It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224051324976877570

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sanders probably gets unallocated first prefs. I think Biden wins re-allocation. Therefor I think Biden wins Iowa.

[DanPrazeres]

First round:
Sanders 27%
Biden 22%
Buttigieg 15%
Klobuchar 13%
Warren 11%
Yang: 6%

Final round:
Sanders 35%
Biden 27%
Klobuchar 18%
Buttigieg 12%
Warren 5%

(I came back to Atlas just for this thread)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I will predict Sanders in a clear 1st (high 20s), Warren in a clear 2nd (low 20s), and then Biden/Pete/Klobuchar bunched up close together for 3rd/4th/5th (all around 15%).

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Iowa Prediction

Vote Rating: Lean Sanders

Initial Vote

Sanders: 28%
Biden: 20%
Buttigieg: 16%
Warren: 16%
Klobuchar: 10%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 3%
Gabbard: 1%
Others: 1%

Reallocated Vote:

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 18%
Klobuchar: 4%
Others: 1%

State Delegates: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders (due to the rural bias) - although he shouldn't do too bad in most rural areas

I think Sanders will win fairly comfortably, although I'm not super confident about the margin. I will say this, if anybody else wins, I'm fairly confident it will be by a narrow margin, no more than 3% (and that would probably have to be Biden). I'm not at all confident about the order of 2-4, it would not surprise me for Biden to come in behind Buttigieg or Warren. Same with Buttigieg vs Warren. A lot of the polls are all over the place specifically when it comes to Biden and Warren's level of support. Also not that confident in predicting Klobuchar's number, but it doesn't look like she's getting the Santorum surge she needs, to say the least.

Even if there are few delegates coming out of Iowa, the message could be Sanders is the clear person to take on Biden (if he wins by a lot) or the race is still open for anybody's taking (if he wins by a narrow margin). I've thought about the reallocated vote a lot and I don't think it's going to hurt Sanders as much as people think. The 2nd choices of all the candidates are not super disproportionate, and while have noticed that Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are generally not friendly to Bernie, Yang and Warren supporters are not generally friendly to Biden. Because there are more Klobuchar voters that will probably get reallocated, it will skew a point or two to Biden in the margin but not something crazy like a +8 swing.

Overall, this is going to be a fun night tomorrow. There's a lot of possibilities, I will not be on Atlas to avoid hysteria (and it generally crashes anyway on election nights, right?). I will be just watching cable news for the once in a great while that I do.

[recovered democrat]

37 - Sanders
19 - Warren
19 - Biden
19 - Buttigieg
06 - Klobuchar, et al

[Shadows]

Biden won't get more than 2-3% bump vs Bernie in 2nd choice. Sanders has Gabbard+Yang supporters who combined poll around 5-6%, plus some Steyer voters & Warren in some areas. He will also get some bump.

Biden's bump would have been higher if Pete & Klobuchar both would have been below 10%. It looks like Pete will cross the 15% in many areas & his support is also spread out. At best, Biden will get 2-3% more of a bump vs Bernie. If Bernie is ahead by 4-5% in the 1st Poll, he will likely win. Biden will overtake him if the 1st poll is only 1-2% odd.

Another key thing will be turnout. If turnout crosses 2008 numbers or 250K or reaches near 300K, Bernie has won this thing. He may well be ahead by 10-12% in the initial vote then. Turnout numbers will be a key metric to watch.

[Gass3268]

Biden won't get more than 2-3% bump vs Bernie in 2nd choice. Sanders has Gabbard+Yang supporters who combined poll around 5-6%, plus some Steyer voters & Warren in some areas. He will also get some bump.

Biden's bump would have been higher if Pete & Klobuchar both would have been below 10%. It looks like Pete will cross the 15% in many areas & his support is also spread out. At best, Biden will get 2-3% more of a bump vs Bernie. If Bernie is ahead by 4-5% in the 1st Poll, he will likely win. Biden will overtake him if the 1st poll is only 1-2% odd.

Another key thing will be turnout. If turnout crosses 2008 numbers or 250K or reaches near 300K, Bernie has won this thing. He may well be ahead by 10-12% in the initial vote then. Turnout numbers will be a key metric to watch.

Polling has suggested that Biden leads with folks that are not expecting to turn out to caucus.

[Shadows]

Biden won't get more than 2-3% bump vs Bernie in 2nd choice. Sanders has Gabbard+Yang supporters who combined poll around 5-6%, plus some Steyer voters & Warren in some areas. He will also get some bump.

Biden's bump would have been higher if Pete & Klobuchar both would have been below 10%. It looks like Pete will cross the 15% in many areas & his support is also spread out. At best, Biden will get 2-3% more of a bump vs Bernie. If Bernie is ahead by 4-5% in the 1st Poll, he will likely win. Biden will overtake him if the 1st poll is only 1-2% odd.

Another key thing will be turnout. If turnout crosses 2008 numbers or 250K or reaches near 300K, Bernie has won this thing. He may well be ahead by 10-12% in the initial vote then. Turnout numbers will be a key metric to watch.

Polling has suggested that Biden leads with folks that are not expecting to turn out to caucus.

That is wrong actually. The Youth turnout is expected to go up atleast 3 times & most polling models are based on 2016 Youth turnout. Apart from that you look @ Boomer turnout & it is pretty much maxed vis-a-vis youth turnout where there is massive scope for growth, maybe turnouts among Under 35 can triple or go 4 times up.

That helps largely 1 Candidate - Bernie Sanders. If you like the Mainstream Media, tune in to CBS or CNN. They are saying if turnout crosses 2008 level or goes near to 300K, it will be an easy Sanders victory.

[Devout Centrist]

Sanders 33
Klobuchar 19
Buttigieg 16
Biden 16
Warren 13
Uncommitted 3

How stupid smart are the people of Iowa.

[Shadows]

Sanders' internal Caucus Commit numbers is between 80-90K + Many would be voters, similar to 2016 numbers. Turnout will surely exceed 2008 numbers. It may even go up to 300K.

Assuming 85K & 250K odd, it will be close to 30%. That is assuming he can get people to turnout. If turnout goes to 300K level, I am sure Sanders' numbers would also increase.

Word on the ground is Pete's campaign is looking quite strong in rural areas, even more so that Biden's & Warren's campaign is also doing good in highly educated urban areas. Pete will probably beat his poll numbers & maybe Warren will too. There are many Klobuchar voters  who have Pete & Warren as 2nd choice so all those won't necessary go to Biden.

It is now about who gets maximum of their supporters go to the polls. I am sticking with the 29-30% odd for Sanders in 1st Poll & 35%+ in 2nd preference which should be enough for a victory. I don't think Pete or Biden will cross 30% after full realignment. Pete's campaign is much better than what people here think.

[Xing]

One last update:

First Round:
Sanders 25%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 10%

Second Round:
Sanders 29% (16)
Biden 25% (14)
Warren 19% (6)
Buttigieg 17% (5)
Klobuchar 5%

Rating: Tilt Sanders

[Ronnie]

My final prediction:

First Round:
Sanders 22%
Warren 21%
Biden 19%
Buttigieg 19%
Klobuchar 10%
Yang 4%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 1.5%
Others 0.5%

Second Round:
Warren 26.5%
Sanders 25.5%
Biden 23%
Buttigieg 22%
Klobuchar 3%

Warren pulls off an upset and takes the win.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lean Bernie, but I've been increasingly cautious since Friday night. The Tlaib booing incident + increasing takes regarding reallocation got me pretty worried, perhaps moreso than it should.

And while I can envision Biden pulling out a squeaker after reallocation, I can't see him getting more than a 3% margin. I do think, with their ground games, Bernie & Buttigieg will do a bit better than the polls suggest. As well, Biden could potentially drop a little bit if his organizing really is as mediocre as has been reported.


Sanders    28%
Biden        21%
Buttigieg   20%
Warren      17%
Klobuchar   9%


This caucus has given me vibes of the 2012 GOP caucus, particularly with the potential of a Biden surge in the second round. I just hope we'll get some semblance of a winner by 2 AM EST

[Skye]

I still think it's a tossup, but if I were forced to choose, I'd choose Sanders.

[Thunder98]

Sanders 24%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 10%
Yang 5%
Steyer 4%
Other 6%

[Horus]

Sanders - 29
Biden - 21
Warren - 19
Buttigieg - 13
Klobuchar - 12

[Sir Mohamed]

Sanders - 29
Biden - 21
Warren - 19
Buttigieg - 13
Klobuchar - 12

TBH, this is now my last minute prediction, too.

[heatcharger]

First Round:
Sanders 25%
Biden 22%
Warren 19%
Buttigieg 17%
Klobuchar 13%

Second Round:
Biden 29%
Sanders 28%
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 14%
Klobuchar ~5%

I’m expecting a lot of chaos between the rounds with Klobuchar and Buttigieg hovering around or below viability in many precincts. I think this will “save” Biden but there’s obviously a lot of uncertainty in this format.

[redjohn]

First round:

Bernie Sanders: 26%
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%

Amy Klobuchar: 11%

Second round:

Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

[InheritTheWind]

I'm not gonna bother predicting the individual percentages, but: Bernie, Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, Klobuchar in that order.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Code:

			538		NyT		RCP
Sanders		22.2%	22%		24.2%
Biden		21.0%	22%		20.2%
Buttigieg		15.4%	18%		16.4%
Warren		14.7%	15%		15.6%
Klocbuchar	10.1%	8%		8.6%
Yang			3.8%	3%		3.8%
Steyer		3.6%	3%		3.0%

Chose your fighter!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/politics/2020-iowa-caucus-date-time.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

[bilaps]

538 forecast shows Bernie 28, Biden 26, Pete 18, Warren 16, Klobuchar 9

[nolesfan2011]

1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Biden
4. Warren
5. Klobuchar

Warren's ground game and DMR endorsement is enough to clear the threshold but I still see her getting squeezed by Sanders and Pete. Pete's people have bet it all on Iowa and he should have enough org to do just enough to stay in it for at least another week. Both Warren and Pete's supporters are the most likely to be considering other candidates (including each other), but Pete seems well liked enough in Iowa to retain meaningful support.

Sanders "surge" isn't a massive surge but nothing has chipped into it enough to stop him from getting first on the back of retaining enough of his 2016 support in this state (despite getting basically none of the HRC/O'Malley vote that's more split up).

Biden is also going to gets squeezed by having a weaker org and somewhat less motivated supporters, this is not his ideal state and he needs to hope he doesn't end up 4th.

Klobuchar gets the cutting room floor, just not enough moderate vote available for her, this is the end of the road.

[VPH]

Sanders - 27%
Biden - 21%
Pete - 20%
Klobuchar - 13%
Warren - 13%
Other - 6%