COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[It’s so Joever]

Washington State's latest update has only 89 new cases over 24 hours. That's down from over 600 per day at our peak.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1250573126884360193

89 cases per day is fine for reopening the economy and schools. The west coast pact should release the measures on Washington and see how things go.

After they have already announced schools are closed for the academic year?

Yes.

They should start by opening up the Eastern part of the State. It is more rural and has far fewer cases (as one would expect)

[TJ in Oregon]

Noticed something interesting about Italy's numbers.

New cases per day in Italy is going downward, but it's doing so in an interesting pattern. It's going downward like a staircase, not like a slope. I'm unsure if this pattern is due to reporting flaws as it goes downward, or if the cases are actually fluctuating while overall decreasing. Take a look for yourself:

Saturday is higher than Sunday or Monday or Tuesday for the past several weeks.

So you are saying what exactly?

This is probably caused by differences in testing and reporting on different days of the week. If people come in to the doctor more on weekdays and it takes them 1 or 2 days to get the results of a test, then we'd expect to see fewer test results come in on Sun, Mon, and Tues. I imagine there are a lot of people who feel sort of sick debating about whether or not they should go to the doctor, or perhaps there are more working/testing hours on Mon-Fri. There are all sorts of reasons why things might fluctuate depending on the day of the week.

[Grassroots]

April 15
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 6 states
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 25 states
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 4 states
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states

I'll be posting this every 3/4 days with new numbers.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/nickahamed/status/1250533940496150535

[emailking]

Why is MSNBC reporting 32,000 deaths but here and Worldometers have it 28,000? That's the biggest discrepancy I've seen yet.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Why is MSNBC reporting 32,000 deaths but here and Worldometers have it 28,000? That's the biggest discrepancy I've seen yet.

Deaths from NY retirement homes I believe, Worldometer doesn't include them as COVID deaths but NY does

[T'Chenka]

Confederate Flags <-- ? --> Michigan

On vacation, I used to see confederate battle flags in Maine of all places. It's probably from people who used to live in the south, or had family from there. I also think that flag has in some quarters shifted from a southern symbol to a conservative symbol.

My neighbour has one nailed onto the outside of his back door, visible from my apartment building's parking lot. IN CANADA.

Probably a white supremacist.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Noticed something interesting about Italy's numbers.

New cases per day in Italy is going downward, but it's doing so in an interesting pattern. It's going downward like a staircase, not like a slope. I'm unsure if this pattern is due to reporting flaws as it goes downward, or if the cases are actually fluctuating while overall decreasing. Take a look for yourself:

Saturday is higher than Sunday or Monday or Tuesday for the past several weeks.

So you are saying what exactly?

This is probably caused by differences in testing and reporting on different days of the week.

Yup, that is spot on the money.

Spain, Italy and France all have weekly rhythms in the data which I have noticed. Less results on Sunday for example.

So that the dataset needs to be smoothed quite a bit. Just look at Nick's graphs and you will see the weekly pattern.

There are some anomalies in the data.

For those of you who monitor mortality rate, the UK does not even report them correctly:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-16/uk-aged-care-home-hit-by-coronavirus-outbreak-covid19/12149024

And they don't report recoveries at all. So all of my Active Case graphs are based on 'patterning' from the results of countries that do. There are some common features of all of the curve growth and curve recession patterns.  Australia, South Korea, China and Germany have excellent data.

Italy, Spain and the UK are quite challenging datasets to model, so keep that in mind when looking at their published data.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1250604122094485504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[Badger]

Woo! Body temp is down below 101*F for the first time in over two weeks!

That's awesome! But it still sucks you've been through this much.

[Badger]

Are Rich Americans Getting $1.7 Million Stimulus Checks?

While wealthy Americans are not eligible for the comparatively measly $1,200 stimulus checks that are now being disbursed to many Americans, they are on pace to do even better. 43,000 taxpayers, who earn more than $1 million annually, are each set to receive a $1.7 million windfall, on average, thanks to a provision buried in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

[...]

“For those earning $1 million annually, a tax break buried in the recent coronavirus relief legislation is so generous that its total cost is more than total new funding for all hospitals in America and more than the total provided to all state and local governments,” said Doggett. “Someone wrongly seized on this health emergency to reward ultrarich beneficiaries, likely including the Trump family, with a tax loophole not available to middle class families. This net operating loss loophole is a loser that should be repealed.”

Disgusting. AKA business as usual for republicans

[Badger]

How stupid are Michigan Republicans?

https://twitter.com/MI_Republicans/status/1250463355468423170

Incredibly. And you didn't have to qualify it with Michigan

[T'Chenka]

How stupid are Michigan Republicans?

https://twitter.com/MI_Republicans/status/1250463355468423170

Incredibly. And you didn't have to qualify it with Michigan

These traitors blocked hospital workers and at least one ambulance from getting to the hospital to save lives.

[Badger]

A friend of mine told me that even a vaccine won't be very helpful, since the virus is likely to mutate and render such a vaccine useless. We will be socially distancing for many years to come.

This virus isn't mutating fast at all, and the fact that this virus is slowly mutating might if anything make it much easier to make a vaccine.

The Chinese government ruined the global economy for decades, and we need to put crippling sanctions on their economy yesterday.

Ignoring the obvious topic change, I don't think it will be decades. Recession didn't "ruin" our economy for long. However, I am out for blood, and I am very much looking forward to President Hawley putting the heads of China and the WHO on spikes. America First!

Damn those Chinamen for getting sick and then shipping all those products and business people to our country! Damn them all to hell!!!

[Badger]

Protesters in Michigan have Trump flags and Confederate flags. Suffice to say, this protest is really NOT about Whitmer, is it.

https://twitter.com/tburages/status/1250490683938521093

What is especially disheartening about these protests is the complete lack of will for political activism on the progressive side.  

There should be a million people marching on Washington right now demanding universal testing.  I would totally participate in this even at the risk of personal exposure.  

Why do progressives just want to curl up into a ball right now and fruitlessly hope that Trump magically transforms into a different person rather than actually doing something to stop him?

A March in Washington, whether a thousand people or a million people, would be just as idiotic and counterproductive to the public health as these morons in Lansing.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/gdinwiddie/status/1250130371242582016

This * 1000. Hell, we're already beginning to see some of it.

[wbrocks67]

These people are idiots. Downright idiots.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1250609090692362240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These people are idiots. Downright idiots.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1250609090692362240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Gah. Why.
Selling your idea as having the spreading of coronavirus as a very key compenent of your idea at the same time people are afraid of a spread of coronavirus is the kind of proposal you'd expect from a politician who has just undergone a lobotomy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1250615211439996928

[DabbingSanta]

I do believe we have reached the peak, and things will get better from here on out. Things do need to return to normal at some point (it's been a month) and I can see how this sets an uncomfortable precedent for sweeping government control of our lives. Hell, I was one of the first people to call this out. With that being said, I agree with everyone here that we need to wait at least a few more weeks. Too early and we'll end up seeing a second peak. It's a tough call and I totally understand why people are getting frustrated, but it is clear these measures are working.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1250615211439996928

In an email that one of my professors sent out to us, he advised us to ask ourselves two simple questions when considering any trip outside of the house.  

Excluding hikes and outdoor walks, is the purpose of this trip an essential (such as food or medicine)? Will staying home on this occasion negatively affect the health and well-being of yourself or anyone else with whom you live?

If the answers to these questions are "no" and "yes" respectively, then it can wait.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/USDOL/status/1250763450059497472

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Still no stimulus check.....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Still no stimulus check.....

You mentioned you're on SSDI. Has anyone claimed you as a dependent?

[emailking]

These people are idiots. Downright idiots.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1250609090692362240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

I listened to the interview. It doesn't sound like he's saying anything different than people in this thread are. I appreciate his honesty on that.