COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If there were actually a provenly effective treatment for severe symptoms in most patients, would that itself be sufficient to end the lockdowns?  It’s unlikely that any treatment is going to be effective for everyone.  How much would a drug have to reduce the fatality rate before people are comfortable returning to something close to normal?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If there were actually a provenly effective treatment for severe symptoms in most patients, would that itself be sufficient to end the lockdowns?  It’s unlikely that any treatment is going to be effective for everyone.  How much would a drug have to reduce the fatality rate before people are comfortable returning to something close to normal?

If it had a proven success rate of preventing death in an overwhelming number of cases, yeah. I imagine the virus would become seen as more of a minor menace and people would see the lockdown as the greater evil.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16 (Today): <Missing Older Cases/Deaths Added>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Δ Change: ↑10.85% | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Δ Change: ↑145.29% | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

[Dr. Arch]

I think I'm gonna be sick. Running these numbers takes its toll when days like these happen. 

[It’s so Joever]

We knew about Remdesivir for months. Even here on Atlas, posters spoke about it as early as the first few days of February. The problem is, it had to be proven effective which takes months. Even if it is proven effective (it likely will be) it will take months to mass produce. This is a great thing, don’t get me wrong, but the actual production of Remdesivir will not be enough for at least this Spring and Summer. This is good news, but don’t get your hopes up too much.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think I'm gonna be sick. Running these numbers takes its toll when days like these happen. 

I thought it went up because they started counting old deaths.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remdesivir major result today is positive from a sample of 125 severe patients in Chicago. I have a good feeling about this drug.

They need to approve it right now. There is absolutely no excuse why this is not approved yet.

[Dr. Arch]

I think I'm gonna be sick. Running these numbers takes its toll when days like these happen. 

I thought it went up because they started counting old deaths.

That seems to be the case, based on the explanation they provide on their page. We'll see what tomorrow looks like. It doesn't help to see the spike, nevertheless.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1250042805021532162

Nothing alternate about it. While there are no guarantees the United States will break up in the next two decades, if we do, it will be along these lines that are being drawn right now.

7 Midwestern governors announce their states will coordinate on reopening

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remdesivir major result today is positive from a sample of 125 severe patients in Chicago. I have a good feeling about this drug.

They need to approve it right now. There is absolutely no excuse why this is not approved yet.

Duterte pushing some sort of insufficiently tested drug in the Phillipines during a disease outbreak some years ago is just one example of the dangers of putting insufficiently tested drugs into use.
The situation in regards to coronavirus is far from bad enough to meet the extremely high threshold to make this sort of decision justified.

[gerritcole]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

No it is a poll that demonstrates how ppl FEEL they’re being affected by the pandemic. This ‘poll’ has no error bars or p score. I did not dispute that some ppl may be more affected than others, I disputed that white privilege is what caused that disparity and not pre existing health conditions/money/access to healthcare, etc

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

No it is a poll that demonstrates how ppl FEEL they’re being affected by the pandemic. This ‘poll’ has no error bars or p score. I did not dispute that some ppl may be more affected than others, I disputed that white privilege is what caused that disparity and not pre existing health conditions/money/access to healthcare, etc

What do you think caused the preexisting health conditions/money/access to healthcare, exactly?

[Grassroots]

I think I'm gonna be sick. Running these numbers takes its toll when days like these happen. 

I thought it went up because they started counting old deaths.

It is. This is a result of the rest of the states doing it. I predicted this.

[gerritcole]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

No it is a poll that demonstrates how ppl FEEL they’re being affected by the pandemic. This ‘poll’ has no error bars or p score. I did not dispute that some ppl may be more affected than others, I disputed that white privilege is what caused that disparity and not pre existing health conditions/money/access to healthcare, etc

What do you think caused the preexisting health conditions/money/access to healthcare, exactly?

Perhaps race, perhaps geographical location, or education level, or age, or other factors that aren’t coming to mind. Are you saying the root cause of all those factors Is race?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

No it is a poll that demonstrates how ppl FEEL they’re being affected by the pandemic. This ‘poll’ has no error bars or p score. I did not dispute that some ppl may be more affected than others, I disputed that white privilege is what caused that disparity and not pre existing health conditions/money/access to healthcare, etc

What do you think caused the preexisting health conditions/money/access to healthcare, exactly?

Perhaps race, perhaps geographical location, or education level, or age, or other factors that aren’t coming to mind. Are you saying the root cause of all those factors Is race?

I'm saying race contributes to a lot of them. "'The' root cause" is a matter of interpretation.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Not really - not myself, anyway. It's just data showing that non-whites are generally less well off and more affected by a crisis like this, while white people are generally better off and more able to sit back and worry about things like the national debt (which, for the record, they've been terrible at managing).

Merely acknowledging this data doesn't mean we're "inflaming" anything.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

Liberals: Look at these racial disparities that hurt Americans of racial minorities! We should do something!
Hacks: wHY aRe yoU trYiNG to sTOkE rACIal TEnsIon!!11!!111!!!

Do you think everyone is not being hurt right now?

homie the tweet you are responding to is a poll literally demonstrating that some people are being hurt more than others

(it's hard to actually draw inference without any sort of error measurements but those differences between groups are quite large either way)

No it is a poll that demonstrates how ppl FEEL they’re being affected by the pandemic. This ‘poll’ has no error bars or p score. I did not dispute that some ppl may be more affected than others, I disputed that white privilege is what caused that disparity and not pre existing health conditions/money/access to healthcare, etc

Maybe you should have made that argument first, rather than taking an opportunity to attack “the libs”

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1250901670206242818

Lol, white people privilege

lol libs using a pandemic to further inflame racial tensions

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest cumulative European case and death graphs (5-day weighted averages). 

I didn't count the ~3,800 "probable" deaths newly reported in NY, as it is unclear which day I should assign them to.  I'm also starting to feel like it's pointless trying to track France, since they have regular huge spikes in cases or deaths on different days with no apparent pattern (e.g. huge spike in deaths yesterday, cases today).  At least the averaging washes these out a little.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Glad I sufficiently triggered the right wing people...I did my job

[Xing]

The situation here in Washington State is looking a bit more optimistic. Active cases are down about 100 from yesterday, and the rate of new cases has definitely slowed down over the past few days.

[emailking]

That population skewed older than average which would almost certainly cause a higher mortality rate. Also it’s important to note that the patients on the cruise ship may have been exposed to higher initial viral load as compared to the general population (outside of hospitals)
Taking this into account, I still would believe the true mortality rate is around 1%.

What does the true mortality rate even mean? It always has qualifications attached to it.

[RI]

We knew about Remdesivir for months. Even here on Atlas, posters spoke about it as early as the first few days of February. The problem is, it had to be proven effective which takes months. Even if it is proven effective (it likely will be) it will take months to mass produce. This is a great thing, don’t get me wrong, but the actual production of Remdesivir will not be enough for at least this Spring and Summer. This is good news, but don’t get your hopes up too much.

Remdesivir is also a harsh drug to use — this study from the New England Journal of Medicine last week noted that 23% of patients in their sample suffered serious adverse effects (including multiple organ dysfunction syndrome & septic shock) and 8% had to stop using the drug because of those side effects. Also worth noting there's no control group in either the NEJM study or the more recent trial group at UofC Med. It's great if it works, but it's not a magical cure.

It would only be used in highly advanced COVID cases where death was far more of a risk than potential kidney damage from a medication.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://twitter.com/DanRather/status/1250964274622590979?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1250942114155786241