It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

My gut is telling me Burnie, which is great news because Iowa voters are notoriously out of touch with the rest of the country.

>notoriously out of touch
<voted for the eventual democratic nominee in 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016

[Green Line]

My gut is telling me Burnie, which is great news because Iowa voters are notoriously out of touch with the rest of the country.

>notoriously out of touch
<voted for the eventual democratic nominee in 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016

To me, they're out of touch.

[Eraserhead]

My gut is telling me Burnie, which is great news because Iowa voters are notoriously out of touch with the rest of the country.

>notoriously out of touch
<voted for the eventual democratic nominee in 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016

To me, they're out of touch.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My gut is telling me Burnie, which is great news because Iowa voters are notoriously out of touch with the rest of the country.

>notoriously out of touch
<voted for the eventual democratic nominee in 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016

To me, they're out of touch.

Well, voting for Bernie would certainly be out of touch.

[brucejoel99]

Either way, the overreactions to the result will be absolutely insufferable.

When is this ever not the case, though?

I'm looking forward to a different candidate winning each of the three reported results and claiming victory.

Three? I know two, what am I missing?

Initial preferences, reallocations, & delegates.

[YE]

If this thread is getting pinned, then Xing's Iowa prediction thread should also get pinned.

Lean Sanders.

Mind if I merge those two then and override one of the polls then? Ditto with NH. I’m not sticking two exteremly similar threads.

[YE]

Somewhere between Option 1 and 2. It’s Bernie's to lose but the result is no means certain. With that said, he’s clearly, despite a not well run campaign in the general and a slow start, peaking at the right time.

[indietraveler]

Take this with a huge grain of salt since I didn't catch the entire story, but I'm watching CBSN and they just covered a mock caucus at Drake in Des Moines among students so they know what to expect on Monday. Pete and Liz were the only ones to reach viability. I don't know if this was for a class, student democrats, if the population at that mock caucus was required to be there, or if it was staged. There was a lot of enthusiasm in the room with campaign signs and all.

[Xing]

If this thread is getting pinned, then Xing's Iowa prediction thread should also get pinned.

Lean Sanders.

Mind if I merge those two then and override one of the polls then? Ditto with NH. I’m not sticking two exteremly similar threads.

I'd personally prefer that the polls remain separate, since I'm trying to keep track of the percentages. You don't have to sticky my threads, they seem to get bumped enough as it is.

[Gass3268]

Lean Sanders

New 538 average after three polls today:

Sanders 22.3
Biden 21.8
Buttigieg 16.3
Warren 13.9
Klobuchar 9.3

If I could change my vote I would move it to Toss Up / Tilt Sanders.

[redjohn]

Sticking with tossup/tilt Bernie. Good chance Bernie wins, but there's also a chance Biden wins. I think it's extremely likely though that Bernie either wins the most delegates or a plurality of the first vote... Biden still has a chance, and so does Buttigieg. Biden needs to turn out those older voters and get Klobuchar's supporters to switch to him when she fails to meet viability in precincts. That's how he wins.

Bernie needs a huge youth turnout, a group that overwhelmingly supports him. I think he has more youth support than polls show (last time he got 80 something percent in Iowa with young voters).

[Ebsy]

Bernie landslide here we come.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't wait to bump this thread Tuesday morning.

[Pericles]

Anything can happen in Iowa, so Pete can certainly win (though my guess is he's the least likely of the top 4 to do so at this point). The main weird thing is the exact support for candidates-in particular I'd think Klobuchar would be much lower if Pete is winning.

[Gass3268]

That's not even how the process works.

[ElectionsGuy]

That's not even how the process works.

In all precinct caucuses, the presidential candidates must meet a 15% viability threshold within the individual precinct (which grows to: 16.67% for small precincts only electing three delegates, 25% for smaller precincts only electing two delegates or 50% for the smallest precincts only electing one delegate) in order to qualify as a viable candidate. Supporters of non-viable candidates having received a result below the viability threshold in the first preliminary vote, are then allowed either to merge their non-viable group with another non-viable group in order to create a big enough group to qualify as a viable candidate, or in the alternative transfer their support by casting their second vote to one of the remaining viable candidates.

You're prediction is as if Biden and Warren will not get anything statewide because they didn't get >15% statewide, when they're bound to get >15% in enough precincts to get at least some vote in the reallocation.

[Xing]

Did you really need to start a thread for this? I already have a thread for predictions about Iowa, and there's a stickied thread about rating Iowa.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Did you really need to start a thread for this? I already have a thread for predictions about Iowa, and there's a stickied thread about rating Iowa.

Tender needs attention though.

[NOVA Green]

Was going to vote tossup / tilt Sanders based upon what very recent respectable polling has shown, as well as the strength of the Sanders Turnout campaign.

Decided to get slightly edgy and go with Lean Sanders based upon two factors:

1.) Very recent national polling indicating that Warren/Sanders voters are now moving into backing the other candidate as respective 2nd choices.

2.) Weather Forecast for Monday (Corny....Yes--- I know weather forecasts before elections )

Current weather forecast for Iowa City for Monday is a High of 37 and low of 29 Degrees and Mostly Cloudy (Rain and Snow Showers aren't supposed to hit until overnight).

Take it for what it's worth or maybe my two cents are worth less than the mineral ore they are minted on it worth....

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USIA0414:1:US

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone want to predict which (if any) of the Democratic candidates will end up getting zero state delegate equivalents?  (Meaning, they don't hit 15% viability in a single precinct in the state.)  Looks like in the last Dem. Iowa caucus with more than 3 candidates (2008), Chris Dodd, in 6th place, did manage to get at least a few.  But Gravel and Kucinich both got zero.  Surely with 12 candidates this time, some of them will get zero state delegate equivalents.  I mean, is Bennet really going to get 15% anywhere?  What about Patrick?

[Senator Spark]

Think Sanders wins the initial first vote, with Biden winning the second final allocation.

[ElectionsGuy]

Does anyone want to predict which (if any) of the Democratic candidates will end up getting zero state delegate equivalents?  (Meaning, they don't hit 15% viability in a single precinct in the state.)  Looks like in the last Dem. Iowa caucus with more than 3 candidates (2008), Chris Dodd, in 6th place, did manage to get at least a few.  But Gravel and Kucinich both got zero.  Surely with 12 candidates this time, some of them will get zero state delegate equivalents.  I mean, is Bennet really going to get 15% anywhere?  What about Patrick?

Bennet and Patrick, Gabbard and Steyer are possibilities too. Everybody else probably has too much support.

[ElectionsGuy]

2nd last prediction before Monday, last will be Sunday night. I will also provide a full explanation of my thinking, though my confidence is medium to low.

Sanders: 26%
Biden: 19%
Buttigieg: 18%
Warren: 14%
Klobuchar: 12%
Yang: 5%
Steyer: 2%
Gabbard: 2%
Others: 1%

Sanders: 33%
Biden: 26%
Buttigieg: 23%
Warren: 10%
Klobuchar: 6%
Others: 2%

[Senator Spark]

First round:
Sanders - 27%
Buttigieg - 22%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 15%

Second round:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 26%
Buttigieg - 18%
Warren - 16%