Saskatchewan election 2020

[mileslunn]

Did NDP win mail in ballots or just tighter?  Be interesting to see how it impacts BC as I believe in BC, the number is higher and they are supposed to heavily favour NDP.

[StateBoiler]

Looking at the latest tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (54.2%)
NDP: 6 (42.2%)
2.6% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.8%)
NDP: 5 (45.1%)
1.8% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (53.8%)
NDP: 11 (41.3%)
1.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.7%)
NDP: 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen (so far) a 1.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.4% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 0.4% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

I like that you list Saskatoon and Regina results, and then list urban being 22-11, when Regina/Saskatoon combined is 15-11. So what's the swing in the Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, and Yorkton seats the Saskatchewan Party had a 7-0 sweep in?

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the latest tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (54.2%)
NDP: 6 (42.2%)
2.6% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.8%)
NDP: 5 (45.1%)
1.8% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (53.8%)
NDP: 11 (41.3%)
1.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.7%)
NDP: 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen (so far) a 1.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.4% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 0.4% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

I like that you list Saskatoon and Regina results, and then list urban being 22-11, when Regina/Saskatoon combined is 15-11. So what's the swing in the Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, and Yorkton seats the Saskatchewan Party had a 7-0 sweep in?

1.7% towards the Sask Party, with one seat gained (their only one of the night). A slightly bigger swing than even in the rural areas, though the lack of any Buffalo candidates in any of those seven ridings probably accounts for this. (Incidentally, I also forgot to mention The Battlefords in the above list, which I also included in the urban total. Will fix on the earlier post.)

[DistingFlyer]

Looking back to 1999, the first election contested by the Sask Party, here's how the rural-urban divide went:

1999 (Urban)
NDP - 26 (46.8%)
Lib - 2 (22.3%)
SP - 1 (28.4%)

1999 (Rural)
SP - 24 (50.3%)
NDP - 3 (31.1%)
Lib - 2 (18.1%)


2003 (Urban)
NDP - 26 (52.1%)
SP - 4 (29.4%)
2.2% swing to the NDP

2003 (Rural)
SP - 24 (50.5%)
NDP - 4 (36.3%)
2.5% swing to the NDP


2007 (Urban)
NDP - 18 (44.0%)
SP - 12 (41.4%)
10.1% swing to the SP

2007 (Rural)
SP - 26 (62.6%)
NDP - 2 (28.9%)
9.7% swing to the SP


2011 (Urban)
SP - 23 (57.9%)
NDP - 7 (37.9%)
11.3% swing to the SP

2011 (Rural)
SP - 26 (72.0%)
NDP - 2 (24.7%)
6.8% swing to the SP


2016 (Urban)
SP - 25 (54.4%)
NDP - 8 (39.1%)
2.3% swing to the NDP

2016 (Rural)
SP - 26 (72.2%)
NDP - 2 (19.7%)
2.6% swing to the SP


2020 (Urban) (provisional)
SP - 22 (53.7%)
NDP - 11 (41.5%)
1.5% swing to the NDP

2020 (Rural) (provisional)
SP - 26 (71.7%)
NDP - 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to the SP


The narrowing of the gap from 2003 through 2011 (an accumulated 5.2% swing differential) was wiped out in 2016 (4.9% back again) and has widened this time too (1.8%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Did NDP win mail in ballots or just tighter?  Be interesting to see how it impacts BC as I believe in BC, the number is higher and they are supposed to heavily favour NDP.

According to Quito, it was very close; SP won postals 48-47.

[Hatman 🍁]

[StateBoiler]

I'm colorblind, shades kill me, and graphs like this anger me because I'm lost. Not blaming you, just the heavy use of close shades in political science makes me bang my head in the wall.

[DL]

Any explanation for why the NDP lost their old stronghold of Saskatoon-Riversdale when there was a swing TO the NDP in most other ridings in Saskatoon?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any explanation for why the NDP lost their old stronghold of Saskatoon-Riversdale when there was a swing TO the NDP in most other ridings in Saskatoon?

I'm having trouble figuring out why myself. There was an increase in numerical turnout, which might provide a clue. I can't seem to find any new subdivisions or anything and the SaskParty candidate doesn't seem like the kind of person to carry a large personal vote (which is why Athabasca swung so heavily)

[adma]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

[StateBoiler]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

These are also the ridings historically least supportive of the CCF/NDP.  I believe a couple of the ridings where the Buffalo Party came in 2nd place are ridings the CCF/NDP have never won.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

These are also the ridings historically least supportive of the CCF/NDP.  I believe a couple of the ridings where the Buffalo Party came in 2nd place are ridings the CCF/NDP have never won.

I think that only applies to Cannington. The NDP won Estevan as recently as 1995 and Shaunavon (predecessor to Cypress Hills) went NDP in 1991 while Maple Creek (another Cypress Hills predecessor) went NDP in 1971.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

Well, the southeast and southwest corners. I believe that's where most of the oil is in the province. Of course, they didn't run in most ridings, so it's misleading to talk about vote concentrations.

These are also the ridings historically least supportive of the CCF/NDP.  I believe a couple of the ridings where the Buffalo Party came in 2nd place are ridings the CCF/NDP have never won.

I think that only applies to Cannington. The NDP won Estevan as recently as 1995 and Shaunavon (predecessor to Cypress Hills) went NDP in 1991 while Maple Creek (another Cypress Hills predecessor) went NDP in 1971.

I thought the NDP had never won Kindersley either, but the CCF won it a couple times, and the NDP also held it from 1971-1975.

For historical purposes, in general there were two distinct areas for the rural ridings:

1.Red Square: this was the area in the central eastern part of the province that comprises the Yorkton-Melville Federal Riding.  This was the rural part of Saskatchewan the CCF/NDP dominated until the 1982 provincial election and won back in 1991 but started to lose again in 1995 and were, obviously, wiped out in 1999.  New Democrat Lorne Nystrom represented this area federally from 1968-1993.

2.The Liberal 'L.'  The provincial Liberals, it might later have been known as the anti NDP 'L.'  This is the rural area in Southern Saskatchewan and along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border that was least friendly to the CCF/NDP.  I'm not sure how high up the province the 'L' went as the rural Northern riding of Meadow Lake is now one of the NDP's strongest rural ridings (relatively speaking.)

Parts of this 'L' are now also the most favorable to the Buffalo Party.

This article from John Gormley for the 2016 Saskatchewan Election doesn't add anything to what I wrote, but it does provide expert testimony:

In earlier times, when parts of rural Saskatchewan voted NDP, there was always “red square,” the area surrounding Yorkton, taking in today’s ridings of Canora-Pelly, Melville-Saltcoats, Kelvington-Wadena and Last Mountain-Touchwood.

However, a band of seats forming an “L” shape — south along the Alberta border to the U.S. and east across southern Saskatchewan — rarely went NDP.

The so-called “Liberal L” has Cannington at its tip in Southeast Saskatchewan, the only place to have never elected the NDP or its predecessor CCF since 1905.

https://thestarphoenix.com/opinion/columnists/gormley-ridings-to-watch-in-the-sask-election

[King of Kensington]

What role did ethnicity play in the CCF-NDP vote?  According to Lipset's Agrarian Socialism, Scandinavians and Ukrainians were disproportionately pro-CCF, while German Catholic and especially Mennonites were the most anti-CCF. 

[adma]

Looks like the count's complete--Pasqua and Riversdale stay Sask
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/final-count-in-for-sask-election-2-ridings-decided-1.5794500

[DistingFlyer]

Now that the count's complete, have updated the statistical breakdowns on previous pages

Have also updated the pdf file for Saskatchewan elections in the Drive folder (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) (will also do the same for BC once the count in Fairview is finished).

[DL]

Looks like the count's complete--Pasqua and Riversdale stay Sask
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/final-count-in-for-sask-election-2-ridings-decided-1.5794500

The NDP must have done quite well with the remaining Mail in ballots because while they lost those seats they narrowed the gap quite a bit even compared to the first count of Mail ins

[mileslunn]

Looks like the count's complete--Pasqua and Riversdale stay Sask
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/final-count-in-for-sask-election-2-ridings-decided-1.5794500

The NDP must have done quite well with the remaining Mail in ballots because while they lost those seats they narrowed the gap quite a bit even compared to the first count of Mail ins

Mail in ballots I think tend to favour parties on left as we have seen in four elections recently.  In New Zealand National lost ground on those and it pushed Ardern over 50% mark.  Again didn't change outcome but still helped.

In BC, less shift, but NDP did increase vote by 2.5% while BC liberals fell 1.5% but could also be mail in ballots were mostly in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where NDP dominated and less so in Interior.  Despite that shift smaller than others as BC Liberals more your run of mill centre-right party, not Trumpian so their supporters probably take pandemic almost as seriously as NDP.  In Interior, almost no COVID-19 cases so fewer concerns.

In Saskatchewan, partly geography as most mail in were in Regina and Saskatoon where NDP does better, but also while Saskatchewan Party is far from Trumpian, Saskatchewan unlike BC does have its fair share of Trump like types and they probably mostly vote Saskatchewan Party while few vote NDP thus likely while not as big a divide as US, those that are anti-maskers, oppose restrictions and think COVID-19 is a joke disproportionately voted Saskatchewan Party.

US most extreme example.  Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by 15 points on election night, but then Biden won as 78% of mail in voters went for him so probably similar scenario but not quite to same extent.  Otherwise people who vote for parties on left more likely to be concerned about COVID-19 thus vote by mail while for those on right, a sizeable portion although not near to extent as in US see COVID-19 as no threat thus prefer to vote in person.  Never mind probably Trump's rhetoric may have had some spillover in convincing the MAGA types in Saskatchewan (who are about 25% of province) mail in ballots subject to fraud.

[Agonized-Statism]

I wonder how the characters from Corner Gas voted

[StateBoiler]

I wonder how the characters from Corner Gas voted

Sask Party based on where they lived!