Saskatchewan election 2020

[mileslunn]

No polls in almost a year and so tough to know for sure where things are at, but it will be held on October 26, 2020.  Considering how unpopular Trudeau is in Saskatchewan and Moe's approval rating, I think smart money is on the Saskatchewan Party being re-elected.  Nonetheless I do think the NDP if they play their cards right has a chance to dominate the two main cities so I could easily see them getting over 20 seats, but Saskatchewan is much more rural than other provinces so you cannot form government by just winning cities.

[Epaminondas]

The Wyoming of Canada.

One party domination of SK is unreal here.
Safe supermajority and 51 of 61 seats in last election.

[DistingFlyer]

No polls in almost a year and so tough to know for sure where things are at, but it will be held on October 26, 2020.  Considering how unpopular Trudeau is in Saskatchewan and Moe's approval rating, I think smart money is on the Saskatchewan Party being re-elected.  Nonetheless I do think the NDP if they play their cards right has a chance to dominate the two main cities so I could easily see them getting over 20 seats, but Saskatchewan is much more rural than other provinces so you cannot form government by just winning cities.

Possibly; the last election saw a swing to the NDP in the urban ridings, and a swing away from them in the rural ones. The NDP brand has probably taken some damage from the Erin Weir affair and the federal leader's reaction to it, so I'd still be surprised if they made many gains. We shall see.

I should also add that, by sweeping the big cities and getting a token rural presence, the NDP did manage to squeak into government in 1999 & 2003. While dominating the cities isn't itself enough to win, it will get you pretty close (similar to neighboring Manitoba, I suppose, where the NDP's winning formula has been winning heavily in Winnipeg as well as the rural North). Prior to those elections, the NDP had done very well in provincial politics by keeping a strong rural presence as well as their urban base, though that seems to have disappeared over these last twenty years.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The Wyoming of Canada.

One party domination of SK is unreal here.
Safe supermajority and 51 of 61 seats in last election.

idk if you could call it that, did anyone from Wyoming start the US's healthcare system?

[adma]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

[CumbrianLefty]

What actually happened to the NDP's historic strength here?

[Flyersfan232]

The Wyoming of Canada.

One party domination of SK is unreal here.
Safe supermajority and 51 of 61 seats in last election.

So right wing Hawaii?

[Flyersfan232]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

What about a right wing Hawaii?

[Flyersfan232]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

And didn’t a Dakotas government once served in the province goverment?

[Estrella]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

And didn’t a Dakotas government once served in the province goverment?

I'm not sure if this is what you mean, but even though Nonpartisan League (a farmers' protest movement that started in North Dakota) did expand into Canadian Prairies in the 1910s, it didn't last very long, didn't get into government anywhere and its members went on to join the Progressives, UFA, Social Credit and CCF.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What actually happened to the NDP's historic strength here?

Well they are still the only credible opposition party and will presumably return to power some day. You know how Canadian voters are

But the thing to understand is that Saskatchewan used to have extremely polarised politics and now it doesn't and the NDP not quite yet managed to adjust. Although the Saskatchewan CCF (and then NDP) was consistently the most moderate of the provincial parties (very Fabian, actually), even a moderate socialist party is considerably more radical than the most radical liberal party. Against this, the designated anti-socialist party in the province (the label changed - Liberals in the 1960s, PCs by the 1980s - but the politics didn't) was always amongst the most right-wing of major Canadian provincial political parties.

This system held from the 1940s until the 1990s, when the last PC government collapsed in a welter of corruption scandals,* gross economic mismanagement and heinous administrative incompetence. The NDP then spent the next sixteen years cleaning things up. They did a good job, as they always do, but they had little choice but to make some very unpopular decisions along the way that tarnished their inherited reputation somewhat. Meanwhile, the province's opposition forces around a new label, the Saskatchewan Party. At first it was very right-wing and the NDP were able to beat it off in the old fashioned way a couple of times, but it then did something new: it swung towards a sort of populist middle, promising not to dismantle the province's social democratic legacy while also promising low taxes. In office it has been able to get away with doing this because of the oil boom.

Against this the NDP have struggled, but they've made it worse for themselves by running some diabolically poor election campaigns; tone-deaf barely covers it. They ought to have made solid progress last time round, for instance, but managed to make such a mess of the campaign that yet again...

_{*Really bad stuff as well. Most of their leading figures, including ex-Premier Grant Devine, ended up in prison.}

[mileslunn]

I think problem with NDP is historically, class was main dividing point and Saskatchewan until oil and potash boom was a poorer province than most as well as many people voted a certain way just because their family always did, but those days long gone.  Only 40% of Saskatchewan residents live in Regina and Saskatoon and not just in Saskatchewan but across Canada and English speaking world, parties on left are no longer winning in urban areas under 100,000 or rural areas.  In most provinces, sweeping the over 100,000 urban areas is enough but not in Saskatchewan.  Never mind Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities so more open to voting NDP than rest of province but not off limits to Saskatchewan Party the way urban cores of larger cities are for parties on right.

[adma]

Actually, the cities still have their "left inherency"--the real story, as in so much of the West (or the world in general) is urban-rural electoral sorting; so that the NDP is now almost exclusively a Regina/Saskatoon/far-north party and the Sask Party now gets Soviet margins in the rural parts which once might have been more marginal or even outright "Agrarian Socialist".

It's why the NDP was reduced to 9 seats on a 54-37% margin in 1982, but it took an over 2:1 margin to bottom out at a similar level the last two elections--in 1982, the vote was much more "spread out"...

[DistingFlyer]

_{*Really bad stuff as well. Most of their leading figures, including ex-Premier Grant Devine, ended up in prison.}

Actually he didn't (and is generally considered not to have been part of the various schemes that went on), though Hopfner, MacLaren and others did. Worst of all, backbench MLA Jack Wolfe, who was definitely not a part of what had been happening, ended up committing suicide when it looked like he might get swept up in the charges anyway.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

What's Alberta's US analogue?

Interestingly the Alberta NDP has pretty much become the Saskatchewan NDP, but better positioned perhaps given that it is a more urban province.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

What's Alberta's US analogue?

Interestingly the Alberta NDP has pretty much become the Saskatchewan NDP, but better positioned perhaps given that it is a more urban province.

Alberta has far more favourable demographics for left.  More urban, larger university educated population, more diverse.  Main problem for left in Alberta is federal counterparts are seen as anti-energy which is main economic driver there.  I actually think Notley would have a much better chance in 2023 if she changed party name and totally delinked with all federal parties as UCP's main card is they are only party who will stand up for Alberta against hostile feds.

That being said on Saskatchewan, COVID-19 is helping most premiers, save Kenney (who now has lowest approval rating, even Ford is doing better, but has seen major bounce) so I think unless something dramatic happens Moe gets back in.  Only good thing for Meili is being a doctor might work to his advantage since health care has become such a big issue.  Not enough to win likely, but still if there was ever time where being a former doctor and running for office was advantageous it is now.

[mileslunn]

Election coming up but what few polls show Saskatchewan Party with a 25-30 point lead so seems a snoozer as past few have been.  Barring any major changes, Moe likely gets re-elected, still I think real area to watch is two main cities.  If NDP wants to win in 2024, they should try and win back their urban ridings as that gives them a good base to build off of.

On other hand recent polls suggest Saskatchewan Party is ahead in both Regina and Saskatoon but not an insurmountable lead like province wide.  Rural Saskatchewan nowadays seems to be blowouts for both Tories federally and Saskatchewan Party provincially.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is when writ must be dropped and unlike BC which is shaping up to be semi-competitive, this looks like a snoozer.  Yes things could tighten but barring something dramatic, cannot see NDP pulling off a win here.  For NDP their goal should be to win most of Regina, take most of Saskatoon save the east end where Saskatchewan party tends to get comparable margins to rural areas (I believe this is the most affluent part of city, so probably like fact SK party will keep taxes low), win two Prince Albert seats, hold two Northern seats (which they will), and if really lucky maybe win one Moose Jaw seat but that is probably a stretch.

I think If Meili can get over 20 seats, he will get another kick at the can in 2024 when Saskatchewan party will have been in power for 17 years thus strong desire for change.  If 15-20 seats maybe he stays on, while if under 15 seats (which is what polls suggest at moment) he is gone.  Either way NDP needs to find a way to appeal beyond urban areas and not sure how.  It seems with few exceptions, there are very few left wing parties anywhere that are able to win in rural areas.  Even in US, Biden will likely win fewer counties than Mondale did in 1984.  He only is on track to win, possibly a landslide due to dominance in metropolitan counties.  Ditto UK.  If Labour wins in 2024, it will mean winning several traditional Tory constituencies in London and London commuter belt.  The urban or semi-urban Red wall seats they would win back, but rural ones likely gone for good.

Heck even in BC, I am betting BC Liberals hold most if not all of the interior ridings they currently hold.  If NDP gets a majority there, it will be by running the board in Lower Mainland and picking off not just swing ridings, but some historically safe BC Liberal ridings like Richmond-Queensborough, Surrey-Cloverdale, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Vancouver-False Creek, North Vancouver-Seymour, and Vancouver-Langara, which a decade ago where ones BC Liberals would win by 20-30 points.  Thus NDP needs to find a way to win in smaller towns and rural areas and I cannot think of any left wing party in last decade who has managed to do this.  Maybe Ardern will in New Zealand on October 17th, but unlikely she holds those in 2023 so more a unique circumstance.  Such meaning if NDP does win, it will be due to Saskatchewan party becoming so unpopular, but tough to hold beyond one cycle.

[DL]

The Ontario NDP wins lots of rural seats in northern Ontario and the BC NDP seems good at winning rural seats on Vancouver island and along the coast. They could easily gain Skeena and Fraser Nicola too

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, even if the NDP doubled its seat count in Regina and Saskatoon they'd still be well behind.  Saskatchewan has become a very conservative province.  

To win province-wide at this point, the NDP would basically have to sweep Regina and Saskatoon like they did in 1999, or vote like Edmonton did in the 2015 Alberta election (Edmonton seems to be the "big sister" to both).

[King of Kensington]

The Ontario NDP wins lots of rural seats in northern Ontario and the BC NDP seems good at winning rural seats on Vancouver island and along the coast. They could easily gain Skeena and Fraser Nicola too

In other words, non-agrarian rural seats.  These are seats with a history of industrial unionism.

[Oryxslayer]

The Ontario NDP wins lots of rural seats in northern Ontario and the BC NDP seems good at winning rural seats on Vancouver island and along the coast. They could easily gain Skeena and Fraser Nicola too

In other words, non-agrarian rural seats.  These are seats with a history of industrial unionism.

Or minorities, in this cases, Indigenous First-Nations natives in some parts of Canada's rural north.

[King of Kensington]

Yes the NDP does very well with First Nations voters.

[mileslunn]

Cumberland and Athabasca, otherwise two seats with a First Nations' majority are only two rural seats I can see NDP winning and ironically those were their two best seats in 2016 and may well be again.  South of that, all NDP seats I expect to be urban.  Maybe smaller urban as I could see them winning one or both of the Prince Albert seats.  A Moose Jaw seat possible but much more difficult.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, how many places does the centre left do well in agrarian rural areas? The Liberals do well in the Annapolis Valley and PEI and the Acadien bits of NB... and that's all I can think of.