Saskatchewan election 2020

[DL]

I don't think there is much of an urban rural split in Scandinavia and there are some very rural areas of France and Spain and Portugal that still vote left - in fact the Alentejo region of rural Portugal remains a Communist stronghold to this day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean the last two elections the Saskatchewan NDP won saw them poll rather poorly in the countryside. They won those elections because they dominated in the urban parts of the province, which, by the way, now contain a majority of its population. They could definitely do with polling better in the countryside, but they also need to poll a lot better in the cities: their current malaise is province-wide, rather than being a countryside problem.

Ditto UK.  If Labour wins in 2024, it will mean winning several traditional Tory constituencies in London and London commuter belt.  The urban or semi-urban Red wall seats they would win back, but rural ones likely gone for good.

The only constituencies that Labour lost last year that are 'rural' in the sense that much of Saskatchewan is would be Ynys Môn and Stroud, and even then they are quite different. And there's no seat that Labour lost last year that it is implausible to see Labour ever regaining, especially as Labour is most unlikely to ever again go into an election with its image and priorities largely being shaped by the legacy of the (actually pretty old now!) New Urban Left. Not that this has much bearing on the politics of Saskatchewan.

[mileslunn]

I don't think there is much of an urban rural split in Scandinavia and there are some very rural areas of France and Spain and Portugal that still vote left - in fact the Alentejo region of rural Portugal remains a Communist stronghold to this day.

Scandinavia is a lot like Ontario and Manitoba as yes Centre Party who is sort of a rural version of our Liberals does well in rural areas, but Greens and Left are very urban.  Social Democratic party in southern parts where most agriculture is and all of Denmark tend to be largely confined to urban areas.  They do however in Norway, Finland, and Sweden do really well in the northern rural parts, but not southern rural parts, so otherwise not the rural Agrarian parts.  In a lot of ways comparable to Manitoba and Ontario where NDP does well in northern parts, but poorly in rural southern parts.

In Portugal that is true, but Alentejo an anomaly there and a few others exist.  For Spain, there are a few rural areas that vote left, but the trend is rightward while right wing urban areas like Valencia and Madrid, trend is leftward even if they have not flipped yet.

To every rule you can find a few exceptions, but overall rural areas which left does well in are becoming less and less common around the globe and its more a timing.  Some like Saskatchewan moved away from left sooner than others did. 

[DL]

The decline of the NDP in rural Saskatchewan is parallel to the decline of the Democrats in the Dakotas and rural Minnesota. Once a upon a time South Dakota elected George McGovern to the US senate and North Dakota elected a lot of socialists in the depression etc... but that would never happen now. Minnesota leans Democratic because the Twin Cities are such a big part of the population (like what Winnipeg is to Manitoba). In the long run I'd rather be a party whose base is in the cities and suburbs - which are steadily growing in population, then be a party whose base in depopulated and shriking rural areas...

[mileslunn]

The decline of the NDP in rural Saskatchewan is parallel to the decline of the Democrats in the Dakotas and rural Minnesota. Once a upon a time South Dakota elected George McGovern to the US senate and North Dakota elected a lot of socialists in the depression etc... but that would never happen now. Minnesota leans Democratic because the Twin Cities are such a big part of the population (like what Winnipeg is to Manitoba). In the long run I'd rather be a party whose base is in the cities and suburbs - which are steadily growing in population, then be a party whose base in depopulated and shriking rural areas...

In most provinces that works, but Saskatchewan is a lot more rural than most provinces.  In Manitoba you can win by just sweeping Winnipeg but cannot in Saskatchewan by sweeping Regina and Saskatoon.  In Ontario, most elections since 2000 at both levels have seen Tories sweep rural Southern Ontario but few in urban ridings thus only around 1/4 to a 1/3 of seats.  Only in 2011 and 2018 provincially when they broke into suburbs could they win.  BC similar as NDP could easily get 50 seats by running the board of seats west of the Surrey/Langley border and only win a handful east of that.  In Alberta, if Notley wins in 2023 which is a long shot, it would be by sweeping Edmonton and winning vast majority of seats in Calgary while rural Alberta is a UCP lock.

So in most provinces and nationally you are bang on and ditto in US, UK, and Australia, but in Saskatchewan being more rural won't work.  Sort of like how Iowa used to go blue, but recent sorting means it will likely be tough for Democrats to win in future.  But at same time, Texas which is quite urban is now in play thus a pretty good trade off.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP could get a majority if it literally swept every urban seat, plus won the 2 far north ridings:

2 far north +
13 in Saskatoon +
12 in Regina +
2 in Moose Jaw +
2 in Prince Albert
3 in smaller cities (Swift Current, Yorkton, the Battlefords)

That gives you 33 seats, a bare majority

Of course, winning some of those seats requires huge swings. Take Yorkton for example, which has voted for the winning party in every election since 1964, making it the province's best bellwether. The Sask Party won it in 2016 by 50 points.

[mileslunn]

The NDP could get a majority if it literally swept every urban seat, plus won the 2 far north ridings:

2 far north +
13 in Saskatoon +
12 in Regina +
2 in Moose Jaw +
2 in Prince Albert
3 in smaller cities (Swift Current, Yorkton, the Battlefords)

That gives you 33 seats, a bare majority

Of course, winning some of those seats requires huge swings. Take Yorkton for example, which has voted for the winning party in every election since 1964, making it the province's best bellwether. The Sask Party won it in 2016 by 50 points.

Also it seems in Canada, urban areas over 100,000 is the typical tipping point.  Yorkton and Swift Current are pretty small and if you look at cities with similar size in Ontario, they tend to always vote Tory even in bad elections, like Tilsonburg, Pembroke, Brockville etc.

That being said if NDP were to win, it would probably be through such path.

[adma]

Yeah, how many places does the centre left do well in agrarian rural areas? The Liberals do well in the Annapolis Valley and PEI and the Acadien bits of NB... and that's all I can think of.

Though qualified by the McNeil factor in NS--and it's the rural areas which tipped PEI in the Tory direction last provincial election.

[adma]

So in most provinces and nationally you are bang on and ditto in US, UK, and Australia, but in Saskatchewan being more rural won't work.  Sort of like how Iowa used to go blue, but recent sorting means it will likely be tough for Democrats to win in future.  But at same time, Texas which is quite urban is now in play thus a pretty good trade off.

Though hard to tell with Iowa--after all, it gave 3/4 of its congressional delegation to the Dems in 2018 (and the controversy over Steve King almost made it a clean sweep).  And even there, it might be argued that even if the rural parts become increasingly GOP, the *longer term* sorting still works in the centre/left's favour because of the growth being in places like Romney/Clintonish places like Des Moines and outright liberal nodes like Iowa City.

Of course, the classic once-blue-now-red state is W Virginia, where there's scarcely any Romney/Clinton-ness at all (except maybe, latently, in the eastern panhandle as it becomes part of the DC commuter orbit--but it's more that that was *already* the most GOP part of the state, but it's now closer to par)

[King of Kensington]

Regina and Saskatoon are quite suburban in character and have a lot of "blue collar prosperity."  Mini-Edmontons in a sense.  So yes the NDP's problem is much of an urban problem as it a rural problem.  Right now they're the party of the inner cities and northern First Nations communities.  

[adma]

Also it seems in Canada, urban areas over 100,000 is the typical tipping point.  Yorkton and Swift Current are pretty small and if you look at cities with similar size in Ontario, they tend to always vote Tory even in bad elections, like Tilsonburg, Pembroke, Brockville etc.

Depends--all those cited Ontario places are presently somewhat skewed by the kind of ridings they're in; and even there, they're far from monolithic (Pembroke still has the ghost of an ancestral Liberal lean, and Brockville helped make Leeds-Grenville et al marginal in 2015--and within Oxford, Ingersoll is comparable to T'burg sizewise yet it's had more of an latently NDP-friendly history, with the present automotive economy helping matters)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, winning some of those seats requires huge swings. Take Yorkton for example, which has voted for the winning party in every election since 1964, making it the province's best bellwether. The Sask Party won it in 2016 by 50 points.

Ah, most of my Canadian relations live in that area. Anyway, yes, that's the rub. Of course, the Sask Party led across the province by more than 30pts last time so winning an election would require huge swings no matter. Of course in Canada...

[adma]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

[mileslunn]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Yes and no.  Looking across Canada and US sort of mixed.

For BC, Kamloops used to be bellwether but this is no longer case.  BC Liberals will definitely win Kamloops-South Thompson while Kamloops-North Thompson might go NDP, but only if a landslide, its not a bellwether anymore.

For Alberta, the city of Calgary as a whole is considered a bellwether despite few competitive elections and this probably still true as regardless of results, Edmonton always votes left of province as whole while Rural Alberta to right.  That being said I could see something like NDP wins 15 of 26 seats in Calgary but UCP wins 46 seats overall, but only if really close might this trend be bucked.

In Manitoba, Gimli is seen as a bellwether and while I could see NDP winning it back in a landslide election, I don't think it is any longer a bellwether, its more conservative than province is as a whole.

For Ontario, it is Peterborough-Kawartha which still both provincially and federally remains one.  Peterborough is a smaller city with a university thus small enough for Tories to win but large enough it can go progressive.  But also 30% of riding is rural which Tories tend to dominate.

Sarnia-Lambton however is definitely no longer a bellwether, its now pretty solidly Tory and maybe could go NDP if they were to win so perhaps a bellwether in an NDP-Tory battle, but not a Liberal-Tory one.

For Quebec you have Laval des Rapides and CAQ probably would win it if an election were held today, but it is no longer a bellwether.

In US, Missouri used to be a bellwether but now solid red state.  Ohio was too and while still winnable by Democrats, its no longer a tipping point state; it only votes Democrat if they are on track for a solid win, not in a nail biter.  Of counties, Vigo County, Indiana often seen as a bellwether but again I could see Democrats winning it in a landslide, but not in a close election, it would go GOP.

So in sum yeah past bellwethers aren't always good ones and certainly with sorting, political alignments are changing.  The NDP's best hope is with Saskatchewan now a have province and more immigrants moving there than in past, while fewer people leaving, Regina and Saskatoon should each election cycle have a larger share of population and if province were to get to 1.4 million people as Scott Moe wants, most of the growth would probably be in those two cities thus likely closer to 50% of population than current 40%.  Only risk is you might see a lot of growth in exurbs like you are now seeing elsewhere and those tend to vote heavily to right.  Likewise amongst First Nations, birth rate is much higher, so their share of population is growing which helps NDP.  Major challenge is turnout tends to be atrocious amongst them. 

[Hatman 🍁]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Erin O'Toole could break that pattern in Peterborough, given both demographic sorting (Peterborough is about 90% white and 25% university educated) and his fairly "local" roots.

[mileslunn]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

Scarborough Centre is more still a bellwether due to luck.  It is much less favourable to Tories than province or country as whole, just happened in 2011 and 2018 it was a very strong swing to Tories thus won it.  If Liberals rather than NDP main alternative and Tories winning around 70 seats with Liberals at say 40 seats, pretty sure in that circumstance Scarborough Centre would vote Liberal.

For Saskatchewan, last two were such big blowouts and things have changed so much since 2003 that I don't think we will know where bellwethers lie until we have another NDP win or close election.

In BC, looking at past few elections, I am kind of thinking Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Vancouver-Fraserview would be good candidates for future bellwethers

Niagara Falls was also largely a bellwether federally but since 2004, has gone Tory each election although in 2004, 2015, and 2019 margins weren't particularly large so its not a safe Tory riding by any means, but not a bellwether either.  Nepean and Kanata-Carleton as well as Kitchener-Conestoga might be bellwethers.

While only true at federal level, in every election from 2004 to 2015, London West results were almost bang on what overall Ontario results were with each party being within a percent or two, but then diverged in 2019 and hasn't materialized provincially. 

For UK if current voter coalition holds, you could ironically see traditionally safe Labour seats like Bolsover and Sedgefield and traditionally safe Tory like Cities of London & Westminster, Wycombe, and Rushcliffe emerge as bellwethers.  Kenneth Clarke and Dennis Skinner were both longest serving members of their respective parties prior to 2019 and both never had trouble winning, yet results in 2019 in both their constituencies were almost bang on national averages.

[CumbrianLefty]

The only constituencies that Labour lost last year that are 'rural' in the sense that much of Saskatchewan is would be Ynys Môn and Stroud, and even then they are quite different. And there's no seat that Labour lost last year that it is implausible to see Labour ever regaining, especially as Labour is most unlikely to ever again go into an election with its image and priorities largely being shaped by the legacy of the (actually pretty old now!) New Urban Left. Not that this has much bearing on the politics of Saskatchewan.

I might question Stroud actually, apart from the main eponymous town and its environs you have Nailsworth, Cam/Dursley, Stonehouse - all of which can be considered reasonably "urban".

But as you say, back on topic.......

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Erin O'Toole could break that pattern in Peterborough, given both demographic sorting (Peterborough is about 90% white and 25% university educated) and his fairly "local" roots.

I was referring to provincial bellwethers, but Peterborough is a pretty good federal bellwether too (going back to 1984). It has voted for the party who has won the most seats in every provincial election since 1977.

[Hatman 🍁]

In a rural-urban-sorted era, bellwethers aren't the eternal thing they once might have seemed.  Kitchener Centre, for one, now seems more perma-left than a left-right swinger.

Ontario's best bellwethers are actually Peterborough and Scarborough Centre, and they're still swinging with the tide. Niagara Falls was one too until Wayne Gates won it.

Sarnia used to be a pretty good federal bellwether, but decided to not back Trudeau.

In BC, looking at past few elections, I am kind of thinking Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge-Mission, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Vancouver-Fraserview would be good candidates for future bellwethers

If you go by the party that wins the most seats, then Kamloops (either seat) remains BC's best bellwether. This will likely change in a few weeks, though.

[Former President tack50]

I don't think there is much of an urban rural split in Scandinavia and there are some very rural areas of France and Spain and Portugal that still vote left - in fact the Alentejo region of rural Portugal remains a Communist stronghold to this day.

In Portugal that is true, but Alentejo an anomaly there and a few others exist.  For Spain, there are a few rural areas that vote left, but the trend is rightward while right wing urban areas like Valencia and Madrid, trend is leftward even if they have not flipped yet.

Re Spain's and Portugal's "rural left wing areas" (even ignoring trends) I will say that they vote for the left due to a very different land distribution to that of the Anglosphere (or indeed most of Europe)

Note how they are all concentrated in the south, which is the part where the Reconquista happened last. Due to several historical factors in the middle ages, instead of the land being split more or less equally there, it ended up concentrated in the hands of a few landlords, with a very large rural land-less population.

Therefore that is how you end up with a huge mount of people who are farm workers who do not own land and therefore are very solidly left wing. And like you say, at least in Spain, this group of people is trending to the right anyways.

Meanwhile your average rural Saskatchewan or Dakota's farmer probably does own the land he farms in because his family was the one who settled it in the first place, only 150 years ago or so.

In general around the world I'd say land owners vote for the right, while peasants vote for the left. It's just that places like rural Canada or America have many more landlords than peasants.

There are other rural left wing areas in Spain, but they are either:

a) Mining areas, which seem to be more resiliently left in most places (notably rural Asturias)

b) Located in Catalonia/Basque Country so the national issue probably trumps other divisions (rural Guipúzcoa, northwest Navarra; or the Delta d'Ebre region). This point also applies in some places of the Canaries, the Balearics and Valencia to a lesser extent.

The more comparable area of rural Spain to places like rural Saskatchewan is probably rural Castille-Leon; which might have the closest land distribution scheme. And indeed rural Castille-Leon is very much a right wing area.

This analysis should also apply fairly well to Portugal.

[DL]

Meanwhile your average rural Saskatchewan or Dakota's farmer probably does own the land he farms in because his family was the one who settled it in the first place, only 150 years ago or so.

In general around the world I'd say land owners vote for the right, while peasants vote for the left. It's just that places like rural Canada or America have many more landlords than peasants.

Though another thing to consider is that at one time the Prairies were dotted with small "family farms". Those have largely died off and now its mostly factory farming. The main thing happening in places like rural Saskatchewan is you have a shrinking aging population who are resistant to social change and its hard to get them excited about economic populism when all the social media they are exposed to just goes on about gun rights and the threat of Muslims and transgendered people etc...

[mileslunn]

Meanwhile your average rural Saskatchewan or Dakota's farmer probably does own the land he farms in because his family was the one who settled it in the first place, only 150 years ago or so.

In general around the world I'd say land owners vote for the right, while peasants vote for the left. It's just that places like rural Canada or America have many more landlords than peasants.

Though another thing to consider is that at one time the Prairies were dotted with small "family farms". Those have largely died off and now its mostly factory farming. The main thing happening in places like rural Saskatchewan is you have a shrinking aging population who are resistant to social change and its hard to get them excited about economic populism when all the social media they are exposed to just goes on about gun rights and the threat of Muslims and transgendered people etc...

Also a lot of the people old enough to remember CCF days and Tommy Douglas have mostly died off while newer generation is much more individualistic and entrepreneurial and less on collectivist ideals as previous generations.  In addition large exodus to Alberta which has only ended recently probably makes some think if we vote more like Alberta we will do better.  Never mind parties on left focusing more on social issues has helped them win middle class and upper middle class urban areas, but hurt them in smaller working class communities.  Off course former is growing while latter shrinking so nationally probably the right move.

One thing that NDP may have in their favour long term is birth rate amongst First Nations much higher and projections show by 2050 they will be 1/3 of Saskatchewan's population so provided they are spread out (not sure how distribution works) and actually show up (low turnout quite common here) that could help NDP, but that is still a few decades away.  For newer non-white immigrants, not sure much benefit as I find a lot who move to Saskatchewan and similar to Alberta.  Otherwise the very entrepreneurial small business types so vote conservative more so than in other provinces.

[adma]

Also a lot of the people old enough to remember CCF days and Tommy Douglas have mostly died off while newer generation is much more individualistic and entrepreneurial and less on collectivist ideals as previous generations.  In addition large exodus to Alberta which has only ended recently probably makes some think if we vote more like Alberta we will do better.  Never mind parties on left focusing more on social issues has helped them win middle class and upper middle class urban areas, but hurt them in smaller working class communities.  Off course former is growing while latter shrinking so nationally probably the right move.

One thing that NDP may have in their favour long term is birth rate amongst First Nations much higher and projections show by 2050 they will be 1/3 of Saskatchewan's population so provided they are spread out (not sure how distribution works) and actually show up (low turnout quite common here) that could help NDP, but that is still a few decades away.  For newer non-white immigrants, not sure much benefit as I find a lot who move to Saskatchewan and similar to Alberta.  Otherwise the very entrepreneurial small business types so vote conservative more so than in other provinces.

Though while said newer generation might be less "collectivistic" in the traditional CCF way, it's not necessarily reactionarily so--it's only that the Ball/Moe Sask Party has presented itself as enough of a palatable big tent as to render an NDP vote superfluous.  But I reckon that even Saskatchewan has, among its "urban youngers", a corollary to Alberta's Notley/Nenshi latency; it's just that it needs an electoral alibi to pursue that latency.  That is, it shouldn't just require a rising First Nations share to put the NDP back on the government-in-waiting map; the raw goods are already there, much as they were in Alberta going into 2015.  (But NB: I'm *not* making that suggestion about the present election--unless Scott Moe "pulls a Prentice", that is)

[mileslunn]

Meili yesterday promised to introduce a wealth tax on those with net worth over $15 million.  Idea seems to be becoming more common amongst parties on left and be interesting to see how public responds.  Biggest danger though is I am not sure it can work at a provincial level as my guess is those impacted will just move to another province, most likely Alberta, Manitoba, or BC.  Probably easier to do at federal level where that risk is lower.  Yes one can move abroad, but its more difficult to move abroad than it is to move to another province.  I am thinking wealth taxes on provincial level would only work if every province had one and that seems unlikely, at least not under current political configuration.  For Scott Moe, his best response would be to just state this will not raise much money as those impacted will just leave Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan party's goal is to increase population not drive people away.  Never mind its not as though you have a lot of large corporations in Saskatchewan or a bunch of wealthy retirees moving there so surprised there are many people with net worth that high to begin with.  Its not like Alberta with oil industry, Ontario with financial, and BC thanks to warmer climate so lots of wealthy retirees move there.  Only possibility is some of the large farms are worth over that.

In past usually NDP has run on raising top rates and perhaps higher property taxes on expensive homes or a luxury tax, but this is new.  BC NDP has done all the former but not wealth tax even though BC has a lot more high net worth people than Saskatchewan.  Mind you in BC a lot of high net worth aren't residents there so property taxes better way to capture them.  Wonder if NDP will still propose raising top income tax rate as Saskatchewan is one of the lowest in Canada so unlike other provinces, they could raise a few points and not be uncompetitive with rest of country.

Scott Moe promises balanced budget by 2024 without tax hikes.  NDP claims this means austerity.  Reality is this will depend a lot on how soon a vaccine is developed and what type of recovery we have.  If an L shaped recovery, very difficult without a harsh dose of austerity.  But if a V shaped recovery, very easy and probably have a surplus to do other stuff.

Meili promises $15/hour minimum wage which seems popular in other jurisdictions but wonder what timeframe as doing it right away seems bad, but if over 4 years feasible.  Mind you Saskatchewan's cost of living isn't nearly as high as BC, Alberta, or Ontario, so $15/hour there is probably like $17 to $19/hour in other three mentioned in terms of purchasing power.