COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And it needs to be remembered that Beshear, whose response has garnered universal praise, technically never imposed a lockdown.

It's a lockdown. It's kind of a soft lockdown, but it's still a lockdown.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These protests have been some of the most uninspiring and eye-rolling things I have ever seen.

[Skill and Chance]

Midwest Governors Announce Partnership to Reopen Regional Economy

- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kentucky
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Ohio
- Wisconsin

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1250856108807221248?s=20

They clearly are not on the same page, since Evers just extended the shutdown to May 26th, while DeWine is trying to open up on May 1. DeWine was doing so well, and now he's just doing Trump's dirty work once again. It's simply idiotic to open up such a big state again in 2 weeks, especially when Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and nearby states, are still not doing well.

Flattening the curve is not about keeping everyone locked inside forever. It's about making sure hospitals don't get overloaded like they have in Italy or NYC, and clearly DeWine's actions have flattened the curve in Ohio. He's also putting in specific rules about how things can open, and still isn't allowing big gatherings like concerts or sports games. Everyone else will need to open back up at some point, and Ohio can show us how it's done.

I actually agree; if I were a governor I wouldn't be considering opening things back up, but it seems like DeWine's contemplating doing so in a relatively restrained and cautious manner. And it needs to be remembered that Beshear, whose response has garnered universal praise, technically never imposed a lockdown.

I am starting to think this entire controversy has been overblown.  These are state/local decisions being left to state/local officials with a set of recommendations to reference.  There's no indication Trump is scheduling a rally in Queens on May 2nd or any Dem governor is ordering a 2021 Thanksgiving parade shut down.

I am concerned that some rural areas have gotten overconfident given what went down in Albany, GA and Sioux Falls, SD and on the Navajo reservation.  But to the extent there is a policy problem it's because of slow-walking on the front end of this.   

[FrancoAgo]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Let's be real, Whitmer isn't being attacked because of her coronavirus policies (which are completely reasonable), she's being attacked because she's a rising star in the Democratic Party and she pisses off Trump.

Maybe the paleness of her skin is due to her never going outside. Stay at home is normal for her.

Dude, you know that you *can* make an argument without going after her appearance, right?

If you had seen the CNN interview you might have drawn the association between her banning of the selling of lawn care products and using boats with motors. You know how most people are not actually white, but sort of pink? She is white. It is not a healthy color.

I'm...not even sure how to respond to that.  

[Grassroots]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

[Grassroots]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

He isn't now?

[Skill and Chance]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

IDK whether halfish asymptomatic cases (showing up pretty consistently now between Italy, Iceland, the Diamond Princess and now the Theodore Roosevelt) is a good thing or a bad thing?  It would lower the fatality rate of course,  but only by about 1/2, which if true takes from perhaps 10X more dangerous than seasonal flu to perhaps 5X.  Still quite scary. The flip side is that it makes this thing extremely hard to contain.  If it was 10X more dangerous than flu but only people who already had a high fever were contagious, it could be a lot easier to contain with health screenings.

IMO you either want to hope there are 10 or 100 contagious asymptomatic cases per person who gets sick (to massively drive down the fatality rate and quickly achieve herd immunity) massively or none (so that you can control it with fever screenings).  Halfish doesn't seem to help.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Skimming through that.....it's God awful

[RI]

The stock market is exploding after hours on rumors that Gilead has basically found a cure.

[RI]

Boeing will resume airplane manufacturing in Washington next week.

[Grassroots]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Just read through the whole thing, this is extremely good looking. Very competent, and I am extremely pleased that this is a state by state plan, not a federal one.

[Grassroots]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Skimming through that.....it's God awful

How?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's not bad! The major thing I would fix is kicking the opening of large venues back to stage three rather than stage two.  

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Skimming through that.....it's God awful

How?

We don't test nearly enough to get a widescale picture of what is happening, and do we even have enough resources for every business to check every customers temp when they're entering?

[It’s so Joever]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

This is about in-line with cruise-ship data and Iceland’s data. Although I think the true asymptomatic rate is closer to 35/50%.
The Navy Ship population skews younger probably and some will develop symptoms later. Even that rate would still be very high.

[parochial boy]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

IDK whether halfish asymptomatic cases (showing up pretty consistently now between Italy, Iceland, the Diamond Princess and now the Theodore Roosevelt) is a good thing or a bad thing?  It would lower the fatality rate of course,  but only by about 1/2, which if true takes from perhaps 10X more dangerous than seasonal flu to perhaps 5X.  Still quite scary. The flip side is that it makes this thing extremely hard to contain.  If it was 10X more dangerous than flu but only people who already had a high fever were contagious, it could be a lot easier to contain with health screenings.

IMO you either want to hope there are 10 or 100 contagious asymptomatic cases per person who gets sick (to massively drive down the fatality rate and quickly achieve herd immunity) massively or none (so that you can control it with fever screenings).  Halfish doesn't seem to help.

Think it's worth pointing out that the big asymptomatic case numbers that were being reported from the Diamon Princess were at the time of testing. If you follow up from the perspective of several weeks later, then, the number of asymptomatic cases was... signficantly lower.

As much as anything, there have been 12 deaths from 712 reported cases so far. Seeing as it's pretty unlikely that there were a huge number of non-identified cases on the ship, I feel that should probably call into question some of the more optimistic assessments of what the fataility rate for Covid is.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Oh no, time to back off quarantine orders, Republican donors are bankrolling astroturf campai.... - Wait, I mean, legitimate grassroots protests against big gubmint!

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1250794945805455361

Is this supposed to suggest that every single protester was paid to protest? Really don't see how it matters if the Facebook invite was sent by Jim Bob Smith or OpenAmericaPAC, what matters is the number of participants. This "astroturf" nonsense which I recall seeing for the first time in 2006 as an Anti Soros slogan has never really made me doubt the convictions of protest participants. In 2010 HuffPo kept going on and on about how the Tea Parties were "fake" protests because political groups paid for buses to transport protesters. If they aren't literally paying protesters its dumb to claim muh fake astroturf just because a PAC made it easier for Jim Bob to get to the protest.

[It’s so Joever]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

It’s not terrible, as long as the Trump administration and State officials really enforce it. I do question testing capacity, but I do hope that will improve over the next couple of weeks dramatically.

I am glad it’s a phase-wise solution that takes into account possible re-surges and also that it is state-by-state (makes more sense for a country this large)
Overall I expected worse.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

My amazing university seems to think remdesivir is looking very promising.

[It’s so Joever]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

IDK whether halfish asymptomatic cases (showing up pretty consistently now between Italy, Iceland, the Diamond Princess and now the Theodore Roosevelt) is a good thing or a bad thing?  It would lower the fatality rate of course,  but only by about 1/2, which if true takes from perhaps 10X more dangerous than seasonal flu to perhaps 5X.  Still quite scary. The flip side is that it makes this thing extremely hard to contain.  If it was 10X more dangerous than flu but only people who already had a high fever were contagious, it could be a lot easier to contain with health screenings.

IMO you either want to hope there are 10 or 100 contagious asymptomatic cases per person who gets sick (to massively drive down the fatality rate and quickly achieve herd immunity) massively or none (so that you can control it with fever screenings).  Halfish doesn't seem to help.

Think it's worth pointing out that the big asymptomatic case numbers that were being reported from the Diamon Princess were at the time of testing. If you follow up from the perspective of several weeks later, then, the number of asymptomatic cases was... signficantly lower.

As much as anything, there have been 12 deaths from 712 reported cases so far. Seeing as it's pretty unlikely that there were a huge number of non-identified cases on the ship, I feel that should probably call into question some of the more optimistic assessments of what the fataility rate for Covid is.

That population skewed older than average which would almost certainly cause a higher mortality rate. Also it’s important to note that the patients on the cruise ship may have been exposed to higher initial viral load as compared to the general population (outside of hospitals)
Taking this into account, I still would believe the true mortality rate is around 1%.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Aaand you've just earned yourself a 24-hours mute from this thread.

[jimrtex]

Let's be real, Whitmer isn't being attacked because of her coronavirus policies (which are completely reasonable), she's being attacked because she's a rising star in the Democratic Party and she pisses off Trump.

Maybe the paleness of her skin is due to her never going outside. Stay at home is normal for her.

Dude, you know that you *can* make an argument without going after her appearance, right?

If you had seen the CNN interview you might have drawn the association between her banning of the selling of lawn care products and using boats with motors. You know how most people are not actually white, but sort of pink? She is white. It is not a healthy color.

I'm...not even sure how to respond to that.  

Check it out yourself. She does not look healthy.

See residents protest quarantine guidance in Michigan

Note that there are no Confederate battle flags, just USA flags and Liberty flags.