Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 10pt gap between the LibDem vote in the constituency and list elections looks... odd...

Which polling firm did this one?

[afleitch]

The 10pt gap between the LibDem vote in the constituency and list elections looks... odd...

Which polling firm did this one?

Some outfit called 'Progressive Partnership'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 10pt gap between the LibDem vote in the constituency and list elections looks... odd...

Which polling firm did this one?

Some outfit called 'Progressive Partnership'

Seems to be a market-research thingy. Odd thing is that the Labour and SNP numbers don't look so strange.
The decline in Green support from 2003 also looks odd.

[afleitch]

The 10pt gap between the LibDem vote in the constituency and list elections looks... odd...

Which polling firm did this one?

Some outfit called 'Progressive Partnership'

Seems to be a market-research thingy. Odd thing is that the Labour and SNP numbers don't look so strange.
The decline in Green support from 2003 also looks odd.

I tend to ignore Greens and Socialist figures- they are simply not reliable. As I said having the SSP in the constituency preferences is a mistake as they simply won't be standing. Furthermore we now have Solidarity

The long standing tradition of underestimating Conservative support (in 99 and 03 and again during polls in 01 and 05 for Westminster) continues. However while 10-11% is low, I actually think the party is in danger of slipping from last time round. They may pick up more FPTP seats by default of the Labour vote slipping but they may be punished in the top up votes.

[merseysider]

I tend to ignore Greens and Socialist figures- they are simply not reliable.

I'd say much the same for the SNP vote. They are frequently overestimated in the polls. Their vote is a mile wide and an inch deep; an independent Scotland has an emotional appeal to many people which evaporates when they have to confront economic reality in the polling booth. I can remember Election 92 when there was a lot of hype about the SNP, who were running on a slogan of "Scotland Free by 93". They won a grand total of three seats (a net loss of two), and most humiliatingly of all, ended up with one fewer seat than their Welsh counterparts Plaid Cymru!!!!

There's no doubt in my mind that Labour will emerge as the largest party, although as is so often the case with PR, who actually forms the government will be the product of skulduggery in smoke-filled rooms.

[afleitch]

Their vote is a mile wide and an inch deep; an independent Scotland has an emotional appeal to many people which evaporates when they have to confront economic reality in the polling booth.

You do realise that an increasingly dismissive attitude of the Scots in the national media (based on the incorrect assumption that 'England' subsidises 'Scotland', where in fact Wales, Northern Ireland and Northern England put Scotland to shame when it comes to subsidies ) is probably partly feuling the rise of the SNP and the rise in support for independence.

The 'economic reality' of Scottish independence has been thoroughly researched and is actually becoming more of an attractive proposition; even to the Scottish Conservatives some of whom who have called for 'fiscal independence' while still remaining part of the UK in theory.
 

[merseysider]

You do realise that an increasingly dismissive attitude of the Scots in the national media (based on the incorrect assumption that 'England' subsidises 'Scotland', where in fact Wales, Northern Ireland and Northern England put Scotland to shame when it comes to subsidies ) is probably partly feuling the rise of the SNP and the rise in support for independence.

Yes, much of the North of England does get loads of subsidies because it is an economically deprived region. However, nobody is suggesting that Merseyside or South Yorkshire become independent nation states.

The problem for Scotland is that it has a Norwegian-style public sector but an economy more similar to that of Greece. Public spending as a percentage of GDP in Scotland is about 10% higher than south of the border.

If this is not the case, why do so many educated young Scots head south of the border to live and work? Because Scotland's economy cannot provide them with the opportunities they want and need. I work for a major firm of accountants; there are three scots in my department alone.

Clearly today's Scotland would not work as an independent nation. For an independent Scotland to thrive it would have to drastically cut back its public sector and become a low-tax, low-regulation, 'devil-take-the-hindmost' free enterprise haven. However, this would be anathema to most Scots. Scotland is arguably one of the most left wing nations in the world. Can you think of anywhere else where there is no major party of the right (the Tories come 4th) and the three leading parties are all essentially social democratic?

[afleitch]

There are some sectors of the Scottish economy which do underperform, but on the whole we have the 3rd highest GDP, behind only London and the South East. And again, the spending patterns as you point out, do favour economically deprived regions.

Secondly the SNP is promoting a free-enterprise low tax economy which is precisely what is attracting people to them and bringing them increasing backing from business leaders and economists. The SNP is effectively evolving into a centre-right party on economic issues bringing it back to its 70's-80's economic positioning. The notion that Scotland is somehow inherently and unshiftably 'left-wing' is nonsense.

[merseysider]

Secondly the SNP is promoting a free-enterprise low tax economy

I doubt that somehow.

What the SNP are probably doing is what they've always done - promoting independence as a miracle cure to all the nation's ills which will deliver both vastly increased public spending and vastly decreased taxation (as well as improving the weather and helping Scotland win the world cup).

I expect Alex Salmond will appoint Father Christmas as the Minister for Finance if he forms a government.

[afleitch]

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_headline=labour-facing-election-blow-%26method=full%26objectid=18010152%26siteid=50082-name_page.html

Labour facing election blow

LABOUR faces an electoral hiding at the polls next year at the hands of the resurgent Tories, according to a new poll.

The poll, which shows how backing for the party has dropped to its lowest level for almost 20 years, says Labour will lose seats to both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru next May.

Carried out by pollsters ICM, voters were asked how they would vote if there was a Westminster election tomorrow, rather than an Assembly vote

First up...what the ---- is the point in polling Westminster intention and not Assembly intention? Okay I'm about to answer my own question, seems its extracted data from the last ICM poll....

----------------

In other news the SNP ( or Szkocha Partia Narodowa)  plan to target Polish voters (yes they are eligable to vote) with leaflets and registration cards in Polish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First up...what the ---- is the point in polling Westminster intention and not Assembly intention? Okay I'm about to answer my own question, seems its extracted data from the last ICM poll....

You didn't seriously think that anyone in the Cardiff media would actually commision a poll, when they can just cherry-pick a Welsh breakdown with a ridiculously large MoE from a national poll did you?

They've done this sort of thing before, btw.

[afleitch]

First up...what the ---- is the point in polling Westminster intention and not Assembly intention? Okay I'm about to answer my own question, seems its extracted data from the last ICM poll....

You didn't seriously think that anyone in the Cardiff media would actually commision a poll, when they can just cherry-pick a Welsh breakdown with a ridiculously large MoE from a national poll did you?

They've done this sort of thing before, btw.

Bloody hell. If I was Welsh I would give up and commission a poll myself

[Harry Hayfield]

First up...what the ---- is the point in polling Westminster intention and not Assembly intention? Okay I'm about to answer my own question, seems its extracted data from the last ICM poll....

You didn't seriously think that anyone in the Cardiff media would actually commision a poll, when they can just cherry-pick a Welsh breakdown with a ridiculously large MoE from a national poll did you?

They've done this sort of thing before, btw.

Bloody hell. If I was Welsh I would give up and commission a poll myself

Okay then. Do you have £7,500 lying around doing nothing as that's how much a poll would cost! As to the fact that there is a Welsh poll, well stone the crows! A Welsh Poll, incredible!

[Harry Hayfield]

As to the actual numbers, I'm a little doubtful. Here's the poll and change on Election 2005:

Conservatives 39% (+18% on Election 2005)
Labour 29% (-14% on Election 2005)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+4% on Election 2005)
Plaid Cymru (estimate) 7% (-6% on Election 2005)
Others 3% (-2% on Election 2005)
Conservative lead of 10% (+31% on Election 2005)

Forecast House of Commons (2005 boundaries)
Conservatives 22 seats (+19 seats)
Labour 13 seats (-16 seats)
Liberal Democrats 4 seats (Unchanged)
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 seat (Unchanged)

You seriously expect me (and everyone else in Wales) to believe that the Conservatives will gain Dwyfor from Plaid Cymru at a Westminster Election, or that Labour will lose Wrexham to the Conservatives. You are having a laugh!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The headline figures used are the national numbers. I don't think they even bothered to print the breakdown ones.

[Harry Hayfield]

As to the actual numbers, I'm a little doubtful. Here's the poll and change on Election 2005:

Conservatives 39% (+18% on Election 2005)
Labour 29% (-14% on Election 2005)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+4% on Election 2005)
Plaid Cymru (estimate) 7% (-6% on Election 2005)
Others 3% (-2% on Election 2005)
Conservative lead of 10% (+31% on Election 2005)

Forecast House of Commons (2005 boundaries)
Conservatives 22 seats (+19 seats)
Labour 13 seats (-16 seats)
Liberal Democrats 4 seats (Unchanged)
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 seat (Unchanged)

You seriously expect me (and everyone else in Wales) to believe that the Conservatives will gain Dwyfor from Plaid Cymru at a Westminster Election, or that Labour will lose Wrexham to the Conservatives. You are having a laugh!

The last time the Conservatives polled that high in Wales. 1895!

[Harry Hayfield]

The headline figures used are the national numbers. I don't think they even bothered to print the breakdown ones.

In that case, what is it doing in a WELSH newspaper. To quote Doctor Who "I've a good mind to complain when this is over!"

[Harry Hayfield]

I rang the Western Mail and ICM yesterday in order to find out the purely Welsh figures and seem to have come across something rather interesting.

When I rang ICM, I asked to speak to someone who could answer my question about a poll in the Wales on Sunday. "Did you ring yesterday?" asked the receptionist and I said that I had not. So I was passed to the right person and he asked the same question. I said again that I had not, but was looking for the specfic Welsh numbers.

The person at ICM then said something extremely interesting namely that ICM had NOT done any Welsh opinion polls in the last year and none for the Wales on Sunday specfically. Following our conversation I e-mailed the article to the person I spoke to and got the impression that the Wales on Sunday could be in a bit of trouble.

[afleitch]

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1615112006

New ICM poll for the Scotsman (going to be a regular thing aparently)

'Would you vote for independence?'

YES 51%
NO 39%
DON'T KNOW 10%

Voting intention

SNP 32
LAB 30
LIB 15
CON 14
SSP 4
GREEN 3

List vote:

SNP 28
LAB 28
LIB 17
CON 14
GRE 6
SSP 4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sounds about right (or at least what I'd have expected. There may be a difference between these two concepts ) Will be interesting to see how the numbers swing around over the next few months.

The gap between the LibDem list and constituency vote is interesting; good news for Salmond's hopes in Gordon?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comparing these figures (as they're fairly similer to most other published polls...) to last time and Labour is about 4/5pts down. I'm wondering if this is a lot sharper in some areas than others.
If that's the case it'd be (relatively) good news for Scottish Labour; heavy losses in Edinburgh and north of the Tay (these are the two areas where Labour expects to do very badly, right?) and not much of a decline elsewhere would work out much better in terms of overall seats than a uniform swing.
Also interesting to note that the LibDem constituency number is about the same as in 2003, but the list number has almost doubled. Not sure what sort of effect that would have.

[afleitch]

The gap between the LibDem list and constituency vote is interesting; good news for Salmond's hopes in Gordon?

Probably not; If Salmon can't take Gordon, but the SNP pick up seats in the North East region, such as Dundee West/Aberdeen Central it would deprive them of any seats in the top up list at all. Salmond tops that list but there is no guarantee he will be returned if the SNP 'over-perform'

Of course, I am encouraging anyone in my local Tory party who will listen that we should adopt a 'lie down' strategy in the Central belt to give the SNP a boost. I mean I won't be doing anything in Hamilton South anyway- we will all get bused into Eastwood

The Scotsman also has independence support figures by party. I'll dig them out later

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably not; If Salmon can't take Gordon, but the SNP pick up seats in the North East region, such as Dundee West/Aberdeen Central it would deprive them of any seats in the top up list at all. Salmond tops that list but there is no guarantee he will be returned if the SNP 'over-perform'

In which case, I get the distinct suspicion that Labour might be somewhat half-hearted in trying to defend those seats?

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Tis the logical thing to do. There are only three Tories left in Hamilton South anyway, and you are one of them

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Prediction: SNP overwhelmingly in favour, Lab, Lib not far off overall average, Tories largely against.

I based that on the referendums of 1997...

[afleitch]

Independence Support by Voting Intention (guesswork from the graph!)

SNP: YES 80% NO 16%
OTHER: YES 62% NO 38%
LAB: YES 45% NO 50%
LIB: YES 44% NO 49%
CON: YES 28% NO 66%

[Harry Hayfield]

I rang the Western Mail and ICM yesterday in order to find out the purely Welsh figures and seem to have come across something rather interesting.

When I rang ICM, I asked to speak to someone who could answer my question about a poll in the Wales on Sunday. "Did you ring yesterday?" asked the receptionist and I said that I had not. So I was passed to the right person and he asked the same question. I said again that I had not, but was looking for the specfic Welsh numbers.

The person at ICM then said something extremely interesting namely that ICM had NOT done any Welsh opinion polls in the last year and none for the Wales on Sunday specfically. Following our conversation I e-mailed the article to the person I spoke to and got the impression that the Wales on Sunday could be in a bit of trouble.

Taken from yesterday's Wales on Sunday:

"CLARIFICATIONNov 5 2006

 

 
Matt Withers, Wales on Sunday
 
 
AN ARTICLE in last week's Wales on Sunday, headlined 'Labour facing election blow', quoted the polling agency ICM as saying that Labour were set to lose nine seats if a general election were to be called now.

We are pleased to clarify that the constituency predictions were made by political researchers within the Conservative Party and based on a nationwide poll by ICM."

I thank you (bows, bows, bows)