Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Sorenroy]

I've been incredibly disappointed by the news coverage of the Iowa results that I have heard. Even though I disagree with the way that it's being reported, I can understand the news leading with State Delegate Equivalent numbers. However, it's feels disingenuous to not even mention the popular vote results and to treat the results as final. For example, the New York Times's The Daily podcast just said that Buttigieg was leading and interspersed the ranking of the candidates with Buttigieg's "victory" speech.

[BlueSwan]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

Holy crap, Biden overperforming by a full 4 SDEs. OK, at this rate he's definitely going to be above 15% statewide.

I wouldn't assume that. This is the home of Waterloo, the city in Iowa with the largest black population by percentage.

Yeah, I heard something about a black family of four moving to Waterloo from NYC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

Holy crap, Biden overperforming by a full 4 SDEs. OK, at this rate he's definitely going to be above 15% statewide.

I wouldn't assume that. This is the home of Waterloo, the city in Iowa with the largest black population by percentage.

Yeah, I heard something about a black family of four moving to Waterloo from NYC.

Waterloo is over 15% black, higher than the national numbers and has a notable black population going back to the Great Migration and its development during its industrial days and blacks from coal mining towns resettling there after Iowa's coal industry died.

[Xing]

Those are good results for Biden out of Black Hawk, but he'll also need to improve in Polk and Story.

[Gass3268]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

But the national delegates are allocated based on the SDEs, which is why they are the most important number.

This is utterly absurd logic. Either you're concerned with the ultimate material outcome, and thus you care about national convention delegates, or you're concerned with actual support, in which case you care about the popular vote. Touting some intermediate mathematical construct as the "true" arbiter of who won makes no sense under either standpoint.

Gonna have to agree to disagree.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1225164593284120578?s=20

[Tender Branson]

85% in.

Pete’s lead expands to 45 delegate equivalents (vs. 28 with 75%).

Pete won IA.

[W]

Deval Patrick has more final votes than Yang.

BWAHAHAHHAHAHHA!

[Tender Branson]

85% in.

Pete’s lead expands to 45 delegate equivalents.

Pete won IA.

Lets go!

Suck it Bernie Bros!

Indeed (but the emphasis is on „Bernie bros“, not Bernie himself).

I hereby declare victory for Pete and my fellow supporters who defied the odds and who remained confident despite the crappy polls and the hateful Bernie bros !

[W]

gg

[Dr. Arch]

Pete won the final popular vote too!?

[n1240]

There is obviously something wrong with the results if Deval Patrick randomly jumped up to 22 SDEs after having none

[Baki]

Pete won the final popular vote too!?

So far that seems to be correct.

[W]

Alright I've been optimistic for quite some time but this does look like the end of the road honestly. Well done to Pete, well done to his supporters. Thank you for a wonderful display of fireworks!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

HAHAHAHA the Bros are gonna lose their minds.

[KaiserDave]

There is obviously something wrong with the results if Deval Patrick randomly jumped up to 22 SDEs after having none

Yeah

These results might be off

[Xing]

There is obviously something wrong with the results if Deval Patrick randomly jumped up to 22 SDEs after having none

This does seem very strange.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

HAHAHAHA the Bros are gonna lose their minds.

Yeah, definitely the "Bros" are the ones triggered by the results, not the guy who is "challenging the legitimacy of the process" after coming in a distant fourth. Hate to see it.

[Gass3268]

Numbers are probably wrong.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225168116994445312?s=20

[cvparty]

nvm i just saw the deval patrick numbers lmao

[n1240]

In some newly reported Polk county precincts, Sanders SDEs were given to Patrick while Warren SDEs were given to Steyer it looks like

statewide SDE lead is probably closer to 22 for Buttigieg

[Tender Branson]

I predicted early on that Pete would do really well in the suburbs (except for Story, which is strange) and rural areas, whereas Sanders does well in the urban areas.

Problem for Bernie: IA is a lot more rural than urban, that’s why Pete’s numbers are now increasing.

[RI]

lol IDP

[KaiserDave]

Numbers are probably wrong.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225168116994445312?s=20

Good.


But also bad. Iowa Democratic Party needs to be ;jfzxhoudifsg

[Xing]

Numbers are probably wrong.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225168116994445312?s=20

It's rigged, folks!