Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things seem pretty tight lipped as to who the 'suspect' could be. It has been said the move is more tactical than idological meaning it could be someone in a LAB/SNP marginal seat with the Rt Hon Member for Ochil and S. Perthshire the most obvious. Having said that it seems too obvious...

I would have thought much too blatent as well... er... Jim McGovern maybe?

[afleitch]

In other news there is a campaign by Jackson Carlaw (the used car salesman whose business went bust and can never win any election to anything) to oust Goldie from the No1 spot on the West of Scotland List. I got my voting papers through today for the Central Scotland List nomination list that appears to have a few 'crazies' on it who I'll relegate to the bottom Margaret Mitchell the sitting MSP should be, rightfully, safe.

[minionofmidas]

Labour MP to defect to SNP according to Sunday Herald.

Wait... MP or MSP?

MP apparently - which probably has more weight to it than an MSP defecting

I don't really think that defections carry much weight at all... in real terms anyway; I still remember meeting people in Herefordshire who had no idea that Peter Temple-Morris was no longer a Tory...

Then again, he didn't intend to run for reelection, and Labour's majority was gigantic anyways.
Now... a defection by someone who could get reelected, and is running again, in a closeish political climate - that's different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then again, he didn't intend to run for reelection, and Labour's majority was gigantic anyways.

True

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Only in that they have a chance at hanging around in the Commons (or wherever) for a bit longer; o/c most that do that, go chicken-running in a safer seat of their new party.
The trouble with defections is that most people think they're largely for political (rather than principled) reasons; and most of the time they're right about that.

[minionofmidas]

Then again, he didn't intend to run for reelection, and Labour's majority was gigantic anyways.

True

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Only in that they have a chance at hanging around in the Commons (or wherever) for a bit longer; o/c most that do that, go chicken-running in a safer seat of their new party.

Chicken running is boring; I didn't mean that. Think of one of those personal vote LDs joining the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ron Davies is apparently planning yet another comeback (not entirely sure whether as an Independent or as a Forward Wales candidate; makes little difference either way o/c).
It likely won't go very well for him, although I don't think it'll be as embarrassing as his attempt to get into the European Parliament in 2004.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the SNP's proposals for an independent Scotland? What would it be called for a start?

[minionofmidas]

What's the SNP's proposals for an independent Scotland? What would it be called for a start?

"Scotland".

[minionofmidas]

" Will the Queen still be Head of State?

The SNP proposes that the Queen and her successors remain Head of State, in the way that she is presently Head of State in fifteen other independent Commonwealth countries. The constitution which the SNP favours will define the powers of the Monarch, removing a number of her present powers, though she will still confirm Parliament’s nomination of a Prime Minister.

The Queen, in her Scottish capacity, will be constitutionally barred from acting on the advice of her Westminster Ministers.

The Scottish Government will only make such payments as cover the cost of the Queen’s official engagements while she is acting as Scottish Head of State, and will make no contribution to the upkeep of other members of the Royal Family.  The intention would be for the Monarch in Scotland to have a more informal role than has traditionally been the case in the UK.

During periods of absence by the Monarch, the SNP proposes that she be represented by the Chancellor of Scotland, an officer appointed by Parliament, whose role would also encompass that of Parliament’s Presiding Officer.

If, in the future, the people of Scotland wished to change these arrangements, they would be free to do so by amending the constitution through a referendum, and it is the SNP’s policy that the issue should be tested by such a referendum once Independence is fully in effect. Ultimately, the decision rests with the people of Scotland."

Why they're calling it the "Chancellor of Scotland" and not the Governor-General, I have no idea.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the SNP's proposals for an independent Scotland? What would it be called for a start?

"Scotland".

I meant whether it would be called "Kingdom of Scotland", "Commonwealth" etc.

Would they still be in NATO?

[minionofmidas]

What's the SNP's proposals for an independent Scotland? What would it be called for a start?

"Scotland".

I meant whether it would be called "Kingdom of Scotland", "Commonwealth" etc.

I know, I was kidding.

They don't say... of course the logical name given the constitutional structure detailed above would be "Dominion".

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I can go check.

[minionofmidas]

"What about defence?
 
An independent Scotland will be making a number of savings on defence. To start with, we won't be paying for Trident, the UK's nuclear weapons system which is currently based at Faslane on the Firth of Clyde.
In Independence negotiations, the SNP will insist on Trident's phased but complete removal from Scotland.  Apart from being morally and militarily unjustifiable, Trident is also massively expensive.   

A second saving will be in overseas bases, including those in the few remaining UK dependant territories.  These will almost certainly be transferred to the UK's other successor state in Independence negotiations. 

The SNP believe in co-operation in conventional defence. An independent Scotland will inherit a treaty obligation to NATO. However the SNP's opposition to nuclear defence will make the continued participation in nuclear alliances difficult so the SNP propose to negotiate a phased withdrawal from NATO but will retain military co-operation with NATO nations through a variety of international involvements.

The SNP has costed policies for independent armed forces.  Independence negotiations will cover moveable and fixed defence properties, again bearing in mind that these have been paid for in part by Scottish taxpayers.  Scotland's population share of UK armed forces assets, and the assets actually based in Scotland are considerable, including barracks and territorial army bases, RAF bases such as Lossiemouth and Leuchers, defence housing, and naval bases like Faslane.

Scotland already has a long tradition of military service, and all serving military personnel from Scotland - for example those serving in existing Scottish regiments of the British Army - will be given the opportunity to transfer to the Scottish Defence Force. We will preserve the existing regimental structure within the Scottish Defence Force. The SNP proposes that Scottish Defence Forces shift their emphasis from nuclear weapons to conventional defence forces with the resources required in modern peacekeeping exercises. Other small countries have shown the way on this, for instance, since 1956, Finland has placed more than 35,000 peacekeeping troops at the disposal of the UN."

[afleitch]

Scotland would remain a Kingdom, it's current offical title is the Kingdom of Scotland. Constitutionally it is easier to remain with the Queen has head of state, but bear in mind as a Kingdom (and not a Dominion) Scotland would not  have, as Lewis pointed out, a Governor General but another representative of the queen, probably given an old Scottish title (Steward perhaps) A Senate would of course be established. It has been suggested that the 'homeless' Scottish based Westminster MP'S would form an interim Senate until elections too place (A senate of about 50 Senators seems likely)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting little bits from Wales;  the LibDems have essentially abandoned their pledge made a few months ago that they would only go into coalition with a party that would change the electoral system used in local elections, while Tories have been attacking Plaid a lot in recent days (to risk understatement; the words "economic ruin" were used).
Peter Hain's little speech was badly recieved by the media and everyone else, and has not been endorsed (as far as I can tell) by many people in Welsh Labour.

An annoucement on a possible 14 billion defense contract for St Athan (which is in the Vale of Glamorgan) is expected soon.

[afleitch]

Rosier days for Labour in Wales than up here it seems. While canvass returns are strictly confidential ( ) and while we wouldn't possibly consider leaking that information to the SNP it's looking pretty 'double digit swing' bad for Labour across swathes of Lanarkshire. The polls themselves do give a good picture - Labour are performing poorly amongst the D/E class and amongst the over 55's

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An annoucement on a possible 14 billion defense contract for St Athan (which is in the Vale of Glamorgan) is expected soon.

Contract did indeed go to St Athan

[Harry Hayfield]

An annoucement on a possible 14 billion defense contract for St Athan (which is in the Vale of Glamorgan) is expected soon.

Contract did indeed go to St Athan

Vale of Glamorgan Notional Constituency Result 2003 (based on % difference from old Vale of Glamorgan)

Labour 12,105 (44.00%)
Conservatives 9,470 (34.42%)
Plaid Cymru 3,820 (13.89%)
Liberal Democrats 2,085 (7.58%)
Others 30 (0.11%)
Labour majority of 2,635 (9.58%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For some reason a poll has been done of General Election voting intentions in Yorkshire (which shows a double digit Labour lead and a 6pt drop in support for the LibDems from 2005).

[afleitch]

For some reason a poll has been done of General Election voting intentions in Yorkshire (which shows a double digit Labour lead and a 6pt drop in support for the LibDems from 2005).

If I make my fortune, i'll establish a polling company that polls Welsh Assembly voting intention It's getting ridiculous, Scotland gets polled every other week now - I'd at least like a snapshot of what's on the minds of the Welsh electorate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I make my fortune, i'll establish a polling company that polls Welsh Assembly voting intention It's getting ridiculous, Scotland gets polled every other week now - I'd at least like a snapshot of what's on the minds of the Welsh electorate.

Part of the problem is that the accuracy of Welsh polls has traditionally been... somewhat less than great. We'll get one or two when the campaign kicks off formally, though how much faith you should have in them is questionable.
The big question (as far as polls go) is probably whether or not Plaid or the Tories finish second.

[Harry Hayfield]

If I make my fortune, i'll establish a polling company that polls Welsh Assembly voting intention It's getting ridiculous, Scotland gets polled every other week now - I'd at least like a snapshot of what's on the minds of the Welsh electorate.

Part of the problem is that the accuracy of Welsh polls has traditionally been... somewhat less than great. We'll get one or two when the campaign kicks off formally, though how much faith you should have in them is questionable.
The big question (as far as polls go) is probably whether or not Plaid or the Tories finish second.

NOP charge £7,500 for a poll. If you've got that sort of money then commission one

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NOP charge £7,500 for a poll. If you've got that sort of money

I wish!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After being accused (by all the other parties) of being hypocrites over being left a lot of money by some ex-pat rich guy who lived out of Wales (and then foolishly bragging about it) Plaid have had a little hissy-fit and are demanding that only "Welsh money" be used to fight this year's elections.

This hissy-fit was lead by (suprise, suprise) Adam Price.

[afleitch]

Jack McConnell interviewed by the police. Marvellous

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jack McConnell interviewed by the police. Marvellous

As a witness though (and so was Michael Howard a few months ago o/c...)

Not playing guilt by association now are we?

Btw, I'm thinking of writing a letter to a member of the N.E.C calling for a certain Lord and Tennis Partner (originally from Hackney, now residing in Barnet. Mill Hill I think. Mentioning no names o/c) to be expelled (or suspended or whatever) from the Party. Won't serve no purpose except for a second of self-important/vindictive self-gratification, but hey... bastard got us in ghastly debt (and nearly bankrupted us) for f***ing billboards...

Ahem.

In other news today, the Welsh Assembly has voted for free prescriptions for everyone in Wales; Labour and Plaid in favour, Tories and LibDems abstained. I think the Indies were in favour as well.