Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think assuming a 10pt swing to the Tories in Carrick, Cumnock & Etc, is stretching things a little bit far...

[Voice from the South West]

I would have thought the Tories would have more chance of winning one of the Borders seats from the Lib Dems before winning Carrick from Labour - though if turnout was ludicrously low last time then the use of % swing pretty much becomes meaningless.

[minionofmidas]

Any Conservative voter in so working class a place is likely to be the type attracted by a party like OCV...

Then you don't know Conservatives

Or you don't know the Western Isles.

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Obviously not.

[afleitch]

I think assuming a 10pt swing to the Tories in Carrick, Cumnock & Etc, is stretching things a little bit far...

Not if you know the area and the recent demographic change, and certainly not if it is an 'indirect' swing. Labours vote share has fallen by over 13 points in comparison to 2003, this year. It is based on those figures and of course can show an accentuated Labour collapse in some areas, while holding up in others like Clydesdale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not if you know the area and the recent demographic change, and certainly not if it is an 'indirect' swing.

A 10pt swing is huge, demographic shifts or no demographic shifts. And for it to be an indirect swing, Labour would have to lose something like 20pts...

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That's comparing to local by-elections right? I think in terms of polls it's about half that (which is still less than good o/c).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sheriden has won his defamation case.

[Harry Hayfield]

Sheridan victory in court battle

Tommy Sheridan has won his defamation case against the News of the World.  A jury of six men and five women took three hours to dismiss the tabloid's claims the Socialist MSP was a serial adulterer and swinger who used drugs.

Mr Sheridan, 42, who represented himself, said the victory was the equivalent of Gretna FC beating Real Madrid on penalties.

The Sunday tabloid was ordered to pay Mr Sheridan £200,000 damages. It said it planned to appeal the verdict. Mr Sheridan won his case on a majority verdict of seven to four.

Speaking outside the Court of Session, he delivered an emotional and political speech.

He said: "We have over the last five weeks taken on one of the biggest organisations on the planet with the biggest amount of resources to pay for the most expensive legal teams to throw nothing but muck against me, my wife and my family.

"Today's verdict proves working class people can differentiate the truth from the muck.

"The working class people on the jury have done a service to the people of Scotland and delivered a message to the standard of journalism the News of the World represents.

"They are liars and they have proved they are liars."

He said he could not have conducted the case without the "loyalty and support" of his family and "thousands of working class people".

He said he was looking forward to spending some quality time with his 14-month-old daughter Gabrielle.

Mr Sheridan compared the win to Gretna FC beating Real Madrid in Spain on penalties.

The verdict was initially met with a stunned silence in the courtroom before relatives of Mr Sheridan wept.


His wife Gail hugged her husband for almost a minute in the court after the verdict was delivered.

The MSP's mother Alice said afterwards: "Our prayers have been answered."

Speaking outside the court Bob Bird, editor in Scotland of the News of the World, said he was "absolutely astonished" at the outcome.

He added: "This result suggests that 18 independent witnesses, came to this court and committed monstrous acts of perjury.

"We simply cannot accept that is what happened.

"On that basis, we will be lodging an appeal against this verdict.

"And the basis for that appeal is that today's verdict was perverse."

Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) Leader Colin Fox, who gave evidence against his comrade, is due to make a statement.

Witnesses for the News of the World told lurid stories of Mr Sheridan allegedly visiting a Manchester sex club, having sex with a former prostitute and being in a threesome.

SSP colleagues said party minutes showed Mr Sheridan had admitted visiting the sex club.

MSP Caroline Leckie said the case was about a man with a reputation for honesty and integrity being shown to be a hypocrite and liar.

Other party members denied the existence of the minute.

Mr Sheridan broke down as he told the jury he would never betray his wife.

Gail Sheridan said she trusted her husband and had never been so proud of him.

[Harry Hayfield]

What's most interesting is now we know why Mr. Sheridan stood down as leader of the SSP, will there be a campaign to get him back as leader? As a comparsion, during the time that he was leader, the SSP polled between 4 and 8%, since Mr. Fox took over they've been lucky to hit 2%

[afleitch]

What's most interesting is now we know why Mr. Sheridan stood down as leader of the SSP, will there be a campaign to get him back as leader? As a comparsion, during the time that he was leader, the SSP polled between 4 and 8%, since Mr. Fox took over they've been lucky to hit 2%

Yes, though as far as I know, his victory shatters the credibilty of its other MSP's so I wouldn't be suprised if he forms his own party - typical far leftist party, the divide themselves like cells.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yes, that's true. Didn't they all give evidence against him in court?

[Harry Hayfield]

What's most interesting is now we know why Mr. Sheridan stood down as leader of the SSP, will there be a campaign to get him back as leader? As a comparsion, during the time that he was leader, the SSP polled between 4 and 8%, since Mr. Fox took over they've been lucky to hit 2%

Yes, though as far as I know, his victory shatters the credibilty of its other MSP's so I wouldn't be suprised if he forms his own party - typical far leftist party, the divide themselves like cells.

Mmm, how's this for a name then?

"Independents for a Socialist Scotland"

[minionofmidas]

What's most interesting is now we know why Mr. Sheridan stood down as leader of the SSP, will there be a campaign to get him back as leader? As a comparsion, during the time that he was leader, the SSP polled between 4 and 8%, since Mr. Fox took over they've been lucky to hit 2%

Yes, though as far as I know, his victory shatters the credibilty of its other MSP's so I wouldn't be suprised if he forms his own party - typical far leftist party, the divide themselves like cells.

Mmm, how's this for a name then?

"Independents for a Socialist Scotland"

He'll have 200,000Pounds to launch it. Should come in handy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sheridan wants the leadership of the SSP back.

Looks like Civil War...

[WMS]

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[Harry Hayfield]

Blaenau Gwent : The Tallies

Labour: £113,000
Independents: £13,000

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/5257292.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's actually towards the lower limit of estimates I'd heard. Still too much though (it works out at about £55,000 for each candidate) but I suspect most by-elections in the future will have more spent on them

As I've said before, the limit for by-elections is far too high.

What were the Bromley figures?

[Harry Hayfield]

Tommy Sheridan has been nominated as leader of the SSP by the Orkney SSP party branch and the following PDF file has been posted on the SSP website

http://www.scottishsocialistparty.org/pdfs/Bulletinsummer06pdf.pdf

SSP wipeout in 2007 and if so, who benefits?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SSP have been known to take votes from both Labour and the SNP.

[afleitch]

The SSP have been known to take votes from both Labour and the SNP.

True. Though on a seat by seat basis, in West Central Scotland there is a correlation between the SNP fall and the SSP rise - it's the 'protest' Labour vote. The votes that Labour lost to the SSP in 2003 are unlikely to come back to the party, it's where they go that will be interesting.

'RESPECT' our quasi-fascist friends, have suggested that they would run should the SSP implode. While I am not the SSP's biggest fan, their membership (of which I knoew a few :/ )is not the same as Respect's membership; with a different focus, far less relgious and less Iraq obsessed. If ther has to be a far left party in Scotland I would prefer the SSP over Respect any day

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The votes that Labour lost to the SSP in 2003 are unlikely to come back to the party, it's where they go that will be interesting.

Well, not at Holyrood level anyway (it's interesting quite how consistently worse Labour does at Holyrood and Westminster levels; can't all be down to turnout).

Most likely would be staying at home, though they might be attracted to a more left-leaning SNP candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting piece (from http://lukejyoung.blogspot.com/) on the cost of the Blaenau Gwent by-elections...

£112,000 and we still lost... next time let's do it our way

The Electoral Commission has revealed that the Labour Party spent more than £112,000 on June's double by-election in Blaenau Gwent. Compared with Independents Dai Davies and Trish Law, whos campaigns cost under £7,000 each, the party spent nearly £100,000 more of party member's money and lets face it - you could tell.

I supported Owen and John throughout the campaign and was gutted when they didn't win. I am really proud to have worked on the by-election where we were upbeat and fighting on the issues. Local Party members believed that we had chosen extremely capable candidates in Owen and John and we were eager to help them.

Now, some within the party might criticise me for saying this, and they are more than welcome to. I honestly believe that the huge sums of money being thrown at the campaign, actually damaged our chances. Labour's leaflet war, directed by party officials, annoyed thousands of voters. The constant barrage of repetitive phone calls angered many, especially the questions about voting preferences. I personally received at least three phone calls asking if I was going to vote Labour. There seemed to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking at the top.

Whilst we won back many voters, the majority of people rejected the in-your-face approach.

So let's learn from it. Next time, allow our candidates to be the main focus in people's minds not the never-ending campaign literature. Let's have some joined up thinking at the top of the Party, in fact, let us the local party members run our campaign. We all know that there were many reasons why we lost, despite having fantastic candidates. The campaign was always going to be tough, but matters were not helped by the failures of party officials.

The door-to-door approach worked, the phone calls didn't.

I'm not saying this as an attack on the party, but I want us to be in best fighting shape ready for the Assembly elections in May. I do not want interfering by party hacks to damage our chances again.

[afleitch]

The best campaign that Labour should focus on in Scotland is...none at all. While the SNP have not yet entered a campaign as favourites (not even in 1999) once they start, and the hostile media get involved and figures are floated, they tend to take a dip. The Sun tends to be ambivolent towards party support, but in the past has put out pieces in support of the SNP onn a Holyrood level. Why? Well because it's rival the Daily Record supports Labour; it's a sales strategy. The Sun has this year over-taken the Record in sales, so if the political battle heats up in 2007, expect the sales battle to do the same, and vice versa.

[Rural Radical]

Interesting piece (from http://lukejyoung.blogspot.com/) on the cost of the Blaenau Gwent by-elections...

£112,000 and we still lost... next time let's do it our way

The Electoral Commission has revealed that the Labour Party spent more than £112,000 on June's double by-election in Blaenau Gwent. Compared with Independents Dai Davies and Trish Law, whos campaigns cost under £7,000 each, the party spent nearly £100,000 more of party member's money and lets face it - you could tell.

I supported Owen and John throughout the campaign and was gutted when they didn't win. I am really proud to have worked on the by-election where we were upbeat and fighting on the issues. Local Party members believed that we had chosen extremely capable candidates in Owen and John and we were eager to help them.

Now, some within the party might criticise me for saying this, and they are more than welcome to. I honestly believe that the huge sums of money being thrown at the campaign, actually damaged our chances. Labour's leaflet war, directed by party officials, annoyed thousands of voters. The constant barrage of repetitive phone calls angered many, especially the questions about voting preferences. I personally received at least three phone calls asking if I was going to vote Labour. There seemed to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking at the top.

Whilst we won back many voters, the majority of people rejected the in-your-face approach.

So let's learn from it. Next time, allow our candidates to be the main focus in people's minds not the never-ending campaign literature. Let's have some joined up thinking at the top of the Party, in fact, let us the local party members run our campaign. We all know that there were many reasons why we lost, despite having fantastic candidates. The campaign was always going to be tough, but matters were not helped by the failures of party officials.

The door-to-door approach worked, the phone calls didn't.

I'm not saying this as an attack on the party, but I want us to be in best fighting shape ready for the Assembly elections in May. I do not want interfering by party hacks to damage our chances again.

Basically we should allow the local party to choose their own candidate whoever it is and keep door Knocking with face to face contact.

[Harry Hayfield]

Is Sheridan about to do a Kilroy-Silk?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5259628.stm

[afleitch]

Is Sheridan about to do a Kilroy-Silk?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5259628.stm

Let's hope so The more scrappy marxist parties competing for votes the better.