Saskatchewan election 2020

[King of Kensington]

Saw a poll where the PCs were polling at 12%? 

Seems like small-"c" conservative parties can now count on 60% of the vote in Saskatchewan.

[mileslunn]

With recent bombshell on Moe with 2nd DUI that was stayed and also women he killed in traffic accident, do you think this will have any impact?  This was already widely known so I am skeptical, but be interested to see what polls show over this.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doesn't everyone in Saskatchewan have a DUI? :-P I doubt this will push the needle that much. Maybe a bit in the suburbs?

[King of Kensington]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

[mileslunn]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

Saskatchewan has more favourable demographics for parties on right.  More rural, slightly older, quite a bit whiter, percent with a university degree somewhat lower.  So no real surprise.  We are seeing a re-alignment across the globe and Saskatchewan better fits your typical conservative stronghold than Alberta does.  Alberta is 3rd most urban, 3rd most diverse, most educated, and youngest province which are not exactly demographics known for being favourable to conservative ideas.

[adma]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

Saskatchewan has more favourable demographics for parties on right.  More rural, slightly older, quite a bit whiter, percent with a university degree somewhat lower.  So no real surprise.  We are seeing a re-alignment across the globe and Saskatchewan better fits your typical conservative stronghold than Alberta does.  Alberta is 3rd most urban, 3rd most diverse, most educated, and youngest province which are not exactly demographics known for being favourable to conservative ideas.

Still, whether it's enough in the longer term is an open question--after all, Regina & Saskatoon aren't exactly Oklahoma City & Tulsa.  They're still growing, they're still nodes for "NDP viability", etc.  And the Sask Party just happens to have had splendid "grand coalition" leadership; but even when reduced to 9-10 seats, the NDP's maintained a bigger share of legislative representation than opposition parties had most of the time during Alberta's Manning and Lougheed dynasties.  That is, the legacy dies hard.

[mileslunn]

Actually Oklahoma City went Democrat in midterms and if you look at precinct breakdowns for OKC and Tulsa, Democrats dominated inner city parts much like NDP does in Regina and Saskatoon.  Now yes NDP if they have a good showing could pull out to suburbs.  Real problem is 60% live outside two cities and going elsewhere you have two Northern ridings, two Prince Albert and if you really want to stretch it two Moose Jaw ones.  But that still has NDP a bit short.  Off course eventually people will fatigue of Saskatchewan party and go NDP.  Just saying demographics are not favourable there to modern left wing coalitions.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't say that Saskatchewan has replaced Alberta as the Tory bedrock just yet. Alberta still voted 10% more Tory in '15 and 5% more in '19 even with a Sasketchewan based leader. It'll get there, but Alberta is still the Tory hub.

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

Saskatchewan has more favourable demographics for parties on right.  More rural, slightly older, quite a bit whiter, percent with a university degree somewhat lower.  So no real surprise.  We are seeing a re-alignment across the globe and Saskatchewan better fits your typical conservative stronghold than Alberta does.  Alberta is 3rd most urban, 3rd most diverse, most educated, and youngest province which are not exactly demographics known for being favourable to conservative ideas.

Still, whether it's enough in the longer term is an open question--after all, Regina & Saskatoon aren't exactly Oklahoma City & Tulsa.  They're still growing, they're still nodes for "NDP viability", etc.  And the Sask Party just happens to have had splendid "grand coalition" leadership; but even when reduced to 9-10 seats, the NDP's maintained a bigger share of legislative representation than opposition parties had most of the time during Alberta's Manning and Lougheed dynasties.  That is, the legacy dies hard.

There's project for someone... why the SK opposition unified around the NDP vs the Alberta opposition being scatrered all over the place.

[Hatman 🍁]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

If they both had the same number of ridings, this would be relevant. But they don't. If Saskatchewan had the same number of ridings, the NDP would've won a seat in Saskatoon at least, I'm sure.

[King of Kensington]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

True, but in 2019, the orange blob was bigger in Saskatoon than Regina (probably due to the whole Erin Weir situation + Ralph Goodale strength in Wascana). Under normal circumstances, a 34-seat Sasktchewan map would probably produce an NDP seat in both cities, plus maybe one in the north?

[mileslunn]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

True, but in 2019, the orange blob was bigger in Saskatoon than Regina (probably due to the whole Erin Weir situation + Ralph Goodale strength in Wascana). Under normal circumstances, a 34-seat Sasktchewan map would probably produce an NDP seat in both cities, plus maybe one in the north?

I would say Regina is slightly more NDP friendly than Saskatoon due to civil service, although both have universities.  However the gap between two is not as wide as say Edmonton and Calgary.

[adma]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

True, but in 2019, the orange blob was bigger in Saskatoon than Regina (probably due to the whole Erin Weir situation + Ralph Goodale strength in Wascana).

And of course, the riding not represented by either Weir or Goodale was represented by...Andrew Scheer.  (Though the fact of its being "rurban" would probably have made it out of reach, anyway, in the present climate)

[Benjamin Frank]

Finally a new poll. It's a bit tighter.

Sask 58%
NDP 36%
P.C     2%
Green 2%
Liberal 1%
Others 1%

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/11/skpoli-first/

Meilimentum!

Regional breakdown
Regina
Sask 49%
NDP 47%

Saskatoon
Sask 54%
NDP 41%

Rest of Province
Sask 65%
NDP 25%

[mileslunn]

Finally a new poll. It's a bit tighter.

Sask 58%
NDP 36%
P.C     2%
Green 2%
Liberal 1%
Others 1%

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/11/skpoli-first/

Meilimentum!

Regional breakdown
Regina
Sask 49%
NDP 47%

Saskatoon
Sask 54%
NDP 41%

Rest of Province
Sask 65%
NDP 25%

NDP got 37% in 2007 so not bad results but still got a ways to go.  I cannot see NDP realistically winning here so their goal should be to win at least 15 ideally 20 seats which gives them a good base to work from for 2024.

[Benjamin Frank]

Finally a new poll. It's a bit tighter.

Sask 58%
NDP 36%
P.C     2%
Green 2%
Liberal 1%
Others 1%

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/11/skpoli-first/

Meilimentum!

Regional breakdown
Regina
Sask 49%
NDP 47%

Saskatoon
Sask 54%
NDP 41%

Rest of Province
Sask 65%
NDP 25%

NDP got 37% in 2007 so not bad results but still got a ways to go.  I cannot see NDP realistically winning here so their goal should be to win at least 15 ideally 20 seats which gives them a good base to work from for 2024.

I think the NDP is competitive in 24 ridings: 9 in Saskatoon, 9 in Regina and 6 in the rest of the province.  (the 2 Northern ridings and the 4 Moose Jaw and Prince Albert Ridings.)  Based on this poll, they wouldn't win all 24, but maybe the 9 in Regina, 4 in the rest of the province and I don't know how many in Saskatoon.  So, 15 to 20 is a possibility.

[adma]

Finally a new poll. It's a bit tighter.

Sask 58%
NDP 36%
P.C     2%
Green 2%
Liberal 1%
Others 1%

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/11/skpoli-first/

Meilimentum!

Regional breakdown
Regina
Sask 49%
NDP 47%

Saskatoon
Sask 54%
NDP 41%

Rest of Province
Sask 65%
NDP 25%

NDP got 37% in 2007 so not bad results but still got a ways to go.  I cannot see NDP realistically winning here so their goal should be to win at least 15 ideally 20 seats which gives them a good base to work from for 2024.

And the 22-point margin is essentially identical to that btw/ Alberta's UCP and NDP (as incumbent party!) in 2019.

And relative to the NDP reattaining the bottom end of their "old normal": let's also keep in mind how the picture's presently skewed by how Saskatchewan has presently become the most electorally "binary" province--that is, the Sask Party tally feasting off how both the provincial Libs and Cons have been reduced to fringe forces (when it comes to their big tent, how would Ralph Goodale vote provincially?), while the NDP's eternal bankable viability has preempted any real Green momentum as an alternate left-option.  And re the Buffalo Party: my hunch is that Sask just doesn't get into that breakaway Western separatism thing the way Alberta does...

[DC Al Fine]

I see the PC's are running thirty candidates. What's the story there? I thought they just ran a few paper candidates each election to keep the party alive and maintain access to old PC funds...

[MaxQue]

I see the PC's are running thirty candidates. What's the story there? I thought they just ran a few paper candidates each election to keep the party alive and maintain access to old PC funds...

They revived and ran 18 last time. They say they are standing against the high spending and Sask Party betrayal of the oil and gas industry.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the PC's are running thirty candidates. What's the story there? I thought they just ran a few paper candidates each election to keep the party alive and maintain access to old PC funds...

they are running as the "Progressive  Conservative" Party. And their logo is "CP", not PC.

[Jeppe]

My guess is that the NDP is headed towards winning Regina for the first time since 2007.

I'd wager the NDP can win the following seats on a very good night (in order of safest to least safest)
1. Cumberland
2. Athabasca
3. Regina Lakeview
4. Saskatoon Nutana
5. Regina Elphinstone-Centre
6. Saskatoon Centre
7. Regina Rosemont
8. Saskatoon Riversdale
9. Regina Douglas Park
10. Saskatoon Fairview
11. Prince Albert Northcote
12. Saskatoon Meewasin
13. Regina Northeast
14. Saskatoon Westview
15. Regina Coronation Park
16. Saskatoon University
17. Regina University
18. Regina Pasqua
19. Saskatoon Eastview
20. Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood
21. Moose Jaw Wakamow
22. Prince Albert Carlton
23. Regina Walsh Acres


and that is probably where the list of plausible pickups end. After that, they'd have to compete in some very difficult seats.

24. Regina Rochdale
25. Regina Gardiner Park
26. Moose Jaw North

If the Saskatchewan NDP had an excellent night, they might win one or more the 3 seats, but after that, they'd have to either crack the outer Saskatoon suburbs and/or start competing in historically friendly rural seats like Saskatchewan Rivers and Batoche.

[Benjamin Frank]

Angus Reid poll October 8-13, obviously pre-debate.

(Too) obvious line:  Moe-mentum!

Sask: 60%
NDP: 33
Others 7

Regional
Greater Regina
Sask: 46%
NDP: 46%

Greater Saskatoon
Sask: 52
NDP 42

Rest of Province
Sask: 70
NDP: 23

All large margin of error for the regions, but consistent with other polling and previous elections
http://angusreid.org/saskatchewan-election-2020/

[mileslunn]

While not over yet, seems 2020 elections look like they've been good news for incumbents and bad news for opponents.  Higgs already got his majority, Horgan likely will in 9 days and Moe likely wins a landslide in 11 days.  So wondering if the polls are accurate if that makes Trudeau want to find a way to go sooner than later.

[DL]

While not over yet, seems 2020 elections look like they've been good news for incumbents and bad news for opponents.  Higgs already got his majority, Horgan likely will in 9 days and Moe likely wins a landslide in 11 days.  So wondering if the polls are accurate if that makes Trudeau want to find a way to go sooner than later.

The window for a federal election this fall is now closed and by the time it reopens in the Spring when the Trudeau government will present the next budget - who knows what the state of public opinion will be

[DL]

Its election day tomorrow and there has been remarkably little polling - but Mainstreet was out with a final poll today that has it Sask Party 55% and NDP 37% - with the NDP leading in Regina and slightlly behind in Saskatoon.

Given that in 2016 the Sask Party beat the NDP by 30 points - if the gap narrows to 18 points - the NDP could very well gets its seat count into the high teens - which would be a sign of progress.