It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[Stable Genius]

First round:
Sanders - 26%
Warren - 20%
Buttigieg - 20%
Biden - 17%
Klobuchar - 12%
Others - 5%

Final delegate allocation:
Sanders - 28%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 22%
Warren - 21%
Klobuchar - 6%

Clean win for Sanders. Warren and Buttigieg overperform polling due to better organization. Biden underperforms but is partially saved in the delegate count by doing better in the rurals while Warren support is concentrated in suburbs. Klobuchar hits double digits but misses viability in most places.

[Beet]

Sanders 28%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg and Warren tied 20%
Klobuchar 12%
Steyer 6%
Yang 5%
Others 6%

[redjohn]

So here are the total ratings from this poll:

Tilt/Lean/Likely Sanders: 80%
Tilt/Lean/Likely Buttigieg: 3%
Tilt/Lean/Likely Biden: 7%
Tilt Warren: 1%
Tossup: 8%

Total tossups/tilt: 49%

[Del Tachi]

Initial preference:
Sanders 23%
Klobuchar 18%
Biden 18%
Warren 13%
Buttigieg 11%

After transfers:
Sanders 29%
Klobuchar 25%
Biden 22%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 7%

#Klobmentum

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Tilt Bernie, and no further. I'm expecting the order to be

1) Bernie
2) Pete
3) Warren
4) Biden

however, 2-4 can be interchangeable very easily, and will be likely 1-2% away from each other or less.

As for delegates, I'm still gonna say that Yang surprises and wins a delegate or two. If there's any group of supporters that's going to turn out at like, 80+%, it's his.

[Tender Branson]

My absolutely final prediction for IA:

26% Pete Buttigieg
20% Bernie Sanders
17% Elizabeth Warren
15% Joe Biden
12% Amy Klobuchar
  6% Andrew Yang
  2% Tom Steyer
  1% Tulsi Gabbard
  1% Others

After reallocation, Pete will hit 30% or slightly more.

Turnout: 256.000

96% Donald Trump
  4% Others

Turnout: 143.000

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/markzbarabak/status/1224383460590129153

[jaichind]

First round

Sanders     27
Biden        22
Buttigieg   17
Warren      16
Klobuchar  12
Others        6

Final

Sanders       34
Biden           31
Buttigieg      16
Warren        15
Klobuchar      4

[Kleine Scheiße]

sanders 28, biden 27, buttigieg 18, warren 14, klobuchar 7, yang 4, steyer 1, other 1

yang might get one or two delegates, steyer will get none

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Iowa Prediction

Vote Rating: Lean Sanders

Initial Vote

Sanders: 28%
Biden: 20%
Buttigieg: 16%
Warren: 16%
Klobuchar: 10%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 3%
Gabbard: 1%
Others: 1%

Reallocated Vote:

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 18%
Klobuchar: 4%
Others: 1%

State Delegates: Toss-Up/Tilt Sanders (due to the rural bias) - although he shouldn't do too bad in most rural areas

I think Sanders will win fairly comfortably, although I'm not super confident about the margin. I will say this, if anybody else wins, I'm fairly confident it will be by a narrow margin, no more than 3% (and that would probably have to be Biden). I'm not at all confident about the order of 2-4, it would not surprise me for Biden to come in behind Buttigieg or Warren. Same with Buttigieg vs Warren. A lot of the polls are all over the place specifically when it comes to Biden and Warren's level of support. Also not that confident in predicting Klobuchar's number, but it doesn't look like she's getting the Santorum surge she needs, to say the least.

Even if there are few delegates coming out of Iowa, the message could be Sanders is the clear person to take on Biden (if he wins by a lot) or the race is still open for anybody's taking (if he wins by a narrow margin). I've thought about the reallocated vote a lot and I don't think it's going to hurt Sanders as much as people think. The 2nd choices of all the candidates are not super disproportionate, and while have noticed that Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are generally not friendly to Bernie, Yang and Warren supporters are not generally friendly to Biden. Because there are more Klobuchar voters that will probably get reallocated, it will skew a point or two to Biden in the margin but not something crazy like a +8 swing.

Overall, this is going to be a fun night tomorrow. There's a lot of possibilities, I will not be on Atlas to avoid hysteria (and it generally crashes anyway on election nights, right?). I will be just watching cable news for the once in a great while that I do.

Republican

Trump - 92%
Weld - 5%
Walsh - 2%
Others - 1%

Rep Turnout: 140K
Dem Turnout: 310K

[W]

Statewide, Warren and Klobuchar viable in statistically relevant # of precincts.

First round:
Sanders 27%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 16%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 11%
Yang 6%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Bloomberg 1%
Unpledged 1%
Other 1%
Bennet <1%
Patrick <1%

Second round:
Sanders 37%
Buttigieg 26%
Biden 22%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 0%
Steyer 0%
Gabbard 0%
Bloomberg 0%
Unpledged 0%
Other 0%
Bennet 0%
Patrick 0%

Delegates:
Sanders 16
Buttigieg 10
Biden 9
Unallocated 8
Warren 4
Klobuchar 2

[Pericles]

Iowa has me stumped, I am very unsure about what is going on. One prediction I'll make is that if Bernie doesn't come first many posters will act like it's a huge surprise-which it isn't-and if Bernie does better than expected people will also treat it as a big upset.

So my guess is that Sanders comes first, Warren comes a close second, Buttigieg edges out Biden for third place, Biden comes fourth and Klobmentum isn't a thing (could be very wrong here) with her getting 5th. Something like 24% Bernie, 23% Warren, 19% Buttigieg, 18% Biden, 10% Klobuchar, 6% others.

[Bumaye]

First round:

Bernie 26%
Biden 20%
Pete 15%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 9%
Yang 6%
Steyer 4%
Otters 5%

Second round:
Bernie 32%
Biden 25%
Pete 18%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 11%
Yang 2%

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Sanders 24%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 10%
Yang 5%
Steyer 4%
Other 6%

Ok last minute changes for the 1st round....

This prediction might be completely wrong by tonight. Now I believe that Klobuchar does better than expected tonight

Sanders 23%
Buttigieg 18%
Klobuchar 16%
Biden 16%
Warren 13%
Yang 4%
Steyer 3%
Other 7%

[Canis]

First Round
Sanders 25%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 19%
Warren 17%
Klobuchar 11%
Yang 5%
Steyer 1%
Gabbard 1%
Others 1%
Second Round
Sanders wins with slightly over 30% Biden and Buttigieg about 2-3 points behind him Warren likely gets 20%

[rob in cal]

   Going with the conventional wisdom of the Atlas forum on this one, and I have 50 dollars riding on a Sanders win at 69% likelihood.  Linking finance and the wisdom of the forum, what could possibly go wrong.

[538Electoral]

I predict a joke.

[Tender Branson]

My absolutely final prediction for IA:

26% Pete Buttigieg
20% Bernie Sanders
17% Elizabeth Warren
15% Joe Biden
12% Amy Klobuchar
  6% Andrew Yang
  2% Tom Steyer
  1% Tulsi Gabbard
  1% Others

After reallocation, Pete will hit 30% or slightly more.

Turnout: 256.000

96% Donald Trump
  4% Others

Turnout: 143.000

Actually not all too bad ... I counted on a surprise late Yang gain at the expense of Bernie, which didn’t happen.

Also, turnout on both sides was far below my expectations.