues became a lot more salient?

I guess the bad economy and the CDU being too centrist.

First yes, second no - the CDU are acting like an opposition on most issues. And their significant lead over the SPD for over a year shows this. The AfD just basically have uncontested control over the minority of voters that are pro-Russia since Linke are in turmoil, so they are pulling from everyone's voter pools if said voters care about their single issue's salience.

[Oryxslayer]

In today's sitting of Thuringia's parliament, a proposal of the CDU to reduce real estate purchase excise tax ("Grunderwerbssteuer") from 6,5 to 5% got a majority thanks to the votes of the FDP and the AfD

(which also slashes a €48 million hole into the budget)

The "firewall" has got a gaping huge hole now; the CDU declined to negotiate with the minority Red-Red-Green coalition on the issue beforehand.

Shows where this is all going, at this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when"

If/when the AfD finally comes in first in one of the Eastern state elections next year, things will get interesting. Especially in case of a "negative majority", ergo AfD and Left obtaining a majority of seats. Since the CDU formally rules out a coalition with either, it could emerge into a hot mess.

Thankfully the horrible situation of Linke means the only place where they are still strong enough to make the negative majority a possibility is Thuringia. And the Thuringian situation is unique since it is not because of party strengths, but the politicians who led them, so the majority is not negative despite the 2019 results suggesting there already is such an impasse.

[Oryxslayer]

SPD and Greens won't cut social programs, FDP won't raise taxes, so we're gonna up with the one measure everyone can agree upon and that has been used before during COVID/Ukraine: suspend the debt ceiling.

The only way to get around the Union (as it requires a two thirds majority) is declaring another state of emergency for 2023 and potentially 2024. Former could be vulnerable in court again according to some scholars, because it hasn't been declared so far and the year is almost over.

What the government should do is examine all subventions, including several harmful to the environment. The treasury could easily cut out several billions here.

Any reason why the Court is obviously veering into policymaking? Packed with CDU cronies?

I wouldn't ay that. The funds were set aside for COVID use by extraordinary action to deal with an extraordinary situation. And because there was a leftover surplus, the government saw it as an easy way to get money for what they wanted to do without confronting what they are having to now: FDP say no taxes, Greens say no to cuts. The court is saying that the money was earmarked in a special fashion, and therefore couldn't be used in other normal ways, at least without the appropriate special process.

[Oryxslayer]

🚨FDP to survey members on remaining in the coalition after recent events. 🚨

Such a survey is nonbinding and internal, with only the official membership allowed to respond. Since this is Germany, I don't think leaving the government (and likely forcing new elections) is the likely outcome. It can't however be counted out, especially if the vote is resounding enough that the party has to follow it's wishes.