Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225139369201274881?s=20

[Xing]

Looks like this was mostly from more rural/suburban counties. Nothing new from Polk, Story, Linn, Johnson, or Black Hawk. Biden might still fall short of 15%.

[RI]

Early afternoon, whatever that means.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1225106172094701569?s=20

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO WWWWOOOOOOOOO

YEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

We now have 73%! Hooray! We did it, boys!

I doubt it's going to be 2%. Probably around 15%.

About that...

[jimrtex]

How do you win a fraction of a state delegate?

SDEs are a media/state party creation from a long time back to make it all simpler to understand. After these caucuses, the elected delegates go to a county convention, where they select delegates to go to the state level. At the state level they select convention nominees. From what I understand, until very recently, counties operated like state legislatures and had total numbers of delegates for the county level vary wildly and often with only a slight accommodation for the variations in size. However, the state level delegates are proportionally distributed. SDEs therefore are a creation designed to cut out the county level step and go straight from the precinct to the state for view comprehension. So,you can have decimal SDEs because say a county could have 50 delegates at the county level, 9 of which came from precinct A, but only 4 delegates are sent to the state convention.

The size of a county conventions in rural counties are typically larger relative to the Democratic popular vote, than in urban counties. While the number of state delegates is proportional to the Democratic popular vote. If county convention sizes were proportional, then those in rural counties, or those in urban counties would be quite large.

For example, the county convention in Adair has 50 delegates, while that in Polk has 1400.

Meanwhile, the state convention delegates from Adair is 4 vs. 392 for Polk. This is a good match for the popular vote for the Democratic candidate in 2016 and 2018 (1K+ in Adair, 100K+ in Polk).

If the county conventions were proportional, then that in Adair would have 14 delegates, or that in Polk would have 5000.

It is similar to activity in a small rural HS, vs, a large urban HS. In the rural HS, any boy might be able to play on the football team - if only to play in practice, and one quarter per season. An exceptional freshman might be able to start. At the large school, the linemen will be huge and do serious weight training or be exceptionally fast. Most male students will be in the stands or in the band, or maybe not at the game at all.

In the community practically all men would be in the volunteer fire department, or at least contribute to buy new (used) equipment.

Historically, conventions worked in a cascaded fashion. Precinct caucuses would choose county delegates, county conventions would choose congressional district delegates, and congressional district conventions would choose state delegates, and the state convention would choose national delegates. The caucuses and conventions are required in state law, and happen every two years.

Iowa held its first primary in 1916. It had low attendance. The governor proposed scrapping the primary, but only the presidential primary was eliminated. During most of the 20th Century, bosses controlled matters. The 1968 Convention/Riot in Chicago resulted in requirement of proportional allotment of delegates. Reform commissions for the 1972 and 1976 conventions were headed by George McGovern and Jimmy Carter who used their knowledge of the rules to help themselves be nominated.

Iowa Democrats with a four-tiered process resulted in an early 1972 caucus. By 1976, Democratic officials in Iowa encouraged candidates to campaign in Iowa; they then told the press they had to come to Iowa to cover the candidates; and the candidates should come because the press was there; and voters should attend the caucuses because of the press and candidates publicizing the effort.

Initially, there would only be county delegates to report, and it was realized that this resulted in more delegates being reported from rural areas. So they (press and party) devised SDE to account for variance in county convention sizes. The actual state delegates would change at the county convention as non-viable candidates would be eliminated, rounding errors, and unfaithful delegates.

[Gass3268]

Looks like this was mostly from more rural/suburban counties. Nothing new from Polk, Story, Linn, Johnson, or Black Hawk. Biden might still fall short of 15%.

I'm guessing he will.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SDE breakdown of the new batch:
- Pete 28.5%
- Bernie 24.4%
- Biden 19.1%
- Warren 15.3%
- Klob 11.3%

Final round breakdown:
- Pete 29.6%
- Bernie 24.7%
- Biden 19.5%
- Warren 14.4%
- Klob 9.4%

Inderesting that Bernie was only marginally underrepresented in this particular batch compared to SDEs (in fact Pete was underrepresented more). Still, very unrepresentative batch. Let's hope that the rural precincts push Biden under 15%.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

Electoral College > Popular Vote.

[BlueSwan]

I guess the Buttigieg camp had pretty reliable internal counts when he declared victory on election night then. Otherwise that was a massive gamble.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/idaveprice/status/1225148653653975040

Thank God for that. It would have been a shame if we had just gotten 4% of precincts.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/idaveprice/status/1225148653653975040

Thank God for that. It would have been a shame if we had just gotten 4% of precincts.

I want all the results, and the entire Iowa Dem leadership teamed exiled to irrelevance.

[brucejoel99]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/idaveprice/status/1225148653653975040

Thank God for that. It would have been a shame if we had just gotten 4% of precincts.

I mean for all we know, it could be another 4%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225151788648554496

[n1240]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

[BlueSwan]

I'm off the bed now. I will be pissed off if results are not in when I wake up in about 8 hours from now. I gotta teach my freshman political science class tomorrow and it would be frustrating not having the final results for that, although some of the class will be dedicated to honoring the great Mitt Romney, lol.

[Gass3268]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

But the national delegates are allocated based on the SDEs, which is why they are the most important number.

[Gass3268]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

These are legit good numbers for Biden in his quest to stay over 15% statewide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

Holy crap, Biden overperforming by a full 4 SDEs. OK, at this rate he's definitely going to be above 15% statewide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

But the national delegates are allocated based on the SDEs, which is why they are the most important number.

This is utterly absurd logic. Either you're concerned with the ultimate material outcome, and thus you care about national convention delegates, or you're concerned with actual support, in which case you care about the popular vote. Touting some intermediate mathematical construct as the "true" arbiter of who won makes no sense under either standpoint.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

Holy crap, Biden overperforming by a full 4 SDEs. OK, at this rate he's definitely going to be above 15% statewide.

I wouldn't assume that. This is the home of Waterloo, the city in Iowa with the largest black population by percentage.