NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Tender Branson]

My quick analysis of NV:

1st:

Bernie has won a resounding victory there and we must congratulate him on his huge win.

Why was that ?

I think Bernie can send a thank-you-card to the billionaire Michael Bloomberg and some flowers with it. Bloomberg's debate appearance was probably the biggest gift for Bernie that he could have made.

NV has a lot of working class voters (more lesser educated voters than NH), who see the excesses of capitalism first-hand, by working in the services industry in hotels and casinos. They see everyday rich people throwing away their money in casinos, while they have to work their ass off for them. The billionaire Michael Bloomberg has shown them that there is only one candidate with a message to stop these people from buying the Presidency and from excess capitalism: Bernie.

[Florida Man for Crime]

My quick analysis of NV:

1st:

Bernie has won a resounding victory there and we must congratulate him on his huge win.

Why was that ?

You mean it wasn't because of Blaxicans?

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

The ideal scenario would be both Biden and Pete unviable, but alas, that seems to be too much to hope for.

Yea, the DNC needs to change the delegate allocation rules after this election.  It either needs to be state-wide or by district, not both.  As of right now there are too many ways to split delegates and allow f****ery like giving Pete two extra delegates in Iowa because a precinct captain gives the wrong candidate a leftover delegate (because .4 rounds to 1 instead of 0 apparently).  You also have the more obvious problem of over-representing cow pastures vs actual population centers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most up-to-date popular vote results, per CNN (first round / second round):

Bernie 34.4% / 40.6%
Biden 17.5% / 18.7%
Pete 15.9% / 18.1%
Warren 13.2% / 11.7%
Klob 9.7% / 7.3%
Steyer 8.9% / 3.6%

Klobuchar loses surprisingly little from realignment, suggesting that her support is highly concentrated in specific precincts where she does well enough to be viable. By contrast, Steyer's vote is more spread out and he gets obliterated by the threshold.

I guess it makes sense that Bernie gains so much from realignment, given that most transfers come from Warren (who's similar ideologically) and Steyer (who was going for similar demographics). Presumably the Klobuchar transfers are the ones boosting Pete.

[omar04]

Any info or speculation on who the unpledged delegates (12 of them from NV) are leaning towards?

[Dr. Arch]

With this kind of performance, we can assume (with relative confidence) that Bernie is set to do really well in Texas, California, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, alongside the NE, and most of the Midwest, while cutting significantly enough into the South to cancel out whatever Biden/Steyer/Bloomberg would take.

The race seems to be narrowing out fairly quickly.

[Tender Branson]

Any info or speculation on who the unpledged delegates (12 of them from NV) are leaning towards?

Those are usually establishment people.

Biden should have a strong presence among them.

[Tender Branson]

While I'm still supporting Pete of course over the next weeks (he's the solid choice against Trump in the GE), I'm getting more and more accustomed to nominee Bernie each day.



Maybe he can build a movement that is necessary to defeat Trump in November, even though I still have a lot of doubts (could be a 2004-style Kerry loss, or a 2012-style Romney one).

Corbyn didn't lose to Johnson just like that after all ... but you guys chose and have to live with the consequences in such an event.

[Dr. Arch]

While I'm still supporting Pete of course over the next weeks (he's the solid choice against Trump in the GE), I'm getting more and more accustomed to nominee Bernie each day.



Maybe he can build a movement that is necessary to defeat Trump in November, even though I still have a lot of doubts (could be a 2004-style Kerry loss, or a 2012-style Romney one).

[We Live in Black and White]

With this kind of performance, we can assume (with relative confidence) that Bernie is set to do really well in Texas, California, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, alongside the NE, and most of the Midwest, while cutting significantly enough into the South to cancel out whatever Biden/Steyer/Bloomberg would take.

The race seems to be narrowing out fairly quickly.

This should be the major takeaway. Bernie absolutely deep-fried the entire field tonight with Hispanic voters, which pretty much seals the deal for him in Texas and California, literally the two most important delegate sinks in the primary. He's also slowly making inroads with Black voters, meaning that we could absolutely see him knock out the Big White Three in a few vital Southern states, and his bases in New England, Washington, and Oregon speak for themselves.

What we saw tonight was the rooting of the seed of a winning coalition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No update from CNN, NYT or the NVDP itself in a while. I guess we won't be getting any more results tonight.

Oh well. I guess 50% of the results in by midnight is better than 0% of the results in by midnight.

[Tender Branson]

No update from CNN, NYT or the NVDP itself in a while. I guess we won't be getting any more results tonight.

Oh well. I guess 50% of the results in by midnight is better than 0% of the results in by midnight.

Can't wait when we only have primaries now ... those caucuses are awful.

[Shadows]

While I'm still supporting Pete of course over the next weeks (he's the solid choice against Trump in the GE), I'm getting more and more accustomed to nominee Bernie each day.



Maybe he can build a movement that is necessary to defeat Trump in November, even though I still have a lot of doubts (could be a 2004-style Kerry loss, or a 2012-style Romney one).

Bandwagon effect & support for winners. I said time & again if someone wins Iowa, NH & Nevada it will be hard to stop. The media will play the losses & losing candidates will have funds crashing & fundraising is vital for ads in Super Tuesday. There will debate after debate & the losers will have to answer why they shouldn't drop out.

Expect more of this including more elected officials to endorse Bernie if he keeps winning. You will see Chuck Schumer endorse Bernie if it gets down to Bernie & Bloomberg.

[John Dule]

I've not been watching any of the news networks, but if they're portraying this as anything but total domination by Sanders, then they really are a bunch of hacks. I could never have imagined him coming in 20+ points in the lead in Nevada. Biden was the favorite in this state until about a month ago. This was incredibly impressive and it should net him a lot of momentum. Hell, when was the last time someone won all three of the first states in the Democratic primaries? 2004?

[IceSpear]

Remember the countless amount of ink, text, and verbiage that was spread about muh culinary union over the past week?

The pundits are stuck in 1972 for more reasons than just the McGovern comparisons.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Remember the countless amount of ink, text, and verbiage that was spread about muh culinary union over the past week?

The pundits are stuck in 1972 for more reasons than just the McGovern comparisons.

Turns out union workers are human beings with brains and the ability to figure out on their own which candidate actually stands for them, rather than mindless drones to be programmed by their leadership. Shocking!

[IceSpear]

MSDNC is going to displace FOX News as the anti-Bernie pro-GOP network after Bernie beats Trump:

https://twitter.com/ADKustra/status/1231330111275839489

I think it's safe to say that Bernie isn't giving Chris Matthews a tingle up his leg.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

MSDNC is going to displace FOX News as the anti-Bernie pro-GOP network after Bernie beats Trump:

https://twitter.com/ADKustra/status/1231330111275839489

I think it's safe to say that Bernie isn't giving Chris Matthews a tingle up his leg.

Give Chris a break. He's terrified, hearing the German panzers rolling through the Ardennes.

[Hydera]

Chris wants another four years of Trump because he wants the Democratic party to be turned into a middle class party with minorities and progressives being obedient votes. Considering how much the "we'll get a suburban vote for every working class vote that trump takes" bombed in 2016. Im surprised he's allow to rant about Bernie this much in a network that pretends to represent progressives.

[President Johnson]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

That's basically it. He's going to be the nominee.  At that point one of two things happens.  Most likely is he gets destroyed by Trump.  Less likely is that he wins an improbable victory, at which point we have another four years of a populist scam artist as president, except this one won't even have control of Congress.  He will completely fail to achieve any of his policies, 2022 will be a Republican landslide, and we'll lose the White House again in 2024.

It would be nice if we could say, all the damage will be cleared up in 8 years (or even 4 if he dies) but there are two aspects of Sanders' revolution that will cause far more long-term damage.

The first is that he's rebranded our key policies as "socialism."  It's like he's determined to make the Democratic Party as unpopular as possible.  He and AOC are walking, talking stereotypes of what the GOP says our party is.  And it will take a long time to come back from that.  Just like the anti-war movement was never the same after 1968, so too the liberal domestic agenda and welfare state will never be the same after 2020.  Anytime we want to talk about this stuff in the 2030s, Republicans will just be able to point to the Sanders presidency and say "the Democrats just want to do that disaster again."

The second is that he's really, truly warped the minds of the young generation of voters.  So many of my friends think it's totally normal to believe that the Democratic Party is 100% corrupt and standing in the way of progress.  So many of them think Bernie is the only one who can save us, and that it's normal to not vote for any candidate except your savior.  And so many of them believe that things in this country are so much worse than they actually are.  The anger and nihilism are off the charts.  And either way they are going to end up dejected and disillusioned with politics.  Either they lose and think it was all rigged just like in 2016, or they win and eventually have to face the cold hard reality that Bernie has been lying to them and nothing he promised is going to happen.

It's really bad.  There's no sugarcoating it.  This is easily the lowest moment for the Democratic Party in the last 30 years.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Who needs Wisconsin when you can flip Arizona?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

That's basically it. He's going to be the nominee.  At that point one of two things happens.  Most likely is he gets destroyed by Trump.  Less likely is that he wins an improbable victory, at which point we have another four years of a populist scam artist as president, except this one won't even have control of Congress.  He will completely fail to achieve any of his policies, 2022 will be a Republican landslide, and we'll lose the White House again in 2024.

It would be nice if we could say, all the damage will be cleared up in 8 years (or even 4 if he dies) but there are two aspects of Sanders' revolution that will cause far more long-term damage.

The first is that he's rebranded our key policies as "socialism."  It's like he's determined to make the Democratic Party as unpopular as possible.  He and AOC are walking, talking stereotypes of what the GOP says our party is.  And it will take a long time to come back from that.  Just like the anti-war movement was never the same after 1968, so too the liberal domestic agenda and welfare state will never be the same after 2020.  Anytime we want to talk about this stuff in the 2030s, Republicans will just be able to point to the Sanders presidency and say "the Democrats just want to do that disaster again."

The second is that he's really, truly warped the minds of the young generation of voters.  So many of my friends think it's totally normal to believe that the Democratic Party is 100% corrupt and standing in the way of progress.  So many of them think Bernie is the only one who can save us, and that it's normal to not vote for any candidate except your savior.  And so many of them believe that things in this country are so much worse than they actually are.  The anger and nihilism are off the charts.  And either way they are going to end up dejected and disillusioned with politics.  Either they lose and think it was all rigged just like in 2016, or they win and eventually have to face the cold hard reality that Bernie has been lying to them and nothing he promised is going to happen.

It's really bad.  There's no sugarcoating it.  This is easily the lowest moment for the Democratic Party in the last 30 years.

So you post this melodramatic crap all the time and then wonder why you’re one of the most unpopular posters on this website?

[John Dule]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

That's basically it. He's going to be the nominee.  At that point one of two things happens.  Most likely is he gets destroyed by Trump.  Less likely is that he wins an improbable victory, at which point we have another four years of a populist scam artist as president, except this one won't even have control of Congress.  He will completely fail to achieve any of his policies, 2022 will be a Republican landslide, and we'll lose the White House again in 2024.

It would be nice if we could say, all the damage will be cleared up in 8 years (or even 4 if he dies) but there are two aspects of Sanders' revolution that will cause far more long-term damage.

The first is that he's rebranded our key policies as "socialism."  It's like he's determined to make the Democratic Party as unpopular as possible.  He and AOC are walking, talking stereotypes of what the GOP says our party is.  And it will take a long time to come back from that.  Just like the anti-war movement was never the same after 1968, so too the liberal domestic agenda and welfare state will never be the same after 2020.  Anytime we want to talk about this stuff in the 2030s, Republicans will just be able to point to the Sanders presidency and say "the Democrats just want to do that disaster again."

The second is that he's really, truly warped the minds of the young generation of voters.  So many of my friends think it's totally normal to believe that the Democratic Party is 100% corrupt and standing in the way of progress.  So many of them think Bernie is the only one who can save us, and that it's normal to not vote for any candidate except your savior.  And so many of them believe that things in this country are so much worse than they actually are.  The anger and nihilism are off the charts.  And either way they are going to end up dejected and disillusioned with politics.  Either they lose and think it was all rigged just like in 2016, or they win and eventually have to face the cold hard reality that Bernie has been lying to them and nothing he promised is going to happen.

It's really bad.  There's no sugarcoating it.  This is easily the lowest moment for the Democratic Party in the last 30 years.

Don't mince words. Tell us how you really feel.

[DaWN]

Two blatantly obvious points I think

1) The GOP call every Democrat a socialist from Joe Manchin to Ilhan Omar. It is an attack line that is perhaps not as strong as it once was, to put it rather charitably.
2) The GOP essentially spent most of the last decade as a crypto-fascist party and they're doing fine. I would suggest on that basis that a Sanders nomination would not be the end of the world.

Essentially some of you need to get a f!cking grip.