2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

Happy court day for all who celebrate.  Here's a live thread:

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694696210219552884?t=cl8Lbu0ybcQfR04zIof-CQ...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694699296384262620?t=UJQu3XFz0ShBTyqGGOrRHg...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694700020157550655?t=ULQ4kLATb0TFusf56puPUA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694702862821969966?t=Otaek28ZReCYxAZzYU3NHA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694704041048281098?t=1bpSPeQ2vuSgcbR29vtUEA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694704765194907882?t=GzEyzA4kTvs5WWJl8pw09g...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694705476527964368?t=ZNP0YooaGTZLLNPg2Efsrg...

Spicy

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1694708347982008389?t=Xrg89r3SAbHk1jChM4wbs...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694711079656653009?t=eHi2zi1QX6BJcbZkh38i0A...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694718461656871345?t=9RvbXDlmWS_JMxDGx7LbbQ...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694725303934062622?t=LUuz-mltD-dWTTgX4f58Yg...

[Nyvin]

The state's argument that the old FL-5 is non-compact is also total crap because they themselves drew the current FL-20 district which is most definitely less compact than the old FL-5.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1694713369285296598

[GALeftist]

The state's case seems pretty weaksauce. I think Judge Marsh is exactly right that the state should have sued in federal court and gotten the nondiminishment standard declared unconstitutional rather than simply coming to the conclusion that it is and deciding to ignore the Florida constitution. Sadly, of course, they cannot do that because they would obviously lose.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694749479855878590?t=iZXYL8oLmozglosxfUdAzw...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694750410978783619?t=wgXZwIQ7LBsjEJsO8nQNAA...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694750975955726712?t=HYmb1gKgyMruLiCL2JJG4g...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694752043733250161?t=9-1BDaPuVjlAFTDYlWlE3A...

I personally like this closing rebuttal by the plaintiffs,  cause it strikes at the heart of the state's attempt to have their cake and also eat it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694755365940756529?t=9Ld8JJzMJ0E7m05vGuHVGw...

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1694756336087543827?t=EVVNRIKFIv2Kp6XKqYy2_Q...

Court ruling and order could emerge very quickly, partially cause of the pretrial agreement. Obviously the state could appeal to the Florida Supreme Court. However, since most of the arguments presented today by the defense are shaky or involve hypotheticals, and how the pretrial semi-settlement seemed designed to put the defendants in this position, I would not be surprised if this is the final nail for FL05 as it is today.

[Mr.Phips]

I always think that if Adam Putnam had won that primary in 2022 over DeSantis, he likely would have just signed the legislature’s map that kept FL-05, FL-07, and FL-13 (kept St Pete with lower Pinellas) as they were from 2016-2020 and we never would have gotten to this point.

Democrats (myself included) were thrilled that a clown like DeSantis won the primary and thought that even with Gillum we couldnt possibly lose to him.  In retrospect, we should have rooted for Putnam to win that primary. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the FL-05 vs FL-20 thing is def hypocrisy; the only remotely good argument you could make there is that FL-20 is actually 50% whereas FL-05 under any reasonable config isn't.

My hope is by 2030, a Jacksonville-based Congressional seat that can be functionally black with no arm to Tallahassee will be possible, and you won't have to do an awkward warp-around district. If greater Jacksonville continues to shift left, the GOP might just want to cede a Dem vote sink there, but that isn't a given this far out.

[patzer]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee

[politicallefty]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee

It wouldn't be a black-opportunity district in accordance with the VRA. I think the old district used to stretch from Jacksonville to Orlando (and included part of Gainesville). That was a Republican gerrymander without restriction from the Florida Constitution though. I think the Democratic Congresswoman who represented that district actually tried to challenge the redistricting amendment in federal court.

[Oryxslayer]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee

It wouldn't be a black-opportunity district in accordance with the VRA. I think the old district used to stretch from Jacksonville to Orlando (and included part of Gainesville). That was a Republican gerrymander without restriction from the Florida Constitution though. I think the Democratic Congresswoman who represented that district actually tried to challenge the redistricting amendment in federal court.

This is correct.  The incumbent of that era knew she owed he position to it's incomprehensible shape that crossed so many communities,  preventing a primary challenger.



The issue at stake here is not the national VRA but the state's equivalent. Though in their attempt to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, the State tried to make the case that following the VRA was not a compelling state interest.  It's all but impossible to draw a 50% seat in North Florida going east-west. Obviously this isn't needed, between other minority groups and more crossover whites than in the deep south. The initial tentacle FL05 to Orlando though did hit said benchmarks,  which is why FL05 still mattered for the both VRA equivalents.  It was proven and legal that you could have a 50% district,  then they redrew it, but even though the seat dropped below 50% it's still performing and still an access seat. That's last decade.

This decade the GOP tried to axe FL05 as an access seat, and ran afoul of the no diminishment parts of the law. So they must make the argument that it was no longer functioning as an access seat. This either requires the district being drawn more and more uncompact and running afoul of Gingles (because the AA pop is decreasing so things must get more creative), or argue the district has stopped performing.  Obviously both don't really apply here, but that didn't stop the state lawyers from throwing them out there.

 This is why the judge (Scott appointment) kept bringing up if the state wants him to overrule the Supreme Court from last decade - something he seemingly doesn't believe he has the power to do - cause that body deemed east-west FL05 compact in regards to Gingles. And the proposed district wouldn't be significantly changing. The second point is obviously important but doesn't really apply given proven performance, and how Florida's no diminishment law protects state districts with less minority VAP than FL05 because of their proven results.  The Duval-only FL05 for example would drop BVAP to around 40% but the results would still point towards accessibility.  The Gainesville option, as alluded to here, would probably have too many non-AA democrats for them to control the primary,  but we really don't know.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1698050556063785263?t=PpDVuKZ_z-4qU8BoR3Ihkg...


In and out. They of course have the right of appeal to the state Supreme Court,  but I'm not yet convinced they'll take the case in such a reduced and indefensible position,  even with all GOP appointments.  Notice of appeals have to be filed by Monday.

[windjammer]

The judge who struck that down is a Rick Scott appointee sooooo

[Nyvin]

Even if the judges on the State Supreme Court are all Partisan R Hacks, the FLGOP still has an extremely tough case on it's hands for this.   All the plaintiffs need to prove is that the result of the new map diminished black voter's ability to elect a candidate of their choice.   The old map gave them a candidate, the new map didn't.   Simple as that.  The intention of the map drawers doesn't matter.   

Even if they go back to the pre-2016 map, the black voters in Duval still had the opportunity to elect a candidate.   It's hard to imagine a redistricting case being any easier.   

The equal protection charges the Republicans are putting forward don't seem very credible.  It seems like they're trying to do a spin off of the affirmative action case with university admissions, but that's a very apples and oranges comparison to drawing congressional districts.

If the R judges on the FLSC do find a way to strike down the ruling for FL-5, it'll definitely be a case summary with lots of clever legalise and crafty wording, that's for sure!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always think that if Adam Putnam had won that primary in 2022 over DeSantis, he likely would have just signed the legislature’s map that kept FL-05, FL-07, and FL-13 (kept St Pete with lower Pinellas) as they were from 2016-2020 and we never would have gotten to this point.

Democrats (myself included) were thrilled that a clown like DeSantis won the primary and thought that even with Gillum we couldnt possibly lose to him.  In retrospect, we should have rooted for Putnam to win that primary. 

I'm right here with you. Though I had a bad feeling about Democrats nominating Gillum in turn.

Regardless, at least we can take some solace in DeSuckass imploding on the national stage.

[Oryxslayer]

I always think that if Adam Putnam had won that primary in 2022 over DeSantis, he likely would have just signed the legislature’s map that kept FL-05, FL-07, and FL-13 (kept St Pete with lower Pinellas) as they were from 2016-2020 and we never would have gotten to this point.

Democrats (myself included) were thrilled that a clown like DeSantis won the primary and thought that even with Gillum we couldnt possibly lose to him.  In retrospect, we should have rooted for Putnam to win that primary.  

I'm right here with you. Though I had a bad feeling about Democrats nominating Gillum in turn.

Regardless, at least we can take some solace in DeSuckass imploding on the national stage.

Almost all FL dem activists/strategists I have talked with know Graham wouldn't have lost.  It was seemingly set up for her and then everything fell apart, as usual starting with something from the FLDP.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

[walleye26]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

Pending if the State Supreme Court takes the case (we'll know shortly), and then if they are realllly conservative activists and decide the ammendment passed 13 years ago is somehow unconstitutional. Cause that's what would be needed to protect the current plan, rather than just saying that FL05 as proposed is uncompact and give a overriding order for the Duval district.

[walleye26]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

Pending if the State Supreme Court takes the case (we'll know shortly), and then if they are realllly conservative activists and decide the ammendment passed 13 years ago is somehow unconstitutional. Cause that's what would be needed to protect the current plan, rather than just saying that FL05 as proposed is uncompact and give a overriding order for the Duval district.

So best case scenario for Dems is that FL Supreme Court doesn’t hear the case and agrees with this judges ruling or hears it and agrees so that Dems pick up another seat?

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

Pending if the State Supreme Court takes the case (we'll know shortly), and then if they are realllly conservative activists and decide the ammendment passed 13 years ago is somehow unconstitutional. Cause that's what would be needed to protect the current plan, rather than just saying that FL05 as proposed is uncompact and give a overriding order for the Duval district.

So best case scenario for Dems is that FL Supreme Court doesn’t hear the case and agrees with this judges ruling or hears it and agrees so that Dems pick up another seat?

If you go back a few pages, you can read the livethread (only partially copied to this forum) from when the case recently had it's day in court. This will help to understand the arguments the state is and must advance on it's part to defend the case, if we end up in the Florida Supreme Court.

I have written previously on potential reasons why both the state and the plaintiffs had reasons to desire a reduction of the case to the single district and the single argument. However, it is no doubt that a stacked Judiciary was one of the potential reasons on the part of the plaintiffs. The case is now something very similar to a Section 2 VRA suit, which as we have seen, if logically advanced with data can sway traditionalist judges.

The planned DeSantis defense against North Florida was to argue against the Constitutionality of the Fair Districts Amendment by way of the VRA it was built off. This argument had merits up until Milligan affirmed the present constitutional order, and DeSantis's attempts to preempt a theorized ruling blew up in his face. However, the transformation of the case into a non-Diminishment argument leaves the state with unconstitutionality as the only clear way to maintain the current map. Which is why their lawyers threw everything at the wall to see if it stuck, and why GOP judicial activism remains their easiest out.

If however, the constitutionality of the established amendment is secure, then the state must prove they didn't illegally Diminish accessibility. Which again is difficult. Since this district basically is only concerning African American voters, voter cohesiveness is all but proven. The flow of the argument therefore became that FL-05 as drawn last decade was uncompact under Gingles and it is the only way to provide an access district solely in North Florida. This trail judge basically ignored that argument because the Florida Supreme Court ruled said district was compact and he was no activist looking to overrule them.

Obviously before the Supreme Court, that isn't a factor. However, because the reduction of the case was seemingly done under the the plaintiffs legal terms, they new this defense was the state's second out. The defense came prepared with evidence on how the rest of the map, and other maps, has numerous districts that cut more municipalities and respect less local lines than the 5th. They also pointed to the well-established body of legal precedent that shows Gingles compactness is more a precise tool used against things like the 2010 map's FL-05 or everything drawn in the 90s, not a blunt object for districts you don't like. But even if we accept the state's position on both of these points, the plaintiffs did not forget the now viable compact Duval-only alternative, something the state's lawyers tried to conveniently forget. More compact, still accessible under the functionality tests, just less desirable.

Which is why that unless the State Supreme Court is going to go activist and strike out the amendment, or is going to punt any potential responsibility on their part by deeming that the state 'auto-loses' since it has no standing to sue it's own constitution, it would be in the interests of saving everyone time and money to just not take up the appeal. The pre-trial agreement set the terms of engagement so favorably for the plaintiffs when it came to this district, that one suspects the state knew it had lost the 5th after Milligan. While they had to maintain the facade, the play is done, and there's no point repeating it unless something is to be significantly altered.

[Atlas Force]

Good article:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1698350009756811384

[windjammer]

Good article:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1698350009756811384

Reading the thread it appears that the FL secretary of state has really screwed up the republicans with his garbage far right arguments that even a rick scott appointee refused to take into consideration.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground