Saskatchewan election 2020

[StateBoiler]

The new Buffalo Party. Ran in 17 seats.

The Green Party. Ran in 60 seats.

Buffalo Party had more total votes.

[DC Al Fine]

It's looking like the NDP's got a more ambivalent result than "live another day" (and if Meili loses his seat, there goes the "premier in waiting" cast)

But even so, the one thing standing against declaring the NDP "dead" is: what's the alternative?  Basically, with the near-disappearance of the Sask Libs and the near-irrelevance of the Sask Greens, they have the viable left-of-Sask vote park advantage all to themselves--and treading water at 10 seats per election might not be great, but it at least keeps *some* kind of electoral pump primed.

Their problem is, they've yet to hit upon a compelling Notley/Horgan figurehead, and the Sask Party has had too steady a hand on the tiller.  And maybe re the "left wing socialist approach" comment below, they still have a bit of an identity crisis, where whatever vestige of Romanow "natural governing party" pragmatism coexists rather uneasily with the modern-day left-of-centre urge to be "woke".

And yes, Regina/Saskatoon are growing--but the elements there that are growing might be categorized as "Scheer suburbs", which at least for the meantime cancels out the impulse to veer left.

So if Saskatchewan is taking over Alberta's heartland-of-conservativism mantle, it might be through being the Abbotsford to Alberta's Greater Vancouver, or the Erin O'Toole's Clarington to the GTA.  A bit more peripheral, a bit sleepier, a bit less "cosmopolitan", etc...

I think that's the main issue for the NDP. Before the election, the consensus here was that the NDP's path to victory was: North + sweep Saskatoon/Regina + small cities. The problem is that there are about half a dozen seats with Saskatoon or Regina in their name that vote SK Party approximately at or above the provincial SK Party vote, to say nothing of the smaller cities. Saskatchewan clearly isn't experiencing the urban right wing lock out effect that we see in say, the GTA.

To win, the NDP is going to have to better appeal to those right leaning suburban and small town ridings or, actually win in the rural prairies (heh).

[CumbrianLefty]

In retrospect, I probably should have guessed that Meili wouldn't get very far based on the fact that Canadian political Reddit seemed to like him long before he became leader.

Reddit just makes me laugh tbh (on almost anything)

[MaxQue]

Saskatchewan started counting postal votes today, with 16 tables.
They will start with the closest ridings and report twice a day.

They expect the whole procedure will take 3 days.

[adma]

To win, the NDP is going to have to better appeal to those right leaning suburban and small town ridings or, actually win in the rural prairies (heh).

Notley-type leadership could do that--and when all is said and done, Regina/Saskatoon are more akin to Edmonton than Calgary.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/davidbaxter_/status/1321576681371541509?s=20

I mean the night was still bad for the NDP, maybe it just wasn't as bad.

[Benjamin Frank]

I won't post the math here, but one interesting thing is if the postal ballots are dispersed by region, so calculating all the outstanding postal ballots in Saskatoon as being the same percentages as the present counted votes in Saskatoon and so on, the total share of the vote for each party goes from

Sask 63.2%
NDP 29.2%

to
Sask 62.3%
NDP 30.1%

the results in 2016 were
Sask 62.3%
NDP 30.2%

So, were that how the postal votes go, the popular vote would be virtually the exact same as in 2016.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

Their poll ratings crashed back down to what has been the usual sad range almost as soon as he became leader and it isn't as if it is normal for the Sask NDP to be led from its left so there might even be something to that. Of course the 'normal' approach failed horribly nine years ago, but then it could be argued that was down to its deathly dull execution and the bad luck of trying it against Wall's remarkable honeymoon period rather than the approach itself. Other than the obvious, the most striking feature of recent provincial elections in Saskatchewan has been low turnouts (by Saskatchewan standards, at least) and it seems reasonable to suggest that an increase back to what was normal would be beneficial to the NDP. But the party needs to seem credible, else the sort of voters in question (it is very clear) just won't bother.

[Benjamin Frank]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

Their poll ratings crashed back down to what has been the usual sad range almost as soon as he became leader and it isn't as if it is normal for the Sask NDP to be led from its left so there might even be something to that. Of course the 'normal' approach failed horribly nine years ago, but then it could be argued that was down to its deathly dull execution and the bad luck of trying it against Wall's remarkable honeymoon period rather than the approach itself. Other than the obvious, the most striking feature of recent provincial elections in Saskatchewan has been low turnouts (by Saskatchewan standards, at least) and it seems reasonable to suggest that an increase back to what was normal would be beneficial to the NDP. But the party needs to seem credible, else the sort of voters in question (it is very clear) just won't bother.

I thought the problem in 2011 was that Lingenfelter was seen as being on the right of the party, but that he campaigned on the left, so that there was something of a credibility problem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought the problem in 2011 was that Lingenfelter was seen as being on the right of the party, but that he campaigned on the left, so that there was something of a credibility problem.

I think he was genuinely stuck at how to campaign against an incumbent conservative government that was relatively moderate rather than frankly feral, and tried to press left-populist buttons in an incredibly unconvincing way out of desperation - which, of course, pleased exactly no one.

[MaxQue]

Saskatchewan started counting postal votes today, with 16 tables.
They will start with the closest ridings and report twice a day.

They expect the whole procedure will take 3 days.

Of the 8 ridings CBC didn't call on election night, 6 counted today. (in total, 31 ridings were done today, 25 left).
Only one changed hands, Saskatoon Meewasin, the seat of Ryan Melli, the NDP leader went from a SP lead of 83 votes to an NDP lead of 209 votes.

Still waiting on Regina University and Regina Pasqua.

[politicallefty]

I'll admit I don't much about Saskatchewan provincial politics, but the margins in these last few elections have been rather insane (even for a province that seems to lurching hard-right in federal elections). I'm assuming that the Saskatchewan Party hasn't been governing too far to the right. If that's the case and they're governing more in the centre/centre-right area, they could hold power indefinitely so long as they don't succumb to obvious corruption. Historically speaking, some parties have held power uninterrupted for decades in various provinces. Even Alberta in 2015 required a near perfect storm of circumstances. I don't imagine there's a Wildrose analogue in Saskatchewan waiting to split the right, at least not anywhere in the near future.

On a side note, it's always kind of annoyed me how the main centre-right party calls itself the Saskatchewan Party.

[adma]

I don't imagine there's a Wildrose analogue in Saskatchewan waiting to split the right, at least not anywhere in the near future.

There's Buffalo's rural gains and second-places; but that's more akin to the earlier days of Wildrose, and before that entities such as WCC and various Alberta Socred reboot attempts.

But on the whole, unlike the one-party-stateness of Lougheed-era Alberta, Saskatchewan does still have one, single, clear viable opposition force (the NDP), and urban-rural electoral sorting has made that one-clear-optionness all the clearer.  (From Klein onwards in Alta, things are more clearly binary: the Liberals for a quarter century, and now the NDP).

[Hatman 🍁]

All polls reporting

The Sask Party is now up 50-11 in seats, with Meili personally trailing.

Unless rescued by the mail in ballots, Meili's left wing socialist approach has to be considered a complete failure.

Their poll ratings crashed back down to what has been the usual sad range almost as soon as he became leader

Well, Meili and Moe became leaders around the same time, so that poll crash could just as well be attributed to Moe's honeymoon. Meili did win a by-election in a Sask Party seat, so voters in Meewasin at least weren't turned off by him.

[StateBoiler]

I don't imagine there's a Wildrose analogue in Saskatchewan waiting to split the right, at least not anywhere in the near future.

There's Buffalo's rural gains and second-places; but that's more akin to the earlier days of Wildrose, and before that entities such as WCC and various Alberta Socred reboot attempts.

But on the whole, unlike the one-party-stateness of Lougheed-era Alberta, Saskatchewan does still have one, single, clear viable opposition force (the NDP), and urban-rural electoral sorting has made that one-clear-optionness all the clearer.  (From Klein onwards in Alta, things are more clearly binary: the Liberals for a quarter century, and now the NDP).

What's the numbers in the NDP's 31st-best district which would need to flip for them to gain power, or how far are they back?

[DistingFlyer]

Meili has taken a lead of 200-odd in Meewasin now, bringing the NDP up to 12 MLAs. No other close seats have flipped so far.

[Jeppe]

Trent Wotherspoon, Meili’s challenger in the last leadership race posted this on Facebook the day after the election.

“A full day running many miles while pulling signs while sorting through yesterday’s outcome - an incredibly disappointing result for Saskatchewan New Democrats and the many inspiring, selfless, tireless candidates that put their hearts and souls into their service.”

While Meili has been saying that the results were good(?!) and that he’ll stay on as leader, a good portion of his caucus and the membership will probably disagree.

[DL]

Trent Wotherspoon, Meili’s challenger in the last leadership race posted this on Facebook the day after the election.

“A full day running many miles while pulling signs while sorting through yesterday’s outcome - an incredibly disappointing result for Saskatchewan New Democrats and the many inspiring, selfless, tireless candidates that put their hearts and souls into their service.”

While Meili has been saying that the results were good(?!) and that he’ll stay on as leader, a good portion of his caucus and the membership will probably disagree.

I'm not so sure about that...first of all i have not heard Meili say the results were "good" - though I'm sure he is hapy to have won his own seat. As for the caucus, there has been a fait amount of turnover from retirements and new seats won and old seats lost so now almost all the caucus members were either first elected this year or were first elected in 2016 and would be less "old guard". I doubt if there is much appetite in the Sask NDP to switch leaders yet again - at some point you have to stick with something. They went old guard centrist in 2011 with Dwayne Lingenfelter the oil company VP from Calgary and were crushed. They went old guard centrist with a younger face in 2016 with Cam Broten and were crushed. so its not as if the Sask NDP has done better with leaders from other factions/tendencies in the party.

[Jeppe]

The NDP has flipped Regina-University with the mail-in ballots. The Sask Party initially led by almost 200 votes but now the NDP is leading by slightly over 200 votes. Aleana Young, the new MLA, gave birth the day before the election and unseated a prominent cabinet minister right after.

Probably the “biggest” victory for the NDP in years.

[Hatman 🍁]

With the mail in ballots so far, the NDP now has a positive swing in the popular vote from 2016. It will likely continue to climb, as the only ridings left to count (save Wood River) are in Regina or Saskatoon. Only one race left that is undecided, Regina Pasqua, but I think the NDP needs to get 65%+ on the mail ins to get it.

[Njall]

With the mail in ballots so far, the NDP now has a positive swing in the popular vote from 2016. It will likely continue to climb, as the only ridings left to count (save Wood River) are in Regina or Saskatoon. Only one race left that is undecided, Regina Pasqua, but I think the NDP needs to get 65%+ on the mail ins to get it.

It looks like they got about 62% of the mail-in vote in Regina University, so it’s an outside chance, but not impossible

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did not pick up Pasqua, so 48-13 will be the final seat totals.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the latest final tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (53.0%)
NDP: 6 (43.7%)
3.9% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.3%)
NDP: 5 (45.9%)
2.4% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, The Battlefords & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (52.8%)
NDP: 11 (42.4%)
2.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.4%)
NDP: 2 (18.7%)
0.1% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen a 2.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.1% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 1.5% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

NOTE: Have edited the above figures as counting has progressed; now current to 30 Oct 7 Nov.

[Benjamin Frank]

With the mail in ballots so far, the NDP now has a positive swing in the popular vote from 2016. It will likely continue to climb, as the only ridings left to count (save Wood River) are in Regina or Saskatoon. Only one race left that is undecided, Regina Pasqua, but I think the NDP needs to get 65%+ on the mail ins to get it.

If the Saskatchewan NDP continue to gain ridings at the count of 3 per election, in just six more elections they'll win 31-30.

[DistingFlyer]

A few more stats:

Sask Party
Average Majority (num): 2953 (highest ever)
Average Majority (%): 39.3% (lower than 2016, higher than other years)
Largest Majority (num): 5328 in Wood River (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
Largest Majority (%): 71.1% in Lloydminster (lower than 2016, higher than other years)
Average Vote (%): 66.3% (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
Largest Vote (%): 82.8% in Wood River (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
% of Constituencies won by >25%: 36 (one fewer than 2016, more than other years)

NDP
Average Majority (num): 1184 (higher than 2011-2016, lower than every other election since 1982)
Average Majority (%): 20.5% (higher than 2007-2016, lower than every other election since 1982)
Largest Majority (num): 2545 in Regina Lakeview (highest since 2003)
Largest Majority (%): 35.8% in Cumberland (higher than 2011, lower than every other election from 1971 on)
Average Vote (%): 57.8% (highest ever)
Largest Vote (%): 66.5% in Cumberland (highest since 2003)
% of Constituencies won by >25%: 5 (highest since 2007)


NOTE: Have edited the above figures as counting has progressed; now current to 30 Oct 7 Nov.