Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to add but several polls have been published in Scotland over the past few days.
To a certain extend they all disagree with each other.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet more Scottish polls are out. I might put all the figures down here. Any reason for the poll glut? (beyond the conferences o/c).

[afleitch]

Yet more Scottish polls are out. I might put all the figures down here. Any reason for the poll glut? (beyond the conferences o/c).

I presume its the polling companies themselves that are putting them out of desperation in order to test methodology for the future, which would partly explain why they are yo-yoing up and down. Unlike in UK General Elections we can't say who is 'close' or what methodology is the strongest as the only regular polster before now, System 3 was pretty poor.

The electoral system is also troubling them which is why the list tallys are unsuprisingly volatile. It would be better to invest in in depth studys of how people use their list vote and where they might switch it to. There was a study of that just after the 2003 election so I'll try and dig it out.

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6204088.stm

Reid attacked over terror warning
Home Secretary John Reid has claimed independence would make Scotland and the UK "weaker" in the war against global terrorism.
In a series of newspaper interviews, he said Scotland could be left defenceless against groups such as al-Qaeda.

But his claims met with an angry response from Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond.

The MP said the comments were "an inept attempt at slandering" the SNP from "a serial offender in blundering".

---------
And it continues; Labours new political tactic of which Karl Rove would be proud, playing 'the politics of fear' where questioning Labours anti-terror policy is to put your life in danger is now aimed at Scotland.

Luckily, from the mornings Scottish perspective it appears to have backfired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The nasty row over the budget continues to get nastier. Some deal of sorts will likely get struck at some point before next weeks vote, but the way certain people have acted over it has been extremely irresponsible. And is another reminder of why turnouts for non-Westminster elections are always so low...

There are rumours that Plaid might be the opposition party that backs down over this if any do.
If so, then Ieuan Wyn Jones will have finally done something intelligent for once in his political career.

[afleitch]

They seem to be polling the council elections too. Labour to loose control of 12 of their 13 councils only holding onto North Lanarkshire (currently holding the accolade as Scotlands most corrupt local authority for the 10th year running according to a consumer group) according to YouGov. But it will of course remain the largest party in most of the 12 councils it is curently projected to loose overall control

[Filuwaúrdjan]

O/c with the new electoral system the traditional definitions of control, no-overall-control and so on should probably be abandoned.
How do the polls compare to the various notional figures published?

[afleitch]

MY SEAT BY SEAT ANALYSIS

Once all 73 seats are profiled I'll update these predictions every month or so and then more regularly as the elections draw near

Up first - Edinburgh and the Lothians and Central Scotland (West of Scotland should be ready soon)

EDINBURGH AND THE LOTHIANS

Midlothian – A safe Labour seat within the Edinburgh commuter built it has to be remembered that this seat is still rural and unlike it’s southern neighbours does not have a Liberal tradition. Even a strong swing against Labour is unlikely to translate into a loss. Prediction; LAB HOLD

Edinburgh South – Liberal Democrats gained this seat in 2003 thanks to a significant student population contained within the seat and in 2005 came a close second in it’s Westminster ‘equivalent.’ Likely to remain under Lib Dem control with an increased majority particularly if Conservative voters continue to switch. The Conservatives can only hope to come in a respectable 3rd. Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD.

Edinburgh Central – Current Labour marginal again taking in a broad student population alongside ‘urban professionals.’ Liberal Democrats likely to focus strongly here particularly if Edinburgh South appears safe. Greens polled the most votes here in the list vote last time round; if they chose to run a candidate in the constituency itself the party could poll very strongly indeed but with the probable effect of a very slim Labour victory caused by a deflation in the Lib Dem vote. Prediction: LIB DEM GAIN

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh -Sarah Boyack has a large personal vote here that is likely to recede with her decision to stand down. SNP believe they have a chance here but looking at the figures it will be a long shot and they are unlikely to have the resources to make a breakthrough. Prediction: LAB HOLD

Edinburgh North and Leith - Better territory for the SNP. Leith has been economically and demographically transformed since this seat was drawn in the mid-90’s and is more closely connected to central Edinburgh than in previous years. If the SNP can woo urban professionals here the seat is easily in play. Considering their general weakness as a party throughout the rest of the city it may be worth the effort. Prediction: TOO CLOSE TO CALL- leans Labour

Edinburgh Pentlands – Conservatives made a convincing gain here in 2003 after six years of trying thanks to David McLetchie. Since 2003 however, McLetchie has lost the party leadership but still remains a popular figure in this part of the Edinburgh periphery. Should break even with 2003 if Labour take a downturn. Prediction: CON HOLD

Linlithgow and Livingston – Two seats here that may share a very similar fate. They are both Labour held but under assault by the SNP who are likely to co-ordinate efforts to win them, particularly Livingston, in a revival of the SNP’s ‘new town strategy’ of the 1970’s. Livingston is experiencing a population boom due to its choice location midway between Glasgow and Edinburgh that may see it’s population rocket to 100,000 in the next 20 years so organizational success in one seat that could eventually become two is strategically important. While Linlithgow is the easier target of the two, expect similar swings in each seat. Prediction: SNP GAIN BOTH SEATS

--------------------------

CENTRAL SCOTLAND

Central Scotland is safer territory for Labour but contains two of the most tight LAB/SNP marginals.

Cumbernauld and Kilsyth – SNP pragmatist Andrew Wilson performed very well here, but due to his political assassination in his party list did not return to Holyrood. Indeed Wilson’s vote share ironically was as much a vote against the SNP as it was for. This seat is also a focus of the new town strategy but economically is one of the least prosperous. The SNP will work hard here and it should be an easy target however so will Labour. Prediction: TOO CLOSE TO CALL – leans SNP

Airdrie and Shotts - Not much to be said really; strong Labour even on a bad day despite the close ’94 by election in it’s predecessor Monklands East, after John Smiths death, which was more about local council politics and unfortunately religion. Prediction: LAB HOLD

Coatbridge and Chyyston - Ditto. Prediction: LAB HOLD

Motherwell -I would say ditto again, but bear in mind this is Jack McConnells seat so expect a flurry of parties and independents on the ballot. Despite a fall in Jack’s popularity there are two polar outcomes- a fall in his support as a protest against him makes this a tight and embarrasing race….or Motherwell is one of the safest Labour seats of the night. Prediction: LAB HOLD

Hamilton North and Bellshill - Despite taking in middle class Bothwell and Bellshill which had the accolade of having the fastest rising houseprices in Scotland and seeing a boost in it’s population due to even more rampant housebuilding on the outskirts of the town, this seat is fast becoming the ‘mort-gauge’ (geddit!) seat of Scotland which is likely to help Labour here. However an economic downturn or downturn in house prices could see this seat come into play. Unlikely however. Prediction: LAB HOLD

Hamilton South. My own seat so likely to get the most coverage SNP are locally desperate to win here due to it’s by-election history. While the percentage vote share the SNP have to overturn looks difficult on paper, the raw figures in this small seat look more favourable to the SNP despite needing a double digit swing. Is also likely to be the first seat declared on the night, probably 20 minutes or so after polls close due to the new electronic counting (not voting however) system. The Conservatives came third here last time and Margaret Mitchell 9who won on the list vote) has been building a strong local profile. Prediction: LAB HOLD (unfortunately!)

East Kilbride. Easier target for the SNP- the party has increased its prominence in local politics particularly within the new town itself and the villages to the south demographically are slightly closer to the villages in Eastwood than they are to the villages in Clydesdale. In order to win here the SNP need to target both the town and the villages (Strathaven in particular) Prediction: SNP GAIN

Kilmarnock – Again another seat where the SNP must perform well in the rural villages to win. This seat has seen a strong performance from the SNP for the best part of two decades but they have never managed to win it. 2007 looks promising and better still for the SNP, looks likely. Prediction: SNP GAIN

Falkirk East and West - Two seats here. If Canavan runs again in Falkirk West he wins no questions asked. Falkirk East is likely to remain Labour despite a local presence by the SNP. Prediction: IND HOLD FALKIRK WEST, LAB HOLD FALKIRK EAST

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[afleitch]

Part 2
HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS

Orkney/Shetland – Two small seats and two easy wins for the Lib Dems. However these seats should be more competitive if other parties run on local issues. Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD BOTH

Western Isles – Labour should be helped here by the confirmed absence of Rev George ‘royalties’ Hargreaves who will not stand this time round. In 2005 his candidacy may have helped the SNP gain this seat. However bearing in mind recent trends it is likely that the SNP will be aiming for a similar result to the General Election. Prediction: SNP GAIN

Caithness and Sutherland – Labour topped the list vote here but have not been competitive in this seat since the 1970’s. Prediction: LID DEM HOLD

Ross, Cromarty and Skye – Little to be said. Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD

Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber – While the reconstituted seat of Inverness was seized by the Lib Dems in the 2005 General Election, the Holyrood seat is vastly different in geography and in make-up. This has always been a difficult seat to predict with the Lib Dems, Labour and the SNP all holding it in some form since the 1980’s. Currently it is held by the SNP and has a popular sitting MSP. Any local issues that creep up must been keenly watched. Prediction: SNP HOLD

Moray – SNP won here in the 2006 by-election with the Conservatives in second place. There was movement towards both parties. Prediction: SNP HOLD

Argyll and Bute – Lib Dem held, the SNP topped the list vote in this seat. Despite a constant belief that this seat could surprise before every election, come election time this seat seems to remain loyally Lib Dem. SNP will push hard here. Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD


NORTH EAST SCOTLAND

Banff and Buchan – SNP stronghold though Alex Salmond does not represent this seat at Holyrood. Prediction – SNP HOLD

Gordon – Alex Salmond is standing here in this characteristically lukewarm seaT for the SNP. This is a significant gamble; Alex is relying on name recognition to win this seat. He also tops the North East list, but if the SNP overperform here, he will fail to be returned to Holyrood if he does not win Gordon. Expect resources from Banff and Buchan to be focused here. Prediction: TOO CLOSE TO CALL – Lean Lib Dem

Aberdeen North - An unexpected SNP gain in 2003, they are favourites to retain this seat. Prediction: SNP HOLD

Aberdeen South – Lib Dems building up a strong base in this seat and should hold it easily. However the Conservatives are no longer in contention in this seat. Prediction – LIB DEM HOLD

Aberdeen Central – This seat will be a three way LAB/LIB/SNP marginal currently held by Labour – for Labour to loose this seat and with it, representation in Aberdeen (and perhaps representation anywhere north of Stirling) would be a blow, however a split opposition could allow them to retain it. With SNP holding North and the Lib Dems holding South, Aberdeen Central will be more of a battle between them than with Labour. Prediction: TOO CLOSE TO CALL – leans SNP

Kincardine and Deeside – A seat often neglected by the Conservatives in their quest to win seats to the south, this seat remains Lib Dem. While the Tories are a distant second here it may be worth the investment if elsewhere seems out of reach. Prediction: LIB DEM HOLD

Angus – A straightforward victory for the SNP is almost guaranteed here despite Tory protestations that they can win it back. Prediction: SNP HOLD

Dundee East/Dundee West – The SNP picked up Dundee East in 2003 and continues to dominate here. An increase in their majority is expected. Dundee West is Labour held but will be strongly targeted by the SNP. Prediction: SNP HOLD Dundee West, SNP GAIN Dundee East

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The leader of Glasgow City Council has announced that he is gay

[afleitch]

The leader of Glasgow City Council has announced that he is gay

And the Sun of all papers leads with it The Daily Record would of course do no such thing, not because it is Labour's mouthpiece but it is 'subtley' homophobic :/ Actually no- lets say virulently in a way that would shame the Daily Mail (it's also considered to be-antic Catholic too- indeed there seems to be a religious split developing in who reads what...)

[afleitch]

Reports that Labour, should they be returned as the largest party will form a minority government rather than a coalition with the Lib Dems. They could realistically have done so in 1999; not now.

[Harry Hayfield]

The nasty row over the budget continues to get nastier. Some deal of sorts will likely get struck at some point before next weeks vote, but the way certain people have acted over it has been extremely irresponsible. And is another reminder of why turnouts for non-Westminster elections are always so low...

There are rumours that Plaid might be the opposition party that backs down over this if any do.
If so, then Ieuan Wyn Jones will have finally done something intelligent for once in his political career.

Voting:

For 30
Against 17
Abstain 12

Voting by Party:

For 30 (Lab 29 FW 1 (guess))
Against 17 (Con 9 Lib Dem 6 Ind 1 (guess))
Abstain 12 (PC 12)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Indie that voted for the budget was Law, not Marek (meaning that for election purposes I'm going to treat her as Ind Lab not Ind).

The Tory and LibDem groups are furious at Plaid over this o/c. Some harsh words have been said and, probably, won't be forgotten.

Btw, I think German badly miscalculated over this.

[afleitch]

Here we have a graph of constituency voting intentions. The first one includes System 3...see how volatile it is The second is with System 3 polls removed. As S3 have a notoriously appalling record, I'm doing us all a favour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting to note that, if you ignore System 3, the Labour vote has been basically (remembering MoE and all that) static since June or so.

[afleitch]

Interesting to note that, if you ignore System 3, the Labour vote has been basically (remembering MoE and all that) static since June or so.

Indeed- if you treat the graph as a series of 'mirror' images, the SNP closely follow the Tories and Labour the Lib Dems

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Year, so so serious predictions... note that I won't be able to make a guess at overall figures until I've had a closer look at the TopUp figures from 2003 (will do that tomorrow).

North

Clwyd South: Labour hold... probably with an increased majority

Wrexham: Marek is in deep trouble and he knows it; there are indications that Labour will poll much better in Wrexham itself this time round than in 2003 (for those that don't know, in 2003 Wrexham itself voted for Marek, while the towns and villages to it's west voted for the Labour candidate) and that should be more than enough to sink him; Lean Labour (gain).

Alyn & Deeside: Labour hold

Delyn: Labour hold

Vale of Clwyd: Labour hold

Clwyd West: boundary changes have obscured what would otherwise have been a fairly straightforward Tory gain... it's not certain how the rural areas added to this seat vote in non-local elections. Personally I think they'll be better for Labour than the seat as a whole, giving Pugh at least a chance at hanging on again. Tossup.

Aberconwy: in theory, a three way race, in practice probably a Plaid (who would have won the seat on these boundaries in 2003) v Tory race, although if the race between the two is tight, you can't entirely rule out Labour coming through the middle. Tossup.

Arfon: very much a Lab/Plaid fight, and the campaign will be tight (although the final result might not be; depends on turnout really). I know I'm biased here, so I'll just say tossup.

Ynys Môn: you can never be sure of much here, but with the local Tories in disarray and the whole backroom budget deal, I think it's fair to call this lean Plaid.

Mid & West

Dwyfor-Meirionnydd: I'm not sure if the old git's recent antics will help or hurt him here, but the Lord ain't losing this one. Plaid (?) hold.

Montgomery: Maybe the... ahem... Cheeky Boy... has soured the (rather conservative in most respects) residents of Montgomeryshire off the LibDems for a while. But I doubt it; LibDem hold.

Brecon & Radnor: all depends how much effort Labour decide to put into this; the more they do, the more likely the LibDems are to lose this to the Tories. Don't think they'll bother much, so LibDem hold. Expect the Labour number on the list to be higher than for the fptp seat (again).

Ceredigion: recent bad blood between Plaid and the LibDems, coupled with the shock LibDem take-back in the General Election, make this a seat to watch. Things could turn very nasty. For now at least, this leans Plaid (Nat voters being more likely to turn out for Assembly elections than LibDems), but don't rule out another upset.

Carmarthenshire East & Dinefwr: should be a safe Plaid seat at Assembly level (and *has* been so far), but the incumbent AM is such an utter dud that an upset can't be entirely ruled out here either. Leans Plaid.

Preseli Pembrokeshire: I expect Labour to lose one of the Pembroke seats, but can't work out which. The Tories did win this in the General Election o/c, but their best candidate is now in the Commons (he'd win if he ran for the Assembly o/c) so... tossup.

Carmarthenshire West & South Pembrokeshire: see above, but for slightly different reasons... in 2003 this was a rare bright spot for Plaid as a good candidate cut down the Labour majority to just 2%, despite the Wales-wide swing away from Plaid. But since then Plaid's momentum seems to have dried up in the area... candidate problems mean that the Tories won't be a contender though. Tossup.

Llanelli: The Labour gain here in 2003 was actually quite an upset, but unless Thomas messes up badly she should hold on and even increase her majority (have a look at the kicking Plaid took in the General Election here; despite the retirement of a popular and longserving M.P, the Labour majority actually increased...). Would be foolish to rule out Plaid, but this leans Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Peoples Republic Of South Wales West

Aberavon: Lab hold
Bridgend: Lab hold (but will Carwyn stab Rhodri in the back post-election?)
Gower: Lab hold
Neath: Lab hold
Ogmore: Lab hold
Swansea East: Lab hold
Swansea West: LibDems will be hoping for an upset, but, hey, they came *third* in 2003... Lab hold

South Wales Central

Cardiff Central: LibDem hold
Cardiff North: If the Tories fail to gain it this time, they might as well curl up and die. I think Essex is retiring as well. Leans Con (gain)
Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold
Cardiff West: Lab hold
Cynon Valley: Lab hold
Pontypridd: Lab hold
Rhondda: Lab hold (bearing in mind the whole Burberry thing, it will be interesting to see the size of Andrews's majority)
Vale of Glamorgan: Recent events in the Vale lead me to think that Labour have an excellent chance of hanging on here... leans Lab

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent: I had thought this would at least lean towards Law, but she seems to be rather worried about her re-election chances (despite actually being a competent AM; in stark contrast to Dai Davies's performance as MP... to make an early Westminster prediction, I would be suprised if that lazy dolt doesn't lose his seat...). Labour have picked a female Trade Unionist with strong links to Ebbw Vale (the Lawite stronghold in recent elections). Call it a tossup for now.

Caerphilly: Lab hold
Islwyn: Lab hold
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Lab hold
Monmouth: Con hold
Newport East: Lab hold
Newport West: Lab hold
Torfaen: Lab hold

---
In conclusion, I expect Labour to lose at least two or three FPTP seats, while gaining at least one in return. Note that Labour is notionally down one FPTP seat from 2003 due to boundary changes.
Beyond that, who knows?

Btw, this seat-change-summary seems to be what the Cardiff Media thinks as well... although unlike me, they don't seem to have bothered looking at the list stuff, which will be added here tomorrow.

[afleitch]

A very very small ward map of 'Strathclyde' minus Argyll showing the largest party in each multi-member ward according to notionals. In some seats there is a ties (with a few examples of a differnt party holding all four seats in the ward) and the colours are crosshatched. It's ugly but it does the job for now

(The SNP are in light blue- I can't decide between light blue or 'heather' which the party now seems to use occasionaly. The whole gold for the Libs and Yellow for the SNP is ugly and green is just plain wrong- they are not Plaid (who for some reason also now seem to use yellow :/) )



More maps soon (hopefully)

[afleitch]

Labour MP to defect to SNP according to Sunday Herald.

[minionofmidas]

Labour MP to defect to SNP according to Sunday Herald.

Wait... MP or MSP?

[afleitch]

Labour MP to defect to SNP according to Sunday Herald.

Wait... MP or MSP?

MP apparently - which probably has more weight to it than an MSP defecting

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour MP to defect to SNP according to Sunday Herald.

Wait... MP or MSP?

MP apparently - which probably has more weight to it than an MSP defecting

I don't really think that defections carry much weight at all... in real terms anyway; I still remember meeting people in Herefordshire who had no idea that Peter Temple-Morris was no longer a Tory...

As far the political and media bubble goes, things are different for a few weeks o/c...
That the media out here would take a lot more interest in an MP defecting than an MSP goes without saying, obviously.

Any idea who it might be, btw? There are a few I really wouldn't miss... not naming names o/c.

I note that Scottish Labour has denied the claim; but then all parties in such situtations do that.

[afleitch]

Things seem pretty tight lipped as to who the 'suspect' could be. It has been said the move is more tactical than idological meaning it could be someone in a LAB/SNP marginal seat with the Rt Hon Member for Ochil and S. Perthshire the most obvious. Having said that it seems too obvious...